Snowstorms

Literally nothing on the models after this weekends storm. Maybe some light snow around Jan 23, but even that has some mixing lol.

I was shocked to see that this morning. Vegas is only 3pts away from being division lead. I don't understand this, but I'm starting to think it may have been intentional. Only reason I say that is because DeBoer was hired immediately.

Yeah same. Not looking like much this way either. Heaviest snow falls well north of us. Maybe an inch if were lucky. There wasn't much lift or room for the storm to grow. Jet stream is pretty progressive.

2011-12, 2012-13 and 2015-16 were worse up until now.

Well right now it's somewhere in the Atlantic. Happened a few days ago. 75% of the sub-forum was a washout. Don't worry you didn't miss anything.

It's -57F in Mayo, Yukon. If anyone misses the cold that is. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/yt-10_metric_e.html

12z CMC much further south than the 12z GFS. Primarily snow for Chicago crew.

It's crazy how were sad to see a 1" snowpack melt away. The story of this winter.

12Z GFS is a bit too warm for my liking. We need the Low to cut south of Lake Michigan, otherwise there's to much WAA. Just another storm where we're riding the thin line.

Apparently the Euro weeklies look like Feb 2015. Feb 2015 was an incredibly boring month outside of the GHD storm. Just endless brutal cold.

If we got 0.5" every single day from Dec 1 to Feb 28, we'd hit avg.

Just move to Quebec City. They avg. 120" a year of pure synoptic snow. Just brush up on that French though lol.

Yeah I agree. Hoping it trends just a bit further south. Could be a decent 5-10cm if it does.

I mean qpf can always be over or under modeled. We won't know until within 24 hrs. But if you look at the 250mb wind map you'd see some subtropical influence and the PWAT maps indicate a good amount of moisture. It's a decent Colorado Low.

Mar 2012 and Feb 2015 were both rare months. We've had warm winters in the past, especially the 1930s and some 1800s. However, as you mentioned, the warm-ups have become too frequent and long-lasting. If we break it down a bit, it becomes quite clear. 05-06: quite warm after Dec, 06-07: a no show until mid Jan, 07-08: overall was warm, 11-12: warm, 12-13: warm until late Jan, 15-16: warm, 16-17: warm after Dec, 18-19: warm until mid Jan, 19-20: warm since Dec..? Hard to say if it's related to CC, but the trend is undeniable. We've shattered snowfall and cold records in between, but warmth still prevails.

The HP placement is different than the last storm. We had to much WAA thanks to the strong SE ridge. It's a bit more suppressed with this event.

On a positive note, the models have been trending colder since yesterday. A lot of that has to do with the strong HP in Quebec. This storm won't make it onshore until Thursday morning so I'd expect some fluctuations till then.

Watching this storm pretty carefully for the GTA. Here's the latest model breakdown. Euro: 3" GFS: 1-2" NAM: <1" CMC: 2-4" A majority of the snow falls Wed night so hopefully that can play a role in keeping the surface cold enough for frozen precip. If the low tracks just south of Lake Ontario, there is the possibility for some lake enhancement for Toronto proper.

Similar trend up this way in Toronto since 2000. Hoping we turn it around this decade. February has been our strongest month in recent times, hoping that trend continues atleast lol.

The pattern following this storm is pretty mundane. Latest GFS has a split flow look. Not the most ideal pattern for any storm for our region other than perhaps weak clippers.

Nearly 3" of rain at YYZ with this storm lol.

I know we've all broken some nice cold and snowfall records in the last decade or two. But my post was referring to the prolonged and frequent warmups we've been seeing practically every winter. 7 out of the last 10 Decembers were warmer than normal. Both February 2017 and 2018 featured record breaking warmth. 2010-11 and 2013-14 were the only two winters in the last decade to feature consistent cold through DJF. Perhaps it could just be a temporary thing or is a result of CC. Either way its hard to deny the facts. The 90's were indifferent too.

I feel like it's been a common theme since 2010, maybe even before that. We have prolonged mild spells through the heart of winter and only a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Let's be honest, since 2010, we've only had 3 maybe 4 appreciable winters. And besides 2010-11 and 2013-14, the other 1-2 good winters featured a decent warm spell. Perhaps this is a result of climate change or maybe it's just a temporary blip. Regardless, we won't know until we see how the next couple of winters perform.

Might be one of the worst winters for lake effect and synoptic snow.

Temp has dropped 12F in the last 20 minutes at YYZ.