HighStakes

Just now, Cobalt said:

The control (and the mean to an extent) look strikingly similar to Feb 2006, even to the extent of the max snowfall area near NYC. How was that setup similar to this? It's been one of the top analogs for a little bit too. 

Much warmer leading into that storm. Storm lasted around 18 hours. The 4-5 hour deform band made the storm a non-fail. It was crushing. 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

similar evolution but this has much more cold air in front...which would argue for a further south eventual outcome with the coastal.  90% of our snow was from the WAA in that 2003 event.  

Did quite well in Reisterstown with that storm. Round 1 was heavy and dumped 6 inches. I think parts of Howard County got 7-8. Then some drizzle during the lull. Atmosphere cooled back down quickly and by evening there was on and off light snow with occasional heavier burst during the lull. Picked up maybe another inch or so.  Round 2 started in earnest after midnight and lasted until mid-morning dumping another 5-6. I was just far enough north to get in decently in round 2. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like LWX is going with likely pops starting Sunday now.

Watches by tomorrow morning?

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Areas within the deformation axis would undoubtedly get heavy snow as the resolution factors in the globals will not pick up such intricate banding structures. Considering the strength and placement of the 850 and 700mb lows, there would be a general enhancement to the north and northwest of the central low positions. Plenty of 850-700mb frontogen within the CCB as well. Efficient for piling up over time, even under light to moderate snowfall. 

Without being too much of a weenie this sure looks like a storm with major potential. It's difficult for even the best models to pinpoint location and intensity of the CCB band. Whoever is lucky enough to jackpot is going to get crushed. 

For the northern crew looks like surface temp never goes above 28 until 18z Tuesday. Total QPF. around 1.25. Event last roughly 54 hours. Pretty unique.

1 minute ago, mappy said:

didn't high risk mention that GFS just doesn't have the resolution for CAD like EURO does? 

It really struggles with it until game time

Much colder than GFS

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

everybody is nervous

Yes, very

Just now, yoda said:

I am willing to bet that there will be some really good GEFS members on the 12z run for everyone

No doubt.

8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Damn...Nam has snow in Winchester by late Saturday night . Only 3 days out 

Today might be the 1st in several that I might get to see the 12 z suite live . Not as busy at work . 

My business is traditionally very slow this time of year. I've had plenty free time to track.

Huge snowstorm wraps up on Tuesday then Friday we hit 60. Shades of 96.

Surface temps look a bit too warm on this run. Would imply a very wet snow which is unusual for up this way during coastals.

Regardless of how it plays out it seems every major models insists on a 48 hour event.

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like?  We might have some fun times ahead. 

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I haven't peeked at it yet, but I certainly will now that you mention it. We've got our own fun wind bags incoming for this weekend and pretty much half of next week, so I've been mulling over the data there. Could have a 3 day High Wind Warning for Guadalupe Pass out here next week. Good times! lol

NAO remains firmly negative as does AO. Looks like we finally get a -EPO in 10 days or so. Tonight's GFS advertising some serious cold 2nd week of February.

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

During PD2, I was away in New Hampshire for the weekend. On the way home, we stopped in Massachusetts overnight and then headed back to Owings Mills. I was driving in the right lane of the beltway and realized the lane was about to end because it has not been plowed! Crazy to think how ill equipped they were for that storm. When we got home to our apartment complex it was like a bomb had gone off. Total chaos. What a storm that was.

It must have been freezing as heck up there before the storm with that 1040 high. If I remember correctly parts of New England were well below zero that weekend.

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

96 also cold but not as ...I remember 13-19 F range .

PDII may have dropped as low as 9 during storm before settling  between 11 and 13

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s possible you dry slotted before the mid level warm intrusion in 96. But sleet did make it as far NW as IAD.  The dryslot is caused by the same function as the mixing. The mid level warm intrusion also often times up with the dry slot because it signals the rapid WAA has ended (the cold has been displaced) and so you get light or no precip. Whether it’s sleet or just dry doesn’t make a difference to snow totals lol. 

Had a brief period where sleet mixed in mostly during dry slot in Reisterstown.

Endless light snow/snow showers.

Hours of light to moderate snow before it really gets going.

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

There has definitely been a seasonal trend of primary lows hanging on longer than we want before coastal transfer.  Doesn't mean it's going to happen this time though. I'd personally still be quite happy with 5-6", drizzle and dry slot, then 24hours of snowshowers for another 1-2".  But I guess YMMV.  

Sounds good to me. That would be a pretty solid storm. ULL can be a wild card after the thump. Could be some mini Jackpots.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

did anyone look at the 12z gfs past this storm. lol..very wintry and cold. What happened to the warm Feb?

Teleconnections look good going forward.

Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Remember we are still many days away, and this run needed a late capture to really get going. I’m as excited as anyone but it could still be a miss but not be a gfs coup. You guys are in a good spot though idc where it hits I’ll chase! Just temper expectations right now too far out

Thank you Dr. Phil.

Nice and cold leading in. Not one flake wasted.

If the elephant in the room causes this the trade off is quite acceptable.

Temps not budging yet.