Amped
-
Posts
14,168 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Amped
-
12km Nam goes sub 950mb this run. This probably means the 3km NAM will show a wormhole to another dimension.
-
Cuba radar isn't showing any sort of an eyewall yet. Probably means there's still multiple and or misaligned centers. High tchp and consolidation are allowing it to deepen anyway.
-
GFS has less Yucatan interaction this run hence, a stronger system. It's still spinning up satellite vortices like you get extra credit for it.
-
Is there any model guidance that shows the forward speed at landfall. This one seems like it gets from 150 miles west of Tampa to almost the GA border in 6hrs. Maybe close to 30mph?
-
Any wobble to the north during the next 12-18 hrs will have a large impact on how much time it spends over the Yucatan.
-
Global models have been in the 960s through 980s with the landfall pressure.. HAFS-B is pretty much in line with that this run.
-
The band also still looking linear, and shows no sign of trying to bend or wrap around the center
-
No sign of a center on radar. Things can change fast though. Hopefully the 18z euro intensity isn't accurate.
-
A lot of uncertainty here, the ceiling is high here, but so is the potential for organizational issue. Also I'm not buying the tracks that go inland over the Yucatan yet.
-
Icon hits Tampa, Jacksonville and the GA/SC coast pretty hard. Even if it's just a Cat2 with a large wind field that could cause a lot more damage than a Cat4 tracking over Apalachee Bay.
-
The GFS and the Hurricane models were all initialized way too strong. The Hurricane models were also initialized way too far NW.
-
HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.
-
The modeled track kind of shows it taking an eastward jog out to near Jamaica then turning back wnw into the Yucatan channel.
-
6z hurricane models are pretty intense. Some have it a major before entering the Gulf.
-
Here's my entirely subjective extrapolation of the circulation center.
-
Big connective bust the last few hours. Also I'm seeing hints of a circulation forming east of the NI/HU border on the shortwave IR.
-
The GFS and euro agree on the track and 500mb pattern now.
-
Eps still has a lot of members near Tampa.
-
A lot of difference in the handling of the pattern. Gfs and Ukmet digging a troff along the southern apps, other models, not so much. Cmc and ecmwf AI have a cutoff low over TX/OK
-
00z EPS shows a lot more support for a storm in the central gulf.
-
Cmc has Cat1 winds in Tampa despite landfall being in the panhandle.
-
It's our only trackable threat at the moment. Euro at least has something even though it's pretty weak.
-
Getting a bit to close to rhe Nola metro for comfort. Thankfully it won't be as strong as Ida.
-
Getting a downpour and plenty of thunder in columbia now.
-
Lucked out so far with the worst of this second round staying over Long Island.
