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Amped

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  1. The HRDPS, which was the only model to show a precip bullseye over SW CT, shows another 2-5" across the area already hit, similar to the HRRR.
  2. Rename the area DC, so it splits in half and misses them.
  3. Still trying to back-build, with the next round incoming from NJ in a few hours.
  4. [img]https://i.imgur.com/PDY5zdw.png[/img]Wow, stay away from that Lake Zoer area.
  5. Looks like the dryslot going to win. Big totals are going to be confined to the 81 crew.
  6. Just got back from WV. Lots of downpours along I70, radar not doing it justice.
  7. The 6z Icon keeps the track inland through PA NY and NE. This would mean a lot more impact for the Mid Atlantic and New England. Also note that both the gfs and Icon both handle the NS differently on their 6z runs and show an amped up troff over the great lakes, which allows for this track.
  8. Looks more like a center reform. The bands have become elongated too.
  9. Or two centers wobbling around each other. The HAFS-B showed this.
  10. It's trying to drift back to the west the last few frames.
  11. Results in a much stronger landfall. Edit: Actually only slightly stronger. But further offshore track should in theory give it a lot more time to reorganize.
  12. UKMET is the northeast outlier for the first time ever.
  13. Bizarre complex track shown by the GFS and CMC. The troff lifts out and the 250mb flow shifts to the NW due to the ridge over the Central US. Then a tutt forms over FL while a ridge builds over the Carolinas, shifting 250mb winds back to the ESE forcing forcing the storm back to the west. Almost a 180 degree shift in the 250mb winds between hr 60 and 102
  14. Hurricane Ian made a turn into the SC coast but it wasn't as sharp. I suspect this turn is being overdone by models and it ends up over E NC day 5.
  15. Kind of a broad circulation and there will be some shear in the northern Gulf. It's hitting a pretty storm surge prone area though. Luckily not very populated.
  16. Going to feel like fall tomorrow when it's 95.
  17. Feels like hell out there
  18. Radar in upstate NY is nuts. Looks like something you'd see in TX or OK
  19. I did think it was moving faster for some reason. Anyway the winds didn't make it too far inland. Looks likes they've died down considerably.
  20. Seems to always happen with fast moving systems. IKE produced lots of 70mph+ gusts in PA and OH
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