Snowstorms

On and off snow flurries here today as well. Some decent lake effect snow bands off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron currently. Can't wait for that warm-up next week.

Same here. Got down to 22.2F last night at YYZ. Our coldest October low since 1976.

I was born in 1994 so 1991-92 is before my time. That's a long stretch and certainly a depressing way to ring in the new year. The February 2008 stretch is by far one of the longest I vividly remember. See below. 15 straight days of cloud and precipitation. The only time we saw some clear skies in this stretch was late in the evening or at night. If the 16th wasn't sunny it would've lasted 19 days lol. On the plus side most of it was snow during that stretch and over 25" of it. https://bit.ly/3mI05qH

In the winter we can go a week without the Sun easily. Then it'll come out for a day and not come out again for another week. The longest I can remember was in Jan 2017 and Feb 2008 where we went 2 weeks without the Sun. Heck even in the last 2 weeks, we've only had 3 or 4 sunny days. If you ever plan to come up this way, don't come in the winter lol.

Our Winter Solstice is (750-442). Total daylight on our shortest day is 8 hours and 55 minutes. Now if you consider our possible sunshine percentage, the Sun only comes out 28%, 30% and 37% in DJF, respectively. Worst climo. If March was the last time change, then in the winter the Sun would rise close to 9am but ultimately set at 5:40pm. Which is good especially for all those Vitamin D deficient people haha. Time change is purely psychological and hence imo, it's useless because it serves no other purpose.

Pretty decent warm-up coming after Nov 3rd for most of the sub-forum which should last till mid-November. Impressive -PNA and +AO means much of the PNW will be below normal and the east above. EPS and GEFS both have a ridge just east of the Aleutians and it seems to stay put through mid-month. Looks like a typical Nina pattern. To put things into perspective, previous La Nina's like 2007, 2008 and 2010 all featured a warm-up in November.

Time is nothing but a subconscious construct of the reality around us. And that reality is based on things out of our control, i.e. Earth's orbit around the Sun or our axial tilt. We're giving ourselves a false impression of real time by adding or subtracting an hour twice a year. That hour won't change the weather you live through or impact the seasons we experience. Days will get shorter or longer whether you like it or not. We created this illusion of time to give ourselves additional "daylight" where it counts but the Earth's rotation and orbital cycle is as is. Hence, why it’s useless to continue to allude to this illusion.

I would be too. DST is useless. Whether the clock moves ahead one hour or back one hour, you can't change the orbital cycle of the Earth. The days will get longer or shorter regardless of that one-hour change.

If you live in the Great Lakes area, the Sun barely comes out in the Fall and Winter lol. Whole lotta vitamin D deficient people in this region.

YYZ has yet to break the freezing mark this month thanks to persistent cloud cover. Since last week we've had only 2 sunny days, one being today lol. The caveats of living in the Great Lakes region. As of yesterday, YYZ is running 0.8C above avg. These next 4 days should bring us to within normal to close out the month. I'm not sure if Michigan or New York are planning on getting rid of daylight savings. Here in Ontario, once it's been approved by the court, we will get rid of it but only if the surrounding states and Quebec follow through. Time change is useless.

I feel you. It's been a shit month lol. The Sun finally started poking through after some thick fog this morning. I doubt it'll last as the line of thunderstorms is currently trekking its way towards Lake Huron now. And what follows is typical late Fall weather. There will be a warm-up in November (more so the first half), which may bring us close to 20C if not the upper teens as the pattern reshuffles.

There were a few torches that winter but nothing extraordinary. We only got above freezing 4 days in Jan 2011 and stayed below freezing from Dec 13-Dec 29. It wasn't 2013-14 type cold but it was below normal. Would I take a repeat? Sure, but only JFM. December was a massive disappointment for us. Not sure if it was the same for DTW. But the biggest disappointment for us was that Groundhog Day blizzard. Every single model had us receiving 15-20"+ the night before the storm, only to end up with less than 6" due to a massive dry slot and unique ice crystals. To this day I still consider that as our biggest disappointment in the last 15 years lol.

1970-71 was Canada's coldest winter ever. The entire country was below normal. Monthly departures here in Toronto were about the same as ORH. We got 30" in Dec 1970. Wouldn't the massive warm pool in the Central Pacific influence or increase the chances for a more poleward Aleutian ridge?

07-08 is arguably one of the best winters in the last 30+ years. Apart from snow cover retention and lack of arctic air that 2013-14 featured, it was constantly stormy. I'd be shocked if you’re in the Great Lakes region and don't want a repeat of that winter unless you got rain with every storm. Even parts of the Ohio Valley did well that winter.

It's been a long year. Everyone, including myself, are tired of Covid. It's been negatively impacting everyone's mental health. We're limited to what we can do due to various restrictions and at the same time, too afraid to do the things that we are allowed to do with the fear we may encounter someone who has the virus.

I agree. I'll take last year over 2011-12 any day. 2011-12 was the least snowiest winter on record for us. 2009-10 is third believe it or not lol.

Wow. Meanwhile were +3.7 for the month. If the Euro pans out, this month may not end up all that cold as we initially assumed a week ago. The Euro solution does have some merit, in my opinion, because the Atlantic is running well above normal and that only strengthens the ridge off the coast and keeps the cold air towards the Plains. But with that impressive NAO block and Pacific block, it's debatable. I think Buffalo will end up slightly below normal for the month.

With the increasing probability we may see our first snowflakes and even accumulating snowfall over the next 2 weeks, I looked back at all the Octobers that recorded more than an inch at YYZ. Records at YYZ only go back to 1937. 1962: 2.9" - Neutral 1969: 4.8" - El Nino 1976: 1.6" - El Nino 1981: 2.4" - Neutral 1997: 1.1" - El Nino 2018: 1.0" - El Nino YYZ has recorded measurable snow in 17 Octobers since 1937. Only 2 were La Nina's (1964, 2010) and 8 were El Nino's. So the upcoming pattern is in some ways highly unusual solely from an ENSO perspective, atleast locally.

It was average here snow wise. Temp wise was warm. That's great. Keep up with your vitamins everyday, maybe exercise or go for a walk if you can, and you'll be 100% in no time.

I'm surprised with your preference for warmer weather you're living in the snowbelt haha. But I agree. I honestly thought we'd have an awesome sunny week but it's been gloomy. I suspect it's because the lakes are still running warm even though the air temperature is cold creating more condensation and hence more clouds and mist. 20's are increasingly rare from Nov-Mar in Ontario. We might get the odd one or two in March but that's rare. YYZ has only hit 20C 4 times since 2000. 1980's and 1990's had several but prior to that it was maybe once every few years. Otherwise, our best chance at hitting 20C again is April 2021 so strap in.

Interesting. Goes back to what I was saying earlier. Cold Octobers are rare in Nina's. 1988 and 1999 were both crap. There was a few cold outbreaks but they were dry as hell overall. 1974-75 was a warm winter with no cold outbreaks. I'll take the other 3 any day. Btw hope you're feeling better

To be honest, I know some right off the boat. But most of the time I have to google "F to C" just so you guys can understand. I personally like C > F and km/hr > mph but I prefer inches > cm for snow.

I agree. Although some Nov's can be hit or miss, i.e. Nov 2016 or 2010. Same thing with March. Some exceptionally cold Marches have occurred in La Nina's. Jan/Feb can be our best month if the gradient pattern that is so common in Nina's sets up over our area.

Pretty impressive block over the Pole. Haven't seen that in a while. Cold outbreaks like this are rare in La Nina Octobers.