Snowstorms

Its 37F here in Toronto which is 10 degrees above avg. Some snow piles left. Sun rarely comes out in the winter here lol. I agree, it is awful.

He has yet to experience a futility winter. Detroit's been extremely lucky compared to most of us. In 2011-12 Toronto got 17" and 20.6" in 2009-10. Two futility winters in a very short time frame. Once he gets to that level, all our complaints will make total sense.

Next weekend's storm is trending towards an East Coast special.

Mar 08 blizzard redux. Let's get it.

Toronto called the army in 1999 after ~47" fell in less than 2 weeks lol.

I'd assume its correlated with the MJO moving through phases 4-5-6? We'll see if that changes come mid-Feb, but for now we won't be seeing cold outbreaks anytime soon. The AO/NAO are + too.

^^Canuck is chilling in Aruba I believe.

2015-16 and 2016-17 were pretty abysmal outside of Dec 16 locally. It feels like our winters are getting shorter.

That winter was a moderate La Nina. Totally different atmospheric set-up despite the similar anomalies.

As per the Euro, the cold air doesn't last long and by the 22nd, we're above freezing again. This is in part due to the jet cutting overtop of the region and a lack of blocking in the Pacific. It almost resembles a -PNA in the west. And instead of a 50/50 Low off the coast of Newfoundland, there's a massive ridge at 192 hrs. There's nothing amazing about this pattern or set-up. Edit: By 216hrs the entire nation is flooded with warm pacific air while the cold air retreats to the Arctic.

Euro with another rainer followed by a pattern change that favours the East Coast. Can't get much worse than that. Practically mid Jan now. March is less than 2 months away.

The GFS is trying to build a split flow pattern ~Jan 20th. Terrible. This current pattern were in is probably the most ideal pattern for most of us to get snow, but due to a strong SE ridge, we keep getting rain.

The EURO has a three punch storm. The third is further south than the GFS and CMC. Edit: That strong HP near Hudson Bay plays a major role IMO on how far north the storm comes and where the gradient sets up with a cold NE wind.

Half of February 08 was spent in unfavourable phases (3-4-5-6) along with a +NAO/AO pattern. We can get lucky depending on where NPAC ridge sets up and how it impacts the gradient. A bit further east into the EPO domain could allow for a slightly suppressed SE ridge.

Massive sleet storm on the CMC... yeah no thanks.

I was bored so I began watching a radar loop lol. The winter of 2004-05 was a fairly interesting and active winter for most of us. Got around 65.0" locally. Back when phased storms were a thing lol.

12z Euro with two rain storms between now and next weekend. Zzzzz...

The January 7-8 threat has all but vanished on the models. Models show another rain maker/cutter around the 10th. As Alek said, if it ain't gonna snow let it torch.

Regardless of a pattern change, it sucks to lose December and the better part of January especially during the lowest sun angle too. It's hard to make up for that. Expectations for this winter were pretty high back in Fall. Part of that was due to low solar, descending QBO and weak El Nino. All of which would contribute towards blocking over the Arctic and Pacific. Although models show a pretty stout Aleutian ridge, there's still no sign of any pending snowstorms, even in the fantasy range. Let's not forget we lost December and half of January last year too. There have been comparisons being made between 2007-08 and the upcoming H5 pattern. Any insight on that?

This pattern has been very prevalent in the last few years. A lot of winters pre 1980 and even some 80's winters featured more consistent cold and snowy weather in DJFM. However, in recent times it feels like it's being crunched down into just a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Take for example, 2017-18. It was generally cold and snowy from December till early January and again in the first 2 weeks in February. Outside of those couple weeks it was mild to exceptionally warm for most of us. Spring/Summer 2019 featured strong blocking over the Arctic which nearly decimated the sea ice especially around the Sea of Chukotsk. However, as been the theme in recent years, Arctic blocking seems to be nonexistent in the winter. Could that be related to the heat being released from the Arctic during the fall after the sea ice loss in the summer?

Pretty big changes on the 18z NAM vs 12z NAM. Story of this winter. Happy New Years everyone! Let's hope this decade is a better one.

Sucks to see another cutter on the 3rd.

Sounds like a La Nina pattern.

The 240 hr snow map on the 12z Euro is a joke. Three storms and all of them are rain lol.