Snowstorms

Subsurface anomalies are still relatively cold across much of the ENSO regions with the exception of Nino 4 as you mentioned. However, one thing to keep in mind is that 2007 had similar subsurface anomalies across far western ENSO regions to date. We should see continued trade winds blowing over the ENSO regions with another strong easterly burst coming next week. We'll see what impact that has, but regardless the SOI is now in Nina territory. The MJO is expected to remain weak/inactive as per models so this La Nina will continue to strengthen over the next few weeks. As it stands right now, I suspect this Nina will peak in the winter as did 2007.

Although 44-45 and 45-46 had exceptionally warm Marches, DJF were cold. Jan 1945 in particular. As you can see, the 1900's, 1910's, 1920's and again the 1960's, 1970's and 1980's were exceptionally cooler than any of the last three decades in all three cities you provided. Some of the warm winters we saw in these last few decades weren't just "warm" but were exceptionally above normal. Winters like 1997-98, 1998-99, 2001-02 , 2011-12 and 2015-16 were extremely warm winters nationwide. So there's been a definite warming trend in the last 100+ years.

It got down to -16F at YYZ and nearly -20F in surrounding suburbs in Toronto for one night. Believe it or not, it was the coldest low temp in Toronto since Jan 94. On a side note, Jan 94 was just ridiculous. YYZ got down to -24F and surrounding suburbs got down to -30F. Feb 2015 came close but only got down to -14F. Dec 2017 and Jan 2018 were impressive as well. Not sure how cold Detroit got during that cold snap.

To add to what you said, a severe cold outbreak or heatwave that lasts about a week shouldn't be a measure of climate change. It's more about annual trends as per your graph. If you go back to the 40's, 50's, 60's, etc. you'd note some winter's didn't have any real impressive cold outbreaks, but they were consistently cold for DJFM. What I've noticed in recent years is that we get one impressively cold month while the others are near or above average. From a temperature vantage point Detroit, Toronto, Upstate NY and parts of NNE have a similar climatology. Winters like 1940-41, 1942-43, 1944-45, 1945-46 and 1947-48 all featured consistent cold in DJF and that's just one decade. Really can't say the same for the 2000s or 2010's. Like for example: 2001-02, 03-04 (aside from Jan), 2005-06, 2006-07 (aside from Feb), 2007-08, 2011-12, 2012-13, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2019-20 were all incredibly warm winters. From a trend perspective they outweigh any warm winter in the past. So there's been a definite warming trend in winter. Snowfall is just a byproduct of temperatures in my opinion. Even if it's 33 or 34F it can still snow. Just because the snowfall trend has been going up, locally, it doesn't mean the overall trend is "good" or "cool".

Although we haven't yet reached our minimum sea ice extent/area for the year, winter has started again in northern Canada. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html Resolute, Nunavut is losing 15 minutes of sunlight per day.

We had over 100 days of snow-cover in 2013-14. That ice storm solidified the snow base and we just kept adding onto it. Despite that mid Jan thaw we had, our snowpack still survived. I won't forget watching the 2014 winter classic on TV, in Ann Arbour if I'm not mistaken, and seeing all that heavy snow coming down for hours. We missed out on that storm unfortunately. 2010-11 was another great La Niña winter. Highly unlikely this year's La Niña will peak anywhere near that year. Our area, specifically Detroit - Toronto, can do well regardless of ENSO state. 2008-09 was just great especially coming off the heels of 07-08. I got over 30" that December alone. I was in high school during that Dec 2008 storm and I remember getting a half day because of all the snow which kick started the winter holidays haha. Jan 2009 had some impressive cold across much of the east. One of the craziest December cold snaps in recent times was in Dec 2017 around Christmas time. Although we haven't seen a wall to wall cold winter since 2014-15, we have seen some impressive cold shots as ORH noted in his previous post, i.e. Jan 2019.

Experienced a once in a lifetime ice storm in Dec 2013. Was also the coldest winter on record in more than 25 years in my neck of the woods. Apparently parts of Manitoba were colder than the surface of Mars that winter. Feb 2015 however was the coldest month ever recorded in Toronto. I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2013-14 or 2008-09. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare

This will likely continue strengthening through next week. That warm pool has an eerie resemblance to 2013-14 but at the same time it also concedes with a strengthening -PDO. Early guess would be 2013-14/2008-09 and 2017-18 blend using the most recent Nina years. La Nina's can transition into winter pretty quickly. Just ask Denver next week.

Most recent MEI value (JJ) was -1.0 which is borderline moderate La Nina. The new value for JA may come in higher as we've seen more progressive cooling across all ENSO regions through-out this month. Further cooling should continue over the next few weeks as a strong trade wind burst is expected next week esp over western ENSO regions. The new MEI v2 uses 5 variables compared to the old MEI which used 6. I prefer MEI as it takes into consideration all ENSO regions compared to ONI.

Nina winters with some NAO blocking are epic, i.e. 55-56, 64-65, 70-71, 95-96, 08-09 and 10-11.

They've made masks mandatory in all indoor settings including apartments and condominiums (public areas). Gyms and fitness centers finally opened up after being closed for nearly 5 months. I believe they're contemplating on keeping that US-Canada border closed until December.

The ONI is more widely used to categorize ENSO events, but I prefer MEI as it takes into consideration more variables. The 2010-11 La Nina was the last strong Nina event. The coldest anomalies were centered around Region 1+2 and 3 as opposed to Region 4, atleast in the beginning. So there is a chance we could see a pretty healthy La Nina event if the upwelling continues. Haven't dug deep into this year's ENSO event but will be doing so over the next few weeks. Your posts are always informative, great work!

When I went grocery shopping last week, I saw numerous bottles of hand sanitizer. It was sold out everywhere prior to that. Limit was 2, so I grabbed 2 lol. Now we wait for Lysol and/or Clorox wipes to be restocked.

Did you see that video of him putting a mask on?

3-15K alone is devastating but 100K is just catastrophic. We've seen over 400 cases a day now for the last few days. Apparently were not testing as vigorously as other countries are so that number could be a lot higher. Correct me if I'm wrong tho. I don't know if you've heard but some family in Brampton got fined 100K for throwing a "party" despite Ford prohibiting gatherings of more than 5 people. My WFH got extended till May 1 now and I suspect it may get extended again as we approach the end of the month. April will be a rough month but if these social distancing measures are increasingly forced, then May can end up a lot better.

Ohh, makes sense! Thanks for that. Do you think Ford needs to issue a mandatory stay at home order?

A friend of mine used to work at an Asian grocery store about a decade ago. He used to tell me how much they all smoked. I think it was a pack a day or something close to that.

They've got the army ready to deploy in case the Federal Government issues a mandatory order for people to stay at home. There was a lot of people walking around ignoring social-distancing yesterday lol. Tbh, I think that order is necessary because some people are still taking this very lightly. I'm working from home till the end of April now.

Now I'm not going to single out an entire race, but the article below is pretty messed up. This is a nation wide problem. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-markets-selling-bats.html I believe this is more than a political issue. It's a societal issue which stems from old traditions that they've continued to carry on till this very day.They still haven't learned their lesson yet despite SARS and Corona. Strangely enough they're now blaming USA for deliberately bringing the virus to China which according to them, started in Italy. It really can't get much worse than that lol.

I go once a week to get groceries but like you said, it's risky. That online grocery shopping has some risks too. What if the delivery person has symptoms or if the products have the virus on them. Now thats obviously stretching it but I've become cautious with everything now lol. 211 new cases in ON today. No signs of it slowing down so far.

More unfortunate news coming out of Europe today. 889 new deaths in Italy, 674 in Spain, 260 in UK and 319 in France. One can only hope this starts slowing down soon but it doesn't seem like it. I don't think summer will have any profound impacts on this virus.

They've closed all parks, facilities, trails and beaches in Toronto too. On-top of that, anyone travelling back to the country will need to self-isolate themselves for 14 days or face being charged or arrested. I don't know how they're going to enforce this but this should've been done a week ago. I heard Trump wants to put troops along the Canadian-US Border. Is that true?

Really? The interest should be waived too. Its not like people are sitting at home because they want to. Isn’t EI only 55% of your avg insurable weekly earnings?

Schools depend on the province. For now schools in Ontario are closed until April 6th. Universities and colleges have moved the remainder of the semester online. I'm not sure about final exams though. I haven't heard anything about $950 every two weeks lol. Canadians are eligible to apply for EI (employment insurance) if they've been laid off or if they're in self isolation. The waiting period has been waived. The mortgage part is true but there's some controversy going on as the banks are being difficult about it. Canadians with federal student loans are getting a break on loan and interest payments for the next 6 months. They've also announced property tax deferrals but that's based upon on each municipality’s discretion. They've also temporarily suspended rental evictions to those who can't pay their monthly rent.

Quebec has closed all shopping malls, schools and restaurant dining rooms until May 1. Total cases in Quebec have climbed up to 219 as of today.