TerryM
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About TerryM
- Birthday 06/16/1946
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An interesting comment at Neven's theorizes that Aug & Sept CH4 levels pack additional punch in the Arctic because the low solar angle forces photons through much more of the GHG polluted atmosphere. Terry
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I believe the downturn then flattening of CH4 is usually ascribed to the chaotic period following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Whether CH4 levels are following or driving global temperature rise might make an interesting subject by itself. Howard predicates his argument on the concept that at ~ 2C runaway feedbacks occur causing additional warming. Hansen and colleges see the danger at +1.8C with S&S even lower. If CH4 pushes us to one of these tipping points in 10 years or 20 years the 100 year GWP of CH4 obviously isn't of concern. The IPCC's latest figures are 10yr - 108, 20 yr - 86 and 100yr - 34 times the GHG value of CO2. Shindell et al don't provide 10 year figures but for 20 and 100yr horizons they arrive at figures of 105 and 33 respectively. Howard quotes the IPCC: The IPCC further concludes that at the 10-year timescale, the current global release of methane from all anthropogenic sources exceeds (slightly) all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions as agents of global warming; that is, methane emissions are more important (slightly) than carbon dioxide emissions for driving the current rate of global warming. At the 20-year timescale, total global emissions of methane are equivalent to over 80% of global carbon dioxide emissions. and notes that while long term climate change is driven by CO2 the immediate response is to CH4 and black carbon. He then quotes Shindell's report which was accepted by the UN in 2012: unless emissions of methane and black carbon are reduced immediately, the Earth's average surface temperature will warm by 1.5°C by about 2030 and by 2.0°C by 2045 to 2050 whether or not carbon dioxide emissions are reduced. His fear is that one of the tipping points will be reached within a 20 year time frame making the 100 year responses moot. Seeing the CH4 increases since 2010 and attributing them to recent fracking in the States he believes that we could reach 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2035. My own fear is based on the probability that, particularly in the light of the Ukraine situation, Europe will embrace widespread fracking & they won't be any better at capturing emissions than the US has been. Long Term the problem is certainly CO2. If a tipping point is reached because of CH4 and black carbon the long term doesn't matter. all quotes from from http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/ese3.35#ese335-bib-0034 Terry
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My bad. The correct linkage is below http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/ese3.3 As Chubbs pointed out it compares the damage done by NG losses and finds that even coal is a preferable heat source, Terry
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A new paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/ese3. shows that leakage from fracking operations may be so extensive that rather than using the 100yr equivalent figures for CH4 to CO2 the much higher 20yr figures will come into play. The paper is not long and it's an easy read. Terry
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You probably lost the thread in the 1,500,000 + hits since the site started this Feb. You can usually keep up with everything if you devote an hour or so to it each day. A few years ago this was an active site hosting more than a few active threads with good information being passed back and forth. Today I spend far more time at Neven's. Terry
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Nice to see this thread has resurfaced. Vergent, now over at Neven's Forum, has posted an interesting finding that the "blow out vents" which we worried about when they expanded from 10M to a 1 kM size are now reported to be 150 kM across. A shame that some of the best posters have moved on to other sites. Terry
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The HTM also occurred relatively shortly after the ESAS was inundated. According to S&S the thermal pulse from that shock warming has been traveling downward ever since. I assume that the Mackenzie Delta Region and other shallow Arctic basins suffer the same conditions. We're talking about two separate heat pulses, the one that occurred as water levels rose & the modern one, both squeezing the permafrost & hydrate cap from above against the geo-heating from below. Add in a Storegga event or two to stir things up (check the Pingo features) & we've got real problems. We haven't reached HTM conditions yet, at least in Greenland, but could in very short order. When Flade Isblink melts out (It was -10 yesterday ~20C above normal), all bets are off. Skier Not following the 3 km comment- we're in very shallow waters. Terry
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Chris R has a nice piece at http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2012/12/something-wicked-this-way-comes.html He discounts the possibility of a major methane release based as far as I can tell mainly on the fact that there wasn't one during the HTM and I'm not sure the HTM is comparable.since it was so much closer to the time that the ESAS was inundated. I think he's a little optimistic but he provides plenty of sources and is definitely worth a read. Terry
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I'd have to guess that the geologist was misquoted: “We don't have proof in the geological record that any of that has ever happened before,” he said. Hasn't the Storegga event been tied pretty tightly to clathrates & methane? Terry
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http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf A UN report on permafrost Terry
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Steve Could I ask the subject of you presentation? Terry
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Another report from Russia - frankly the reporter messed up the details, but the tenor of the article rings true. http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_09_17/Methane-emissions-in-Arctic-cause-climate-change-catastrophic-effect-expert-says/ Terry
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An interesting article that may help bring some up to speed on the methane situation. - things have changed in the last year. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/arctic-crisis_b_1859710.html Terry
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New study from University of Vancouver, and an understatement: "Rather large percentages of existing species become committed to extinction." http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2012/09/11/science-uvic-permafrost-carbon.html Terry
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In Canada the cuts have been more dramatic - of course our Minister of Science thinks the world is 6k yrs old.(He's also my local MP & I've spent too much time and effort helping those that run against him) The drop of in situ sampling was extremely bad, if they stop sampling altogether - disastrous. I'll probably have to adjust the tin foil hat, but this indicates to me that there's data that's expected to arrive that will scare the heck out of everyone. Will you be taking in S&S's presentations at the AGU? I'm sure the presentations themselves will be made available, but I'd like to have a feeling for the audience reaction. Terry
