Snowstorms

We had over 100 days of snow-cover in 2013-14. That ice storm solidified the snow base and we just kept adding onto it. Despite that mid Jan thaw we had, our snowpack still survived. I won't forget watching the 2014 winter classic on TV, in Ann Arbour if I'm not mistaken, and seeing all that heavy snow coming down for hours. We missed out on that storm unfortunately. 2010-11 was another great La Niña winter. Highly unlikely this year's La Niña will peak anywhere near that year. Our area, specifically Detroit - Toronto, can do well regardless of ENSO state. 2008-09 was just great especially coming off the heels of 07-08. I got over 30" that December alone. I was in high school during that Dec 2008 storm and I remember getting a half day because of all the snow which kick started the winter holidays haha. Jan 2009 had some impressive cold across much of the east. One of the craziest December cold snaps in recent times was in Dec 2017 around Christmas time. Although we haven't seen a wall to wall cold winter since 2014-15, we have seen some impressive cold shots as ORH noted in his previous post, i.e. Jan 2019.

Experienced a once in a lifetime ice storm in Dec 2013. Was also the coldest winter on record in more than 25 years in my neck of the woods. Apparently parts of Manitoba were colder than the surface of Mars that winter. Feb 2015 however was the coldest month ever recorded in Toronto. I wouldn't mind a repeat of 2013-14 or 2008-09. https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/toronto-ice-storm-2013-photos-from-the-gtas-winter-nightmare

This will likely continue strengthening through next week. That warm pool has an eerie resemblance to 2013-14 but at the same time it also concedes with a strengthening -PDO. Early guess would be 2013-14/2008-09 and 2017-18 blend using the most recent Nina years. La Nina's can transition into winter pretty quickly. Just ask Denver next week.

Was a cool day today. Maxed out at 73F this aft. Down to 60F now with a forecast low of 50F. Dew point was 42F earlier. The warmest temp. for the next 7 days is tomorrow with a high ~75F. Welcome Fall.

Got another 0.4" with this. Nothing impressive lol. Models have a more typical late Fall type of system next week that could bring widespread rain if it comes to fruition. Will be monitoring.

That PNA ridge off the Pacific coast is a bit too far west hence the trough sets up towards the Prairies and Plains on the Euro. On the flip side, seems like the Bermuda high has strengthened over the last few runs and that ends up pushing more heat towards our region next week. That cut-off on the Euro throws a wrench in any long-lasting cold for our region. The Euro OP seems to have support from the EPS too. The GFS ensembles eventually break off the cross polar flow and shift the ridge towards Alaska around mid-month and the heat builds back up again lol. How long it lasts? Hard to say. Seems like September may end up warmer than normal again.

Rained pretty good last night. As per radar, Kitchener was in the heaviest bands as compared to surrounding areas. Unless your house has a dome and it completely missed your backyard. The thunderstorm ~2am last night woke me up. As of 2am, YYZ recorded 0.4" (10.4mm). Not sure if more fell afterwards but I wouldn't suspect anything more than 0.2" if it did. Still better than last weekend’s shitshow where it rained everywhere in the entire province expect Kitchener and Toronto.

He's a time traveler.

La Nina Septembers are hit-or-miss but they typically mean more ups and downs than consistent warmth or consistent cold through-out the month. So average sounds right.

Hey we in Toronto are in the same boat too. Fall usually signals the end of thunderstorm season and the start of more typical Fall storms. Better chances of rain with them as thunderstorms are more localized. He'll catch a good vibe then.

OT but starting to see that 540-line popping up especially across the northern parts of the sub forum on the LR GFS. Even starting to see some blue hues popping up in the Canadian Prairies. Real good chance we see our first real taste of Fall near Labor Day given current teleconnection forecast (+PNA/-EPO). Fall is coming.

Yeah, I just saw the radar. About to cross over to Lake Erie. Impressive line of severe thunderstorms, hearing reports of near hurricane force winds. Hopefully the storms tomorrow night and Saturday pan out. Dynamics look good for widespread t-storm development including Kitchener.

It was modeled to miss you. For us here in the city, the Niagara Escarpment can tear apart storms before they reach us but you're far away from it. Can't even use that excuse

Took this shot a few days ago as I was driving back down from a friends house. You can see the city in the background. Not a whole lot of humidity even tho the temp was ~88F. This area borders the Oak Ridges Moraine, hence the higher elevation.

Didn't even make it to 70F yesterday. Already up to 83F today at last obs. A lot of cloud cover though. Hopefully it clears up.

Most recent MEI value (JJ) was -1.0 which is borderline moderate La Nina. The new value for JA may come in higher as we've seen more progressive cooling across all ENSO regions through-out this month. Further cooling should continue over the next few weeks as a strong trade wind burst is expected next week esp over western ENSO regions. The new MEI v2 uses 5 variables compared to the old MEI which used 6. I prefer MEI as it takes into consideration all ENSO regions compared to ONI.

Heat wave is over for us. Currently 66F with an expected high ~75F today. Got down to 57F last night. Had the windows open, felt real nice.

3.33" this month so far at YYZ but that number is deceiving. 3.1" of that fell in 3 days earlier this month. In reality only 4.2" has fallen since July 12th. Models are showing couple thunderstorm risks tomorrow and the chance for more steadier rain Friday night into Sat morning. Let's see if that verifies. Been dry as hell.

Been a boring ass summer. Barely any severe thunderstorms and the thunderstorms we did get were either late in the evening or at night lol. Even with all the extended periods of dry weather we got this summer, not one day was cloud free. Aside from the extreme heatwave we had in early July, we haven't had anything remotely close to that all summer. The heatwave going on right now isn't anywhere as extreme as that was. Today was the first day all month that Toronto hit 90F lol.

It sucks to live downwind of the lakes especially when you've got Georgian Bay, Lake Simcoe and Lake Huron to your north and Lake Ontario to your south. In the summer, you can never get a full on sunny day because by the late morning, the clouds start rolling in and it becomes partly cloudy until sunset. On the other hand, in the winter, the Sun hardly comes out lol.

A line of strong thunderstorms, primarily non-severe, off Lake Huron this morning literally disintegrated as it approached Toronto late this morning. Story of this summer. It hasn't rained, even a drop, since August 4.

Nina winters with some NAO blocking are epic, i.e. 55-56, 64-65, 70-71, 95-96, 08-09 and 10-11.

They've made masks mandatory in all indoor settings including apartments and condominiums (public areas). Gyms and fitness centers finally opened up after being closed for nearly 5 months. I believe they're contemplating on keeping that US-Canada border closed until December.

We received nearly 4" of rain these past 3 days. Did not see that coming. Now to enjoy some nice sunshine and seasonal temps for the rest of the week. Toronto was under a tornado watch today. Second time this year, pretty crazy.

Got ~25mm yesterday in my area with that storm cell. Better chance this weekend for some more widespread thunderstorms. We'll need to watch the "tropical" storm coming up the east coast and where it tracks and how it interacts with the low coming in from the Midwest. That will determine where the thunderstorms develop over the weekend.