ncforecaster89

That’s what’s occurring just N of Wilmington, in Hampstead. Sleet coming down extremely hard; wasting serious snow amounts.

It’ll take 6.5” at Wilmington to become a top 10 event. The record is 15.3” on 12/22-24/1989.

To be fair, the advancement in computer processing power/modeling has dramatically improved our forecast accuracy, by an incalculable margin. The larger issues relate to both too much public accessibility to long range modeling (and the misuse, thereof) and poor messaging. In this social media age, too many content creators (or what I like to call socialmediarologists) are most interested in engagement farming and it hurts the integrity of the science and trust within the general public, at large. In addition, most don’t truly comprehend/appreciate the immense complexities involved with attempting to predict the weather, accurately, at even the short range. The truth of the matter is that it will always be an inexact science…yet it’s truly amazing how much progress has been made within just the past 30 years. I’ll conclude by stating that not a one of us meteorologists could consistently outperform the more reliable models…which is why we have them in the first place.

Bad sign to be honest and is likely a direct result of the aforementioned ingestion of actual in-situ data. It’s not too unusual to see such adjustments in the 60-84 hour range for that very reason. Hence, why I stated we’ve entered the critical 24 hour period for potential significant adjustments and usually a greater consensus amongst the deterministic guidance. Being that I live near Wilmington, NC, I’m going to take that “drink” @calculus1offered a few minutes ago!

Not necessary. But thanks anyway. I’ve been doing this for more than 30 years. As such, I know better than to put too much emphasis on any particular solution at these ranges. I was making an objective factual statement that we are just now entering the critical 24 hour period where the respective deterministic guidance typically builds a greater consensus because of the influx of actual in-situ data via sampling of the energy out W.

We’re still a relatively long ways out to be forecasting precise snowfall amounts. That said, I’d go with 2-4” for Wilmington, NC at this particular time. Should begin to see an ever-growing model consensus during the next 24 hours as the energy gets better sampled by the sondes.

Looking at the NAM beyond 48 hours is fools gold. The same applies to the Kuchera snow maps. If you want best accuracy, use 10:1 around here.

Suppression will cause depression

There is a pretty good consensus, currently, with regard to forecast track progression of the low and corresponding area of heaviest snow shield…as can be seen below. Still ample time to change, obviously.

Here is the 10:1 snow mean.

I saw 8” on the Outer Banks in a middle January winter storm in 2018. Also, it was accompanied by thundersnow and 30 mph wind gusts at Kitty Hawk. Nothing like that since on the Outer Banks.

I respectfully disagree, the same synoptic pattern can still produce a 1989 redux. It’s a rare event for a reason, but it’s happened before and you can be certain it will happen again. Could be next week or 50 years from now, but the climate hasn’t changed that remarkably nor will it.

Quick off-topic question: Is WeatherBell that much better than Weather Models? I just purchased access to the latter this evening based on a few others preference for it. I really like the looks of these WxBell graphics you’re posting.

Me, too! But, I’m not looking at any deterministic runs until we’re inside 186 hours and even then, we need to be within 96 hours to really trust the signal. Still a long ways to go. That said, it’s better to see something at 200 hours than nothing at all. Just trying to keep things in their proper perspective.