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Snowstorms

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Everything posted by Snowstorms

  1. Snowstorms
    Yeah were in line to get 8-12" tomorrow too.
  2. Snowstorms
    Nice to see a WNY and ON special for once.
  3. Snowstorms
    EC issues a snowfall warning for Toronto. 6-10” by Thursday morning.
  4. Snowstorms
    Latest HRRR has ~8” in Toronto by 6z Thurs and still snowing. Heaviest amounts centred from Hamilton to Oshawa including Toronto. Feeling more confident with 6-10”.
  5. Snowstorms
    Sounds like a Dec ‘16 repeat band. RGEM is a bit more east with the heavier amounts. Closer to 8”.
  6. Snowstorms
    That Jan 10-12 storm was a quality rainer. 3” in mid Jan. Can’t get much better than that.
  7. Snowstorms
    6z models trended weaker and bit further SE compared to 00Z. 4-6" seems like a good call for now barring any major changes at 12z.
  8. Snowstorms
    By tomorrow this will be over NYC.
  9. Snowstorms
    00Z RGEM even further SE. Has the sweet band just south of Toronto now.
  10. Snowstorms
    We had a rare band off Georgian Bay rip through the city a few years ago. Dropped 3" in an hour. The city was at a standstill haha. Our geographic location has its benefits but a lot of drawbacks too lol. Either way, it's nice to have welcoming neighbours across the border.
  11. Snowstorms
    The NAM 3km literally parks the Low right over us. I'd be worried about being dry slotted near the end but nothing like the GHD event. I agree. A slight shift NW is still doable but by a fraction at best. NAM 3km has the freezing line right along the Lake. UKIE has handled this event the best.
  12. Snowstorms
    It's rare to see an East wind off the Lake. Only really happens when a storm passes just south of us and upper air dynamics are favorable for LES bands to set-up. You guys are in the sweet spot off Lake Ontario. I go to Buffalo occasionally in the Winter so it's refreshing to see some nice drifts after a good lake effect snow event. Actually we got 10.4" in one day last winter thanks to an over-performing clipper. Two day total was 13". But you can see how bad we've had it recently lol.
  13. Snowstorms
    00Z NAM with ~10" for Toronto. Let me enjoy this before we get robbed like Chicago.
  14. Snowstorms
    Not happening. Cut that in half and it still seems unbelievable. I'm going with 4-6" of wet snow for now. We're riding the thin line at the surface coupled with warm ground temperatures.
  15. Snowstorms
    Sucks to see Chicago get shafted again and again. Just brutal. Models have been awful this year even within 36-48 hrs.
  16. Snowstorms
    I'd say closer to 4" near the Lake and more north of 401. We're riding the thin line again but a majority of the precip comes in late Wed and that gives us ample time to cool the thermals. Going with 4-6" for now.
  17. Snowstorms
    I've seen this before. There's always that one NAM run that makes you piss your pants until the next one knocks you back down to reality.
  18. Snowstorms
    Jan 10-12 was a quality thread rainer.
  19. Snowstorms
    NAM has a donut hole over Toronto. But a decent 3-5" away from the Lake. The storm evolved differently this run than previous runs. Regardless, ratios will likely be 8:1.
  20. Snowstorms
    The last time it was 57 here was back in October lol. I'll take that right now.
  21. Snowstorms
    I agree. After today's 48F, I'm content with that. Ready for Spring. Little icing on the cake to go above avg in an incredibly warm winter. Not something you would normally expect.
  22. Snowstorms
    Ukie is a good hit for us.
  23. Snowstorms
    Latest CMC is much cooler but weaker for the GTA. Has ~4-5" across the area. The difference is quite noticeable at 500mb.
  24. Snowstorms
    Would be crazy if the GFS ends up verifying. Still within the realm of possibilities.
  25. Snowstorms
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