Snowstorms

We've nickel and dimed our way up to average the last few winters. No exceptional storms outside of some over performing clippers or overrunning events. We haven't had a phased storm in years. ChiTown's frustration is understandable.

The initial low won't make it to the coast till tom night and the main event till Thurs night. So we likely won't have an accurate picture until Wed 00z and Thurs 12Z, respectively. Can't write it off just yet.

There's also a strong HP that undercuts the departing LP in Northern Ontario. If the southern stream slows down a bit, we can gain some help from it.

It's been a couple years since we've had a proper storm. Therefore, trends would favour a weaker storm lol.

Pretty nice subtropical jet stream influence. If this storm pans out, it'll be a decent storm for some. Been a while since we've seen a storm like this.

"And keep running". - Hoosier.

The EURO has a three punch storm. The third is further south than the GFS and CMC. Edit: That strong HP near Hudson Bay plays a major role IMO on how far north the storm comes and where the gradient sets up with a cold NE wind.

Half of February 08 was spent in unfavourable phases (3-4-5-6) along with a +NAO/AO pattern. We can get lucky depending on where NPAC ridge sets up and how it impacts the gradient. A bit further east into the EPO domain could allow for a slightly suppressed SE ridge.

Massive sleet storm on the CMC... yeah no thanks.

Light snow has begun. Looks like 2.0" is a safe bet for tonight. Local amounts may approach 3.0" in Toronto.

LOL. Feb 1-3 GHD part 3. Book it.

I was bored so I began watching a radar loop lol. The winter of 2004-05 was a fairly interesting and active winter for most of us. Got around 65.0" locally. Back when phased storms were a thing lol.

12z Euro with two rain storms between now and next weekend. Zzzzz...

Man every winter on that, expect 2008 locally, was bad lol. Terrible pattern for all of us.

Got an inch this morning. It all melted now.

The January 7-8 threat has all but vanished on the models. Models show another rain maker/cutter around the 10th. As Alek said, if it ain't gonna snow let it torch.

Regardless of a pattern change, it sucks to lose December and the better part of January especially during the lowest sun angle too. It's hard to make up for that. Expectations for this winter were pretty high back in Fall. Part of that was due to low solar, descending QBO and weak El Nino. All of which would contribute towards blocking over the Arctic and Pacific. Although models show a pretty stout Aleutian ridge, there's still no sign of any pending snowstorms, even in the fantasy range. Let's not forget we lost December and half of January last year too. There have been comparisons being made between 2007-08 and the upcoming H5 pattern. Any insight on that?

This pattern has been very prevalent in the last few years. A lot of winters pre 1980 and even some 80's winters featured more consistent cold and snowy weather in DJFM. However, in recent times it feels like it's being crunched down into just a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Take for example, 2017-18. It was generally cold and snowy from December till early January and again in the first 2 weeks in February. Outside of those couple weeks it was mild to exceptionally warm for most of us. Spring/Summer 2019 featured strong blocking over the Arctic which nearly decimated the sea ice especially around the Sea of Chukotsk. However, as been the theme in recent years, Arctic blocking seems to be nonexistent in the winter. Could that be related to the heat being released from the Arctic during the fall after the sea ice loss in the summer?

Hopefully its a La Niña.

It's been a really long time since we've had a fully phased snowstorm in the region.

Pretty big changes on the 18z NAM vs 12z NAM. Story of this winter. Happy New Years everyone! Let's hope this decade is a better one.

December stats at YYZ: High: 36.8F, Highest temp: 52F Low: 24.2F, Lowest temp: 1.9F Mean: 30.5F (2.4F above avg) Snowfall: 11.5" (exactly average) Rain: 1.1" (near average) Days below freezing: 8 (normal is 12)

Is this the one around December 11th? Do you have a radar image of it? This storm apparently dropped 12-20" across my neck of the woods too.

Looks like 2016-17 which had endless rain and warmth through much of January.

These wraparound snows don't always workout, so it'll probably be an inch with heavy flurries most likely. Interestingly enough, depending how much snow and sleet Ottawa receives over the next few days, we could either surpass them or be closely tied with them for December. Don't think thats ever happened before.