Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Just the Extrap
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Are we taking bets on if when the VAX radar goes down? Update: It stop transmitting at 02:12UTC
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It's got less than 2 hrs left. I think it pretty much holds.
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Does it really matter if it's 941.8 or 940.2? It's just noise.
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Pretty steady now. Radar seems to show a wobble to the west the last few frames, puts it back on course to go straight over Perry.
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Valdosta GA, Augusta GA, and Colombia SC could all get hurricane force gusts.
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18z GFS is about half a county west of 12z. The eye still goes straight over Perry more or less.
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Hmon has been consistent with the landfall intensity, and it might end up being fairly accurate.
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Luckily it only has until 10 or 11pm tops before it gets on land.
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GFS is slower and stronger, but still loves Perry FL just as much as 12z and 18z.
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Agreed the dry air source to the east has been effectively cut off by the band from the south wrapping up the east side of the storm. Any dry air left in the core is being mixed out by the minute.
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Just my opinion but it looks like the dry air is on its last stand and the banding structure is looks robust and locked in place. Usually this indicates the start of a 12=24hr RI period.
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Everyone backing off on RI just as the IR is going beast mode.
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Latest drop was 973mb.
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1 out of the 6 of them has.
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Radar bands filling in the SE quad of the storm. There are a couple of hints of overshooting tops forming on IR. Maybe a connective burst going off there in the next few hours.
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From what I can tell the GFS Euro Gefs and EPS all track close to Perry or slightly west. Also that's the eastern edge of the NHC cone, so I'm not going to interrogate anyone who favors that track.
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975mb dropsonde.
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One hottower stuck in the middle of the eye. It has little if any meteorological impact, but is great at blocking our view of the eye while it forms.
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NHC should be having a fun debate on whether to extend the hurricane warnings into Tampa just for the storm surge.
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The southern side of the storm looks improved. There's some banding now instead of just paint spatter.
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There is an inverted troff on the NW side of this storm as it makes landfall. That may produce a more onshore wind trajectory to the west of the track than you'd typically expect.
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Already up to 36TJ IKE. Expecting a huge increase in the next 24 hrs with the increase in strength and size. https://x.com/hwind/status/1838938345520435559
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Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning.
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I can finally find the center on Cuban radar.
