ncforecaster89

Hi Roger! Hope you’re doing well. 25/12/6 https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1797020748181086679

That’s amazing that you have experienced, firsthand, the vast majority of the greatest seasons of snowfall in the Philadelphia region. Thank you for the kind words as well.

Only if it ultimately leads to a “happy ending!”

Hi Everyone, I’m in the exhaustive and tedious process of compiling and tabulating historical/climatological “snowfall” data for numerous U.S. eastern cities. This is the first one I’ve completed thus far, and thought you might find it as interesting as I do, myself. Here’s to hoping you can add to the following listing of the “top ten greatest individual snowstorms” before this particular season comes to a conclusion. 1) Philadelphia, PA: A) Latest 30 year seasonal snowfall average: 1994-2023: 23.0” (689.1”) Average seasonal snowfall for full period of record: 1885-2023: 22.8” (3163.4”) C) Top ten snowiest seasons: 2009-2010: 78.7” 2013-2014: 68.0” 1995-1996: 65.5” 1898-1899: 55.4” 1977-1978: 54.9” 1960-1961: 49.1” 2002-2003: 46.3” 1917-1918: 44.9” 1966-1967: 44.3” 1981-1982: 43.9” D) Top five least snowiest seasons: 1972-1973: Trace 2022-2023: 0.3” 2019-2020: 0.3” 1997-1998: 0.8” 1949-1950: 2.0” E) Top ten greatest individual snowstorms: 1. 31.0” (Jan. 6-8, 1996) 2. 28.5” (Feb. 5-6, 2010) 3. 23.2” (Dec. 19-20, 2009) 4. 22.4” (Jan. 23-24, 2016) 5. 21.2” (Feb. 11-12, 1983) 6. 21.0” (Dec. 25-26, 1909) 7. 19.4” (April 3-4, 1915) 8. 18.9” (Feb. 12-14, 1899) 9. 18.7” (Feb. 16-17, 2003) 10. 16.7” (Jan. 22-24, 1935)

No doubt I’m going to have to go back through each individual year to verify the accuracy of the data I compiled. Thank you so much for catching those inaccuracies. I shouldn’t have relied on second-hand sources. Simply trusted the data…as they had already compiled the yearly totals for virtually every observing site in the nation. Thereby, saving myself a tremendous amount of time. I verified their totals for my home city (Wilmington, NC) and they matched perfectly. With that, I wrongly assumed the rest of the data for the other respective cities were entirely accurate as well.

Whoa! That’s a HUGE difference in totals. I relied entirely on the validity of the stats compiled at this particular website: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/philadelphia/most-yearly-snow Not sure where they got their numbers as they appear to be vastly inaccurate.

Hi Fozz, Here are the specific seasonal snowfall totals….during moderate El Niño episodes….for the two respective cities. Comparatively, the years of 1912 and 1914 stand out whereby the snowfall received in Philadelphia far exceeded the amounts recorded in Baltimore. Otherwise, they’re pretty close, overall. Philadelphia, PA: 2010: 1.5 67.3 1987: 1.2 28.2 1969: 1.1 27.9 1966:1.4 46.2 1964: 1.1 27.5 1914: 1.1 94.1 1912: 1.4. 73.9 365.1” (52.2”) Baltimore, MD: 2010: 1.5 58.1 1987: 1.2 41.7 1969: 1.1 23.3 1966: 1.4 53.2 1964: 1.1 42.9 1914: 1.1 26.0 1912: 1.4 27.8 1906: 1.3 19.5 1905: 1.1 27.6 320.1” (35.6”)

Hi everyone! Thought I’d simply share some of the statistical research I’ve been conducting most recently…examining the correlation between El Niño and seasonal snowfall in the Eastern U.S. Here’s the link to the post showing how each of the 5 selected Mid-Atlantic cities all saw a VERY significant decrease in seasonal snowfall during strong El Niño episodes. https://x.com/tbrite89/status/1751700478864265580?s=20 On the flip side, a few of the largest snowstorms occurred during a strong El Niño season such as 2016 and 1983. In essence, strong El Niño seasons are generally boom or bust and highly reliant on a KU event to achieve the climatological average.

Hi everyone! I pop in here occasionally whenever I’m visiting my wife’s parents and her family in Lancaster…usually around Christmas. That aside, I simply wanted to convey my great appreciation for your posts and respective first-hand updates (ground truth), so I can keep abreast on what they are experiencing there, as well. I had told them to expect 3-5”…with the potential for 6”…two days ago, and definitely hoping that verifies. If I’m not mistaken, it requires about those amounts to do good sledding. If that projection falls short, they’re going to be extremely disappointed. Feeling pretty good about it, right now, though. Hope it’s an over-performer for each of you. Thanks again, Tony

Sharing some of the extensive research I’ve conducted recently regarding hurricane strikes on the U.S. mainland…for the past 150 years. Didn’t go any further back due to the likelihood of missed hurricane landfalls prior to 1877.

Hi GaWx, Greatly appreciate the time and effort involved in such research. Although correct on your synopsis and the increased historical probability for a June TC/H strike on the mainland U.S. during EL Nino seasons, I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that many of the seasons you listed weren’t an El Nino at the ASO tri-monthly. Those years being 1865, 1880, 1887, 1913, 1929, 1939, 1958, and 1968. That’s a very important distinction as the ASO value has shown the best correlation with effects on NATL basin TC activity and is generally used in such analysis, as a result. The main reason being attributed to the way that the atmosphere behaves as it transitions to a stronger +ENSO event through the Fall and early winter. Here is a list of all El Nino seasons (1851-2022) defined as above (with corresponding ASO value): 1852: 0.5 1855: 0.5 1864: 0.6 1877: 2.2 1884: 0.6 1885: 0.8 1888: 1.3 1896: 1.2 1899: 0.8 1900: 0.5 1902: 1.6 1904: 0.6 1905: 1.4 1914: 0.8 1918: 0.8 1923: 0.7 1925: 0.7 1930: 1.1 1940: 0.8 1941: 0.9 1951: 1.0 1953: 0.8 1957: 1.3 1963: 1.2 1965: 1.9 1969: 0.8 1972: 1.6 1976: 0.6 1977: 0.6 1982: 1.6 1986: 0.7 1987: 1.6 1991: 0.6 1994: 0.6 1997: 2.1 2002: 1.0 2004: 0.7 2006: 0.5 2009: 0.7 2015: 2.2 2018: 0.5

Roger, CSU updated their forecast to 15/7/3.

13/5/2. Edit: Just noticed two others posted those numbers before me. Consequently, I’m modifying it to: 13/6/2

Given the option to amend my earlier forecast, I’m simply going to add one additional hurricane…as I’ve been wavering between 8 and 9, since my original post). 19/9/4

19/8/4