Snowstorms

I wish there was more detailed records of some of these historic winters in the 1800s. Nothing has ever come close to how snowy some of them were. And I'm not sure why? Not sure if theres stations in Michigan, Ohio, or Illinois that go back that far? Even from a temperature standpoint and not just in winter, but yearly. Not sure if its a result of UHI, but a lot of the summers in the 1800s in Toronto were cold by today's standards only averaging around 68 (+/- 1.5). However, some of the numbers at YYZ are questionable for some winters especially 07-08. Every station in Toronto recorded 90-100" that winter with YYZ only at 76". Consequently YYZ fell short by 5" from breaking the all-time record (1938-39). Similar story with 08-09. YYZ recorded 60" but most stations were 70+".

Still liking 6-8" for Toronto away from the lake, locally higher. Thinking 4" near the lake and Hamilton with mixing around midnight. Some virga on the radar right now due to dry air, but the column will quickly begin saturating by late afternoon.

Complex set up tomorrow for Toronto. Areas closer to the lake may switch over to freezing rain and rain but areas north of the 401 could stay predominately as snow. Temperatures are marginal, but sometimes models can underestimate the sneaky dynamic cooling plus the nearly frozen Lake Erie which may help to keep temperatures at bay. Certainly a nowcast event. Early call is 6-8" north of the 401 and closer to 4" near the lake.

It did. Most models had us around 2-4", but HRRR was a bit aggressive with 4-6". Most places saw between 5-8". Got a solid 9" on the ground now. YYZ is around 26.5" for the season.

Final storm total of 6" at YYZ. Western areas of the GTA saw close to 8".

Kuchera maps have us at almost 60+ in the next 11 days. Insane run.

Just measured 5". Light snow should continue for the next few hours so will likely finish around 6".

Whats your seasonal average? YYZ is at 20.6" as of yesterday. This storm should push YYZ to 25-26".

That's awesome. Last year was a stinker for Hamilton. Will this storm help put you ahead of any futility records?

Snowfall warning issued for Toronto. 6-8" possible by tomorrow morning. Intense band pushing into the region now.

Visibility down to 0.5 miles with some heavier snow right now. About 2" down so far. Intense band going to make its way into the GTA over the next hour.

Models phasing the northern energy and southern energy right over Ontario so feeling confident we can score 4-6" tonight. This should allow for favorable snow growth and decent snow ratios. Potential is also there for a shallow lake effect snow band to develop off Lake Ontario which will gradually shift SE towards Hamilton/Niagara as the storm pushes east. Some localized areas could see 6-8". Main FGEN band pushes through late this evening and could offer the best rates and thump of snow for the GTA.

Potent squall ripping through the area along a cold front right now. Might be a quick hitting 1" lol. Visibility down to 0.2 miles.

Weekend storm went from being a potential 6-8"+ storm the other day to a quick hitting 2" now. Another failed storm in this winter. On top of a failed "extremely cold" January. I've appreciated the constant 0.5-1" events we got this winter and the occasional 2" clipper. But at some point it becomes a bit tiring. Pretty close to just hoping for a Morch at this point if things don't turn around, but that almost feels like wishful thinking with the way things have transpired.

Same got about 0.8-1" today. Made the roads slick. Got about 3" on the ground.

@mississaugasnowYour wishes may have come true. Heard Hamilton got 4-6" yesterday. Not a flake up here though.

YYZ finished with 9.9", about 1.6-2" below average. Temperature wise we had a mean temp of 22.2 which is in the realm of average for the month. Our coldest January since 2022 which finished at 16.7. Cold wise January underperformed than what the expectations were. Our coldest low was -1.3 which is nothing to write home about.

Man the 1960s and 1970s were some of our best winters. Consistent cold and endless snow. From 1960-1979, only 2 winters were below average, the rest were average or above average with 7 seasons above 60". Only one winter was above average temperature wise with 5 record breaking cold winters (1962-63, 1969-70, 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79). Stark contrast from the mid 80's - present.

Toronto records go back to 1840 and our futility winter is 2011-12 with only 16". What made 2011-12 even more horrible for us was that 2009-10 was the 3rd least snowiest winter on record and 2006-07 the 4th lowest. I'll give 2009-10 a pass because it was bad timing and strong blocking that killed any storm chances for us, but 06-07 and 11-12 were just horrible. 2015-16 is the 6th least snowiest and 2023-24 7th least snowiest since 1840. So I can feel @mississaugasnow frustration. Of the top 10 least snowiest, 5 have occurred in the last 18 years. YYZ botched the numbers for 2 storms in 07-08, but unofficially it will go down as the snowiest winter at YYZ. 2021-22 was the 8th snowiest on record at YYZ.

Lake effect snow is the reason why YYZ is at 19" for the season. Almost half of it is lake effect lol. The lack of storms this winter is truly appalling. But even more so has been the lack of extreme cold. YYZ has had a hard time cracking -10C for lows. I'm not sure if its because of the constant cloud cover and warm lakes or just strong UHI or the constant SW winds this winter. This month will finish right at average despite no warm ups and the warmest temp being only 4.1C (39F).

I'm at 23.5" for the season. YYZ is at 19", about 20 minutes south of me. Running 8" below normal right now. But managed to get ahead of our futility season which was 2011-12 with only 16.9".

Measured 3.2" with the clipper that went through the area early this evening. Temperatures hovered around 21 so we had some good ratios. Light snow should continue through the night.

Intense squall line ripping through the area right now along an arctic cold front. Blizzard like conditions. Even though it'll only last an hour, its nice to see in this boring winter.

What is NYC's coldest wind direction? Although we will likely finish below average this month, this cold hasn't been anything extreme. Its been more seasonable cold for us. Our average low is 13 right now and we've only dipped below 13, 8 times so far. This has been because of two things. The consistent cloud cover thanks to the warm lakes and the wind direction. It's been primarily out of the SW or WSW. Our coldest wind is from the NW or due N. I can give you a great example and perhaps you guys experienced this too. During the mid Feb 2016 cold snap, Toronto dropped to -16, which was our coldest low since Jan 1994. All because the wind was from due North that night.

I'll take a true La Nina pattern over this current crap. Although it does increase the risk of cutters which can mean rain for almost all of us, including the great lakes region, it can also mean a stormy/snowy pattern for the Great lakes, NE, and NYC if there's a good balance between cold and warm. Similar to Dec-Jan 2008-09.