Snowstorms

That's exactly it. Half the time it's just mood flakes. That's what happens when you live downwind of the Lakes. And lake effect snow compacts way to quickly. Not a huge fan. One time we got 6" in <2 hours in Dec 2017 and in 2 days it compacted to 2" despite temperatures <20F.

That's the norm every winter in Toronto. Sun comes out maybe 30% of the time in DJF.

I like the ridge placement on the Euro out west, ideal for our region. Got a half ass block near Newfoundland too which could help funnel some cold air in. Interesting, nonetheless. When Alek is excited, you know it’s real.

Definitely getting a little excited for Sun night-Mon for our first potential snow event of the season. As it stands now, areas close to the Lake will likely remain as rain with some mixing possible. Just away from the Lake is where it gets tricky. Upper air temps (700mb and 850mb) look to stay below freezing as a cold HP moves in tomorrow and funnels a cold NE wind out ahead of the impending WAA from the LP. That means there will be heavy precip rates at the height of the storm. The tricky part is the sfc temps which will likely be around freezing if not slightly above. We'll have to see if dynamic cooling can help us out but that's strictly from an observational standpoint. Quicker dynamic cooling means the GTA will see ~2-3" (4-7cm) and slower means ~1" (1-3cm).

18z NAM has ~3-4" (7-10cm) for Toronto Sun night-Mon. I don't buy it but there's a possibility folks from Detroit-Ottawa could see their potential first snow event of the season. Upper air temps will be solidly below freezing but sfc temperatures will be marginal at best unless we see some CAD.

The cold October we saw this year was unusual for a Nina. In fact, the upcoming pattern looks more like a Nino than a Nina. When you have such a strong PV parked over Alaska to start December, it usually sticks around for most of the month. Not throwing in the towel for December, I'm just saying the pattern doesn't look great. Yes, I agree we do see earlier snows, in some cases, during November but that means nothing if we go multiple weeks during the heart of winter without any sustained cold/snow. Last winter is a perfect example. I don't like considering snow as a statistic to derive if a winter is warm/cold. Snow is just a byproduct, for lack of a better word, and you just need to be around the freezing mark for it to snow. For some cities just because it’s around the freezing mark, it doesn’t mean it’s below normal. In the last 30 years, we've seen exceptionally warm winters as compared to the preceding 30 years. For example, 1997-2000, 2001-02, 2005-06, etc. 2008-09 finished below average in Toronto but thanks to December and January. Feb/Mar 2009 were not cold by any means even for Detroit. In that regard 2009-10 and 2017-18 both finished near average to slightly below but again thanks to a couple cold stretches. It wasn't sustained which is my point.

I agree since 2005-06 we've only had 3 actual cold winters, i.e. 2010-11, 2013-14 and 2014-15. 2006-07 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. 2008-09 was only cold from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2009-10 featured couple cold shots through DJF but nothing extraordinary. 2017-18 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Dec to early Feb. 2018-19 had that 4-6 week stretch from mid-Jan to early Mar. Cold winters are becoming increasingly rare it would seem.

I agree we managed to finish above average with ~18" in December 2016. Even last December as warm as it was, we managed to finish near average. Other warm Decembers like 2014 we were able to squeeze in a surprise 7" storm. I mean it's possible to get some snow in an overall warm month if the transient cold shots can be timed right with a developing storm like we saw in Dec 2007. 1988-89 was dry overall and a crappy Nina winter. You're right. Nov 1975/2008 both featured a warm-up. In fact, 1975-76 and 2008-09 were in many ways alike overall. But I don't think this December will be anything like Dec 75 or Dec 08. Not until we start seeing some ridging around Alaska to create a cross polar flow as most of Western Canada looks to be exceptionally warm to start December.

There's nothing I see that would suggest your average cold La Nina December this year. Both the GEFS/EPS are adamant on developing and maintaining the PV around Alaska to begin December. On top of that stratospheric temperatures are near record lows which is not good if you're hoping for a -AO/NAO. One thing that is perplexing is the El Nino flavor to the upcoming pattern. Models have a somewhat active STJ and if we can keep getting some transient cold shots, i.e. Dec 2007, we can cash in. I don't think December will be as warm as Dec 2011, but a blend of Dec 2016, 2007 and 1988 sounds more realistic. Overall, I’m not impressed with the upcoming pattern. The cold air is locked up in the Arctic and Alaska while most of Canada bathes in warmth. Over the last 10-15 years, our winter months have been shrinking. Most of our snow/cold has been occurring over a 3-6-week time frame. Last 4 winters are prime examples.

That's a terrible pattern. PV parked over Alaska with a flat ridge just west of Hawaii. On top of that we got a massive trough over Greenland which is indicative of +AO/NAO. The cold over our region is transient at best driven largely by the +PNA across the PNW. Give's me 2011-12 vibes.

Wind gusts peaked at 70mph. You're right it's probably foam insulation board. Hope nobody got hurt or got their cars damaged.

This was over the weekend. Very careless and I suspect some people will file lawsuits lol. https://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/comments/juux1a/heavy_winds_causing_plywood_to_fly_off_a_yonge_st/

Might be a glitch in the matrix.

Quite similar atmospheric and oceanic weather patterns between this year and 1988, also a Nina year. 1988-89 was one of the strongest La Nina's in modern times and also came after two Nino's like this year. However, I don't expect this years La Nina to be similar in magnitude. 1988-89 was a mediocre winter and was fairly dry, which is unusual for our region.

What a beautiful day or should I say what a beautiful stretch. 24.2C (75.5F) at YYZ as of 2pm. This is unheard of at our latitude especially in November. This warm spell is equivalent to Morch. Truly exceptional. The warmer records are outweighing the colder ones of late. 2011-12, 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2019-2020 are among our warmest winters ever. All happened in one decade lol.

Might as well say NoWarmber.

Euro and GEFS both have a massive ridge setting up over the Plains next week. Let's not forget the pig vortex over AK and flat NPAC ridge. Looks like 2011.

21C right now at YYZ, which is close to 70F. Never thought we'd hit it again until next Spring but there's a good chance we approach 20C (70F) every day until next Tuesday. What a crazy year.

Mid to high 60's and sunshine for the next 4 days. Simply amazing

December 2015 was the warmest on record, locally. 2015-16 was terrible expect for the cold outbreak in mid Feb and April snowstorm in my area. I'll take last winter over 16-17 though.

Beautiful day today! I forgot what a sunny day looks like. 66F right now.

The first accumulating snowfall of the season today in Toronto. Got about 0.5" right now. Pretty intense LES band off GB.

Lake effect snow band that came off GB is ripping through Toronto right now. Near whiteout conditions. 0.5" so far.

That band off GB looks intriguing. If it can hold serve, we might get some decent snow flurries here. Nice to see LES firing up again.

I agree. After the last three cold November's, it would be nice to have a true Indian summer. Pretty common in Nina's. November temps have no correlation to winter.