Gray-Wolf

I've now realised that what has happened is that , post 07' ,I was keeping an eye out for the return of such extreme forcings ( as we saw in 2007?) to cause us to see another record low 'step down' in ice extent/area/volume, but in reality the pack was becoming conditioned to see '07' scale losses in an 'average summer'? But this year is not setting up to be 'an average summer' is it? With us still seeing a 'perfect melt storm-esque' synoptic hammering the ice we appear to be building melt momentum for at least record low sea ice territory if not worse? Forecasts show lots of heat , from the land masses, flowing over sectors of the basin these coming 10 days and this is coupled with peak insolation for the rest of the pack sitting under HP domination? By months end , with Hudson & Baffin then in play, we will be seeing big daily losses and an ever more opened pack ( with plenty of 'dark water' to capture the suns energy) in time for 'peak melt' If ,by Aug, we see home grown cyclones in the basin then the 'bottom melt' phase of the season will be devastating considering the warmth in the waters the ice will be tossed around in as the lows pass over. We'll see what tRump & co. have to say if we do end on a disastrous low figure this year & see even more energy flood the Arctic atmosphere as the basin tries to prepare for re-freeze.

So the 'Perfect melt storm' synoptic rolls on with the high intensifying over the pole this coming 10 days. You need remember it takes 70 cals of energy to melt a 1cm cube of ice (due to the demands of the latent heat of fusion) but add another 70 cals to that water and it warms to 70c!!! Unlike 07' when we had the last 'Perfect Melt storm' there is already open water both around ,and inside, the pack this year so we will see warmed 'kill zones' for ice to float into later in the season ( unlike 07') Should those warmed waters help feed cyclones over Aug/Sept, tossing the ice around in those warmed waters, then we will be in serious trouble!!!

And still we continue on the 'perfect melt storm' trajectory! The latest outlooks place a big high right across the pole for the most intense dose of solar that the season has to offer!! Let's not forget that the pole gets its solar 24/7 this time of year so that is a lot of energy pilling onto the thin ice and a healthy export of our oldest ice through Fram. If we get through to July in similar shape I think it will be safe to call a challenge on 2012's assortment of records?

Indeed forkyfork! Not just the forcing toward Fram exit all the way from the Pacific entrance but the conditioning this will put on a pack that is mainly small floes 'glued together' by late formed ice? Such a dynamic fragmentation event will also lead to mechanical weathering of floes as they bump and barge one another on their travels? Then we have Barentsz and the open waters maintained over winter ( again) hinting at what awaits ice pushed into that region? 'Collapse and spread' of ice entering open water may see extent/area figures but this will be temporary and illusory. Something feels 'off' about this melt season? I do not know if it is the record summer the southern Hemisphere just had, and the fear of such conditions transfering North with the sun or the strange amounts of High Pressure across the hemisphere? The 'Greenland high' caused issues across Greenland in 2012 and now , after a few years of it not performing, we see it apparently back to strength? Then there is the 'Perfect melt storm synoptic'? If we are still able to see such develop, and we have not mangled the atmospheric too much for such to develop, then we are still in its return period......

Well we are certainly still on track for a 'perfect melt storm' summer......just without the 'perfect melt storm' synoptics??? Is this what the last 5 years of 'winter preconditioning' was all about? Taking us to the point where an 'average summer' feeds us a sub 2007 finish and , over time, the 'Blue Ocean' event?

Well I think we will look to 2018 as a precursor for 2019? The continued Chinese 'clean up' of their pollution continues to grow and now the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation is positive ( since 2014) the extra heat reaching the ocean surface now stays at the surface instead of being buried in the ocean as it is under I.P.O. negative....... only another 25yrs of that to come and , I'd guess, a continuation of China cleaning up its act? So we begin to shed the heat accrued over the noughties in the Pacific whilst the incoming solar stays at the surface to interact with the atmosphere even as more and more solar gets through to the surface as 'dimming' reduces........ That's the Pacific Basin and its part in it all but what of the rest of the globe? How will Arctic Sea Ice fare this year? Already both ocean entrances are near ice free and so soaking up the incoming solar. With surface warmth ,under IPO positive, also flowing into the basin from the Bering side how low will our ice go? ( we are still in the return period for the 'Perfect Melt Storm' as well) Then we have Yamal. 3 years ago ( nearly) over 7,000 'pingo like structures' grew out of the permafrost. We ( I'm sure) have all seen images of the 'blowouts' of such structures back in 2015? Prof Semiletov ( Shakova and Semiletov?) tells us it is 3 years from formation to eruption so what happens this year across Yamal? If Shakova is correct and there is a huge reserve of 'free methane' capped below the permafrost ice then what if one , or more ,of these structures taps into that reserve? Yamal is a major natural gas producer and Russia has just committed to year round export from there........do they think they might lose their reserve if they do not act fast? With the Southern hemisphere posting such a hot summer are we to see a repeat in our hemisphere over the coming months?

We are also seeing some massive temp anoms across areas of the basin so not only do we enter melt season lowest on record but with some pretty aggressive conditions on the ground?