Snowstorms

Deserves a medal for being so consistent and accurate.

Now unless something changes, this storm appears to be our "best" chance for snow through atleast Christmas. The ridge axis following this storm isn't ideal for a winter storm, especially for those in Chicago and further ENE.

I agree. Per 500mb vort maps it does appear to dig a bit deeper than previous runs. 00Z CMC speeds up the northern stream, but you can see the s/w isn't nearly as strong either.

00Z CMC just holds back the entire s/w and consequently no storm. Almost looks like the 00Z Icon.

00Z GFS looking similar to 12z CMC.

The Euro drops the PV right over Lake Superior . On a side note, pre decent ridging near Western Greenland, indicative of a west based -NAO. This helps push the ridge towards the Plains/Prairies. It's not the best look for a winter storm for our region though.

Can't disagree with this. One thing I want to mention is the UKIE. I been evaluating its performance and its picked up on some key things throughout season. The storm this weekend for example, the UKIE was the first to pick up the storm riding up the Apps whereas the other model suite had it up the coast. Now both the CMC and Euro have a storm going up the Apps whereas the GFS still remains more towards the coast. GFS has been atrocious in some cases, but it does have some support from UKIE and CMC right now.

I'm sorry I actually just based it on what I saw here; http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest I don't have access to the premium models. Perhaps somebody else does ?

00Z Ukie looks pretty sweet.

Or like the 00z Icon!

That intense Pacific jet stream is gonna play alot of "games" on the models. So I wouldn't be sold out on anything, yet. There's a good chance this storm could end up being a total dud. Likewise, it could also be noteworthy.

I was near Amherst and Williamsville a few days ago. I was surprised there wasn't any snow on the ground. Is this the first major LES for Buffalo?

I was gonna go near Niagara today for a client meeting. But then I decided to reschedule seeing that haha!

The 0z Euro looked pretty interesting. A weak ridge across the PNW (neutral PNA), nice little block across the north with the PV nearby in Hudson Bay, and a weak ridge out ahead in the SE. It wouldn't be a large storm IMO, but a potent one for some if it were to occur.

If the 16-17th storm were to occur, it would most likely be an overrunning event. The departing low this weekend would likely create a "block" around Newfoundland and without a decent ridge out ahead of the storm, there's little room for amplification.

Not surprising since we've seen a lot of "snowless" Decembers over the past 20 years. I'm sure years like 2018, 2015, 2011 and 2006 come to mind. However, when you consider some of the more snowier Decembers, a majority of them were La Nina's (2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2016 and 2017).

I agree, no consistency. Euro has a coaster. I feel like models tend to underplay CAD in these type of events, especially this far out. We got a pretty decent pool of cold air near Hudson Bay and a departing PV. Let's see.

Look's like a whole lot of rain.

Measured 2.5" this morning with the clipper snow. Little icing on the cake.

Looking good for 2-4" across much of the GTA into Hamilton tomorrow as a clipper passes on thru. Going to be a messy morning commute. Potential is there for lake enhancement with 4-5" in some localized areas.

Couple models showing 1-3" across the GTA on Friday with a weak clipper passing by. Nothing too serious, just some light snow lol.

I find it interesting how YYZ's top snowiest Novembers aren't the same or atleast similar to Detroit's. YYZ's top 3 snowiest Novembers are 1940 (24.0"), 1950 (19.7") and 2003 (10.7").

I agree, great start to the season! YYZ now up to 31.6cm (12.4"). I am doing great, hope you are as well! Hoping for another exciting season.

November 2019 stats at YYZ. Avgs in bracket. High: 40.1F (45.5F) Low: 26.9F (31.4F) Mean: 33.6F (38.3F) - Tied for 3rd coldest on record Total snow: 7.5" (2.9")

About ~3.2" fell last night at YYZ (still snowing). This doesn't include the 1.2" that fell yesterday. Not a total bust, but the PL yesterday certainly put a dent on what could have been a 4-6" snowstorm (prior to last night's snowfall).