ncforecaster89

I'm posting this comment in the banter thread, as I would suspect any convo regarding chasers (more personally) would be more applicable outside the main storm specific thread. That said, I wanted to make it abundantly clear that I was (and am) genuinely excited for Josh to have intercepted the eye and core of Dorian. Unlike some, I don't get jealous of others' chasing success. Why should they? It has no relevancy on their own chase abilities. My wholly scientically objective observation that the winds don't appear to have been any higher in Marsh Harbour than those I happened to observe on the western-most portion of Mexico Beach, shouldn't be taken as somehow an attempt at minimizing the effects on Marsh Harbour. The only relevancy to Josh in such evaluation is simply an objective review of the winds he documented on video. As stated multiple times already, I feel he captured genuine Cat 5 winds on video...which is a VERY rare occurrence. It makes zero difference that I happened to be the one who documented the highest winds in Michael or that Josh happened to be the one documenting Dorian in MH. The only relevancy between the two is that each intercept location experienced the greatest impact from the two storms, respectively. Thus, my own personal interest in knowing what the peak MSW might've been at each specific locality. Given Josh is typically in the core of a major landfalling hurricane at or near ground-zero, I can understand why some might misinterpret my objective analysis of the peak winds that most likely were encountered in that area, and falsely presume I have some stupid ulterior motive or "agenda". Nothing could be further from the truth! Even when some resorted to unjustified personal attacks when I respectfully argued that all the objective scientific data clearly suggested Patricia wasn't a Cat 5 at landfall, I didn't waver on my wholly objective opinion. Subsequently, the NHC agreed with my precise 130 kt estimate. Similar instances occurred in discussion of Michael's landfall intensity. Yet again, my best educated guess (based solely on the objective scientific data) was validated in the NHC TCR. Now, some are taking exception to my objective viewpoint that Marsh Harbour didn't get anywhere close to those one-minute 10 m estimated MSWs. Unlike with Michael, we have a lot less access to all the available data, whereby making a specific best educated estimate of the MSW encountered in MH is far more problematic. That's why I've asked if anyone knows of any additional data that may be available? Regardless, I'm confident that MH saw a MSW of at least 140 kt. I don't personally consider chasing a sport, much less a competition with other chasers. In sequence of events, my initial goal is to either get into the eye or the area of strongest winds from a documentation standpoint. Secondly, record the barometric pressure at that location. Currently in the process of obtaining an anemometer to accurately record wind measurements in future intercepts. Next, to assist with search and rescue following a devastating event...followed by documentation of the aftermath. Lastly, I always have (since Katrina in 2005) and always will devote at least one full day to assisting with the cleanup. This is one thing I wish all chasers would do, and feel we all should do, considering we intentionally place ourselves in these areas of greatest impact and often times benefit from doing so. Regardless of the other ways we help, I still think it's the least we can do...but that's just me. This post is long enough. But, I just simply wanted to share my personal viewpoints on the contents contained herein to help those who might misinterpret them. Thanks for taking the time to read it. Hope all have a great rest of the day!

Simply a matter of time before SNE gets a repeat...

Actually, the NHC best track committee reduced the landfall intensity to 95 kt in MA, in their reanalysis. It's conceivable it was still a Cat 3 at landfall, but it has officially been reanalyzed to an upper-end Cat 2...borderline 3. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/UShurrs_detailed.html

Will this be the year?: A common refrain I presume is often heard across the North East coastal states during this time of year. Rightfully so, as it's just simply a matter of time before SNE receives another direct hurricane landfall, or strike, upon its shores. Based on the official HURDAT2 record (dating back to 1851), the statistical return period for a direct hurricane landfall is once every 10 years. Consequently, SNE is well overdue for just such an event, given it last occured in 1991. The same applies for a major hurricane (MH) landfall, with a return rate of 56 years, that last took place in 1954. Of course, we all understand that these statistics don't neccesitate that a hurricane will make a landfall within the aforementioned calculated return intervals. Case in point, three out of the four hurricane seasons between 1893 and 1896 had a direct hurricane landfall somewhere in SNE. Ironically, it was immediately followed by an astonishing 38 year gap between direct landfalls (1896 to 1934). It's also interesting to note that two different seasons in the aforementioned historical record (1869 & 1954) produced multiple SNE landfalls; each containing both a category-three and a category-two hurricane. Ultimately, the right atmospheric and oceanic conditions will conspire to add yet another SNE hurricane landfall to the historical record and, in doing so, answering the original question in the affirmative! New England hurricane landfalls (1851-2018): 1858 Cat 1/2 (Storm 3) * 1869 Cat 3 (Storm 3) 1869 Cat 2 (Storm 10) 1879 Cat 1 (Storm 2) 1893 Cat 1 (Storm 4) 1894 Cat 1 (Storm 5) 1896 Cat 1 (Storm 2) 1924 Cat 1 (Storm 3) # 1934 Cat 1 (Storm 7) 1938 Cat 3 (Storm 6) 1944 Cat 2 (Storm 7) 1954 Cat 3 (Carol) 1954 Cat 2/3 (Edna) 1960 Cat 2 (Donna) 1969 Cat 1 (Gerda) 1976 Cat 1 (Belle) 1985 Cat 1 (Gloria) 1991 Cat 2 (Bob) 2012 Cat 1 (Sandy) # * Likely underestimated in reanalysis. # No direct landfall, but still delivered HF winds. Totals and return intervals of each: 19 H strikes (8.8 years) 17 Landfalls (9.9 years) 3 MHs (56.0 years) 9 Cat 2 or 3 (18.7 years)

15/7/3 May 1/0/0 June 1/0/0 July 2/1/0 August 3/2/1 September 4/3/1 October 3/1/1 November/December 1/0/0

You're reading my mind, as those are precisely the top candidates for most likely category-five hurricanes USA landfalls whose intensity was underestimated. Those aside, others listed in the early HURDAT2 records could've been underestimated due to lack of data, as well. The 1846 hurricane is one that has always fascinated me as a probable category five. Edit: Just realized the typo for the date of the hurricane referenced in the last sentence (meant the 1846 hurricane; not 1842).

Given that the majority of major hurricanes develop in the western Caribbean, during the month of October, the warm phase of the ENSO cycle is most influential in suppressing such activity...while the cool or neutral phase doesn’t have as profound of an effect. Moreover, the warm phase of the AMO is a significant driver of increased activity in the NATL basin throughout the season...to include the late season months of October and November. The beginning of the satellite era (1966 onward) is the point of delineation for me in determining the period whereby HURDAT2 is most reasonably accurate. Prior to that time, without satellite surveillance, it is a virtual certainty that many TCs (to include major hurricanes) went undetected, and many others’ intensity was likely underestimated; especially the further we go back in time. Of course, my definition of what characterizes being “reasonably accurate” might have a higher threshold than others...where some may consider the beginning of Recon flights in 1943, being a more reasonable standard in that regard. As you noted previously, more recent records indicate that the mainland USA experiences a category-five hurricane roughly every 30 years, on average. As such, it’s highly likely that there were additional category-five hurricane landfalls (at least 1 or 2) prior to the 1935 Great Labor Day hurricane...despite HURDAT2 showing no such occurrences for at least the 85 year period from 1851-1935.

Hi Liberty! I’ve done a lot of statistical research into NATL basin activity via HURDAT2 and other historical sources. These records seem to indicate that the recent apparent increase of major hurricanes (MH) during the month of October isn’t that unusual or even anomalous. Here’s an overview of the known October MH activity in the NATL basin since 1851. It’s important to note that it’s highly likely...more like a certainty...that many other MHs are unaccounted for in the historical record prior to the satellite era, beginning in 1966. Moreover, it’s also most probable that a large number of the known hurricanes and major hurricanes likely had a higher peak intensity than presently listed in HURDAT2; especially the further it goes back in time. With that in mind, I’m also listing all the conservatively estimated 90 kt hurricanes from 1851-1910 and the 95 kt hurricanes from 1911-2000. The years highlighted in bold correspond to the seasons in which the strongest hurricane of that year occurred in either October or November (48 out of the 168 seasons since 1851). 1852 = 90 kt; 1853 = 90 kt; 1858 = 90 kt; 1859 = 110 kt; 1860 = 90 kt, 90 kt 1865 = 90 kt; 1866 = 120 kt; 1867 = 110 kt; 1868 = 90 kt, 90 kt; 1869 = 90 kt; 1870 = 100 kt, 90 kt, 90 kt; 1873 = 100 kt; 1874 = 90 kt (NOV); 1875 = 90 kt; 1876 = 90 kt, 100 kt; 1877 = 100 kt; 1878 = 120 kt, 100 kt, 90 kt; 1879 = 90 kt (NOV); 1880 = 120 kt; 1882 = 120 kt; 1884 = 90 kt; 1886 = 105 kt; 1887 = 90 kt; 1888 = 95 kt; 1893 = 105 kt, 115 kt; 1894 = 105 kt, 115 kt, 95 kt; 1895 = 90 kt; 1898 = 115 kt; 1899 = 95 kt; 1902 = 90 kt; 1905 = 105 kt; 1906 = 105 kt; 1908 = 95 kt, 90 kt; 1909 = 105 kt, 90 kt (NOV); 1910 = 130 kt; 1912 = 100 kt (NOV); 1916 = 105 kt, 95 kt; 1921 = 120 kt; 1922 = 95 kt; 1924 = 145 kt; 1926 = 130 kt; 1932 = 150 kt; 1933 = 110 kt; 1934 = 100 kt (NOV); 1939 = 120 kt; 1941 = 105 kt; 1942 = 95 kt (NOV); 1943 = 95 kt; 1944 = 125 kt; 1947 = 105 kt; 1948 = 110 kt; 1949 = 95 kt; 1950 = 95 kt, 100 kt, 115 kt; 1952 = 125 kt; 1954 = 115 kt; 1955 = 95 kt; 1959 = 105 kt; 1961 = 110 kt, 140 kt; 1962 = 95 kt, 100 kt; 1963 = 125, 95 kt; 1964 = 130 kt, 110 kt; 1966 = 130 kt; 1975 = 120 kt; 1985 = 105 kt (NOV); 1988 = 125 kt; 1994 = 95 kt (NOV); 1995 = 130 kt, 110 kt; 1996 = 100 kt; 1998 = 155 kt (NOV); 1999 = 95 kt, 135 kt (NOV); 2000 = 120 kt; 2001 = 125 kt, 120 kt (NOV); 2002 = 125 kt; 2003 = 110 kt; 2005 = 160 kt, 100 kt; 2008 = 115 kt, 125 kt (NOV); 2011 = 120 kt, 100 kt; 2012 = 100 kt; 2014 = 125 kt; 2015 = 135 kt; 2016 = 145 kt, 120 kt, 100 kt; 2017 = 100 kt; 2018 = 140 kt. As can be ascertained from these data, the seemingly increases in late-season/October MH frequency is more the result of much improved detection and verification of such storms, as well as a recency bias. The biggest takeaway for me is the realization that a very significant number of NATL basin major hurricanes occur after 9/30.

That's definitely a borderline case as the max FLWs were 117 kt, which corresponds to 105 kt at the surface. The satellite intensity estimates were the equivalent of 115 kt...so they went with a compromise between the two. Given the continued drop of the central pressure from 936 to 934 mb following the aforementioned RECON ob, it's certainly possible...if not likely, it achieved Cat 4 right before landfall.

Listed below are a few NATL basin hurricanes whose current HURDAT2 intensity estimates merits a revision. 1) Hurricane Charley (2004): Suggest a 135 kt MAX intensity for first SW FL landfall. Based on a 148 kt 700 mb FLW measured by RECON, its rapid intensification, small contracting eye, and tiny RMW (at the time of landfall at Cayo Costa, FL)...a revised intensity of 135 kt (up from 130 kt) is most applicable. 2) Hurricane OPAL (1995): Suggest a 140 kt MAX intensity in N central GOM (1000z/4th). Based on a 152 kt 700 mb FLW measured by RECON, its rapid intensification to 916 mb, small contracting eye, and compact RMW (about 12 hours prior to landfall in the NW FL Panhandle), it's highly likely Opal achieved a peak intensity of 140 kt and category-five on the SSHWS (up from 130 kt). 3) Hurricane Marilyn (1995): Suggest a 100 kt/CAT 3 intensity for St. Thomas, USVI. It's highly likely that Marilyn was a 100 kt category-three hurricane (up from 95 kt) when it blasted St. Thomas, USVI with its NE eyewall. At the time, RECON measured 700 mb FLWs between 105-110 knots, while the hurricane was undergoing a period of rapid intensification. Moreover, the official ASOS at the airport in St. Thomas recorded two-minute sustained winds of 90 kts. Given these data, it's most probable that even stronger winds impacted the immediate shoreline at that time of Marilyn's closest approach and greatest impact (0430z/16th). References: NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports for each respective hurricane shown above. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=1995&basin=atl

Just a quick post to congratulate all the members who've had a fantastic and most deserved (after watching SNE benefit time and time again the past 5 years or so) snowfall/winter season! I enjoy big snowfall events, in general, but have to be more judicious with chases limited to historic blizzard-type events. This typically requires a chase in SNE...of which no such opportunity presented itself, this season, surprisingly. Then again, that regression to the mean was overdue considering the past 5 seasons I've been chasing in the NE. Once again, very happy for the NNE crew. Hoping next season provides another opportunity or two to visit this part of the country!

Been waiting, impatiently, all winter for this type of event. I’m taking all the blame for all the heartache everyone in SNE has had to endure. Didn’t realize until now, that all I had to do was book a non-refundable trip in the opposite direction (heading to the Fl Panhandle) to entice the atmosphere to spur up a big event! My bad!!

For me, we’re still too far out in time to even provide a reasonable best educated guess regarding what may be in store for the upcoming season. Come June 1, we’ll have a much better idea of where we stand relative to the state of the important atmospheric and oceanic indicators, and their likely influence on the peak months of the 2019 season. As such, thought I’d share a few interesting continental USA hurricane landfall statistics (dating back to 1851) that are relative to the 2019 season. 1) There have been at least one major hurricane landfall, for three consecutive years/seasons, on 5 different occasions. These periods are 1854-1856, 1898-1900, 1915-1919, 1947-1950, and 1957-1961. 2) There have been at least one category 4 or greater landfall, in three consecutive seasons, on two different occasions. These are the periods of 1947-1950 & 1959-1961. In addition, the 1957 and 1958 seasons each had a hurricane that struck the continental USA as a borderline category three/four hurricane; Audrey in 1957 as a direct landfall and Helene in 1958 as a powerful Cat 4 hurricane that hit the NC coastline with 110 kt maximum sustained winds...while remaining just offshore. 3) Each of the two periods, of at least 3 consecutive years with a category four hurricane landfall, had at least one make landfall somewhere on the east coast of the USA. The Big Question: Will the 2019 Atlantic basin hurricane season produce the continental USA hurricane landfalls required to join, any or all of, the 3 year periods listed above?

Thanks... greatly appreciate the kind words! And, your own appreciation for the gift of a child. Eagerly look forward to each opportunity to see our baby girl, inside the womb, via ultrasound. Given the developing El Nino, the probability of another significant winter storm in the SE, this winter, is certainly elevated. Will always choose my family over a prospective major weather event. That said, and as you articulated, there will be many more opportunities; especially since I'm willing to document them as far north as Maine. Would share local storm effects from here in Wilmington, but SENC has got that covered, and the highlights consist of a very cold, wind-driven rain.

For those who might be interested, here's the link to a list of the current record snowfall event for each individual county in NC: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/snowfall-extremes/NC/3 For instance, Lenoir holds the record for Caldwell county at 17". Morganton is the record holder for Burke county with 19.3". On a personal note, I opted not to chase this event as it would cause me to miss an ultrasound appointment for my wife who's 21.5 weeks pregnant. Lastly, I'm wishing everyone luck and hope all your weenie dreams come to fruition!

Hurricane Diana of 9/11/1984 to 9/13/1984 was the reason I pursued my meteorology degree at NC State and became obsessed with hurricanes.

I just secured a hotel room in Beaufort, for Wednesday pm until Friday at noon, so I'm hoping they don't close it.

Another important consideration and hope is that it can come ashore during daylight hours.

Actually, there's still time for a very close brush...which would be the optimal solution/best case to spare the NC coast the absolute worst effects.

On the forecast track, it's most certainly possible...maybe even likely. It really depends on the actual intensity at landfall, the translational speed as it moves further inland, and its precise trek there. With Fran, it was moving at about 17 mph and deep convection from the NE quadrant moved into the city. Edit: Should add that the rate of weakening/filling is another determining factor.

Hi. I didn't forget about those areas, as I was referencing the area of highest wind gusts. Those winds were in the NE quadrant from Wrightsville beach northwards to North Topsail beach. Of course, your area saw extreme winds, as well.

This map isn't entirely accurate as the strongest wind gusts were measured at Figure Eight Island at 122 mph. That's what was actually measured. The above map only has 90 mph there. Wilmington ASOS gusted to 86 mph. Winds obviously gusted much higher on the New Hanover county beaches, but less than 90 mph according to that map? Ridiculous!

I'll take the under on that intensity forecast. The HWRF has been notorious for overestimating intensity since its inception...not to say I would rule out the prospect of Florence being able to achieve cat 5 strength at its max intensity...won't be cat 5 at landfall, naturally. High-end category four hurricane would be the more likely scenario...at peak intensity...would be my best educated guess at this point. Then again, it's not totally inconceivable that Florence may not be able to regain its former strength if the inner core continues to be disrupted and elongated. Plenty of time to observe the inevitable, regardless.

I'm enjoying reading the unique hurricane experiences so many of you have shared in this thread. This is somewhat hypocritical, as I will do my best to be in the absolute center of the eye if at all possible, but I too would recommend those who haven't truly experienced the full force of an intense hurricane to be wary of its power to change lives and the landscape where it barrels through. Edit: Despite having endured/intercepted more than 25 hurricanes, to date, I always feel genuine fear prior to each one...realizing just how destructive and deadly they can ALL be.

So happy to see/read so many of you cashed in on this event! Personally, drove 19 hours back to Plymouth yesterday morning...after being back home only 36 hours from covering the two previous storms (3/1-10/18). After napping 2 hours, awoke and dressed. At the very moment I was setting up my tripod, a big rumble of thunder (8th or 9th separate event w/ TSSN)! Consequently, just missed capturing it by mere seconds. From there, it was onto Brant Rock in Marshfield to film the surge and blizzard conditions...at the coast. Here's raw and completely unedited visual documentation of the powerful blizzard that hammered the Massachusetts coast, yesterday morning. https://youtu.be/3RqE7jk8R48