Amped

First flurries of the year

Rafael was not supposed to be this strong in the gulf.

GFS fantasy land tracks right over our favorite FL town again.

Funny I was in downtown Columbia all night and it didn't look like this. Maybe a tenth that bright.

Never wanted a power outage so badly

There's still a huge waterspout outbreak going on off Floridas east coast.

Coming for Orlando and Daytona next.

The rainband headed for Orlando later tonight. Hopefully the heaviest part misses to the north, but it does seem to be having a hard time advancing north on radar.

I think it made landfall over the southern half of Longboat Key, which is mysteriously missing from the COD radar map.

Got my "Eye of the storm" playlist ready.

The eastern part of the eye is a couple frames away from Siesta Key

The main rainband looks like it will pass directly over Tampa. Models were showing 10"-15" rainfall totals in that band.

Modeling didn't do a bad job. The tornado threat was overlooked by a lot of people who were distracted with things like ERCs, Recon passes, ADT numbers, and nitpicking every run of every model.

The north wobble might be starting to correct itself, it's back on course towards Bradenton/ Longboat key. Pretty much the consensus over the last couple days.