Snowstorms

How is upstate NY doing considering you guys are our closest neighbor? Corona cases have been steadily rising here since late August. 732 cases today which is the highest daily count since this pandemic began. No real progression towards a second lockdown yet, however back in the summer they made masks mandatory in all indoor settings. As of now the border remains closed for all non-essential travel.

2016-17 came off a very strong Nino and was during +PDO that started in 2014. I would assume even just based off that, it's not an ideal analogue for this year. I wonder if we see a multi-year Nina event this year and would it be enough to move us back into a longer term deep -PDO like the late 2000s. Last multi-year Nina event was 1998-2001 and prior to that 1973-1976.

Dec 08 and January 2009 were both awesome up this way with 26" and 28", respectively. We cracked freezing 4 days in Jan 09 but it was barely above. We had better snow cover retention in 2008-09 than 2007-08. Although 2008-09 was a +QBO, it was a second year Nina with a deeply -PDO unlike this year.

A lot of Gulf Low's that winter. Outside of LES, I'm assuming Western NY did pretty well with those.

Euro and CFS both have a robust easterly wind burst over the next 2 weeks. Still a lot of cold subsurface anomalies esp below eastern Nino regions. I would expect the ENSO regions to cool down over the next few weeks solidifying a moderate Nina come NDJ. Even across western regions it has cooled down some over the past few weeks. We currently have an east based La Nina right now. 2017 and 2007 are the two most recent east-based La Nina’s. 2013 too if you want to consider it as it was borderline weak Nina. I would assume Nina's are fairly dry for your region in the winter.

Forgive me if I am wrong as I'm still learning about the Hadley Cell Circulation and Global Angular Momentum on my own, but doesn't a typical La Nina induce the expansion of the Hadley Cell?

1949-50 was a strong Nina gradient winter. However, QBO was negative that winter.

Wow, that's a sick view. Good vibes. Wanted to go there this year but then Covid happened.

Looked back at some historic snowstorms during previous La Nina's and one really stood out to me. On Feb 24, 1965 a strong Gulf Low had developed and tracked up north towards the Ohio Valley and later on to Quebec. Toronto recorded 17" with that storm. I was reading an old news article that mentioned it was the worst storm in Detroit in 35 years with nearly a foot of snow. Some other cities like Indianapolis received 10" of snow and Toledo received close to a foot as well. Would be nice to experience something like that again. I'd gladly take a repeat of 1964-65, thanks.

07-08 was a good redemption winter after 06-07. Hoping it's colder than 2007-08 though. There are some impressive cold Nina winters following Nino's. Hoping for a similar outcome this year. Although compared to 06-07, we ended last season with 57".

Was hot garbage up this way too. Only 32". Only thing impressive about that winter was the Feb cold snap.

There's a good chance this year could be one of the weakest flu seasons on record, in part thanks to Covid. I think another lockdown is quite possible but not to the extent we experienced earlier this year. I think many countries including USA are better managing the situation now compared to Mar/Apr. If anything they might close down certain restaurants, bars and other more crowded indoor spaces to limit the spread. At this point until we have a worldwide vaccine, no lockdown or restrictive measures will curb the spread. Where is the hot spot right now in the USA?

1970-71 was another great winter up this way. 71.0" which is 25" above our seasonal average. DJFM all featured below normal temps. 1970-71 La Nina came after two consecutive Nino's (1968-70), similar to this year.

95-96..started great (Nov/Dec). Jan/Feb were just cold and dry and frankly boring. Mar was great and April too. Overall, we finished above avg (59.2") and 2.4 degrees below avg. 05-06..started great (Nov/Dec). Rest of the winter was trash. Mild and snowless. If I'm not mistaken, it's top 10 or top 15 least snowiest winter on record at YYZ. Finished the season with 34". 07-08.. best winter ever. Every month was epic. Finished the season with 92". Another station in the city finished with 99". Double our seasonal avg.

700 new cases today in Ontario setting a new single-day high record. 60% of them were in Toronto. After spending most of the summer with <100 cases per day, we've been rising exponentially since late August. Ironically, the province reopened Casino's today. Casinos in Ontario are run by the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation which is a crown corporation owned by the Government. Schools have also resumed, and we've had dozens of cases linked to various schools. I feel as though a second lockdown is coming and could be far worse than anything we experienced back in Spring.

Starting to see some more foliage here now.

Going through this thread, I did not know how hard it is for most of the Mid Atl. to get some decent snow. Granted I would love to experience a blizzard like Jan 2016, Dec 2010 or Feb 2010. We don't get storms like that up this way. It's crazy how many variables need to come together for you guys to get even half decent snow. Up here we prefer La Nina's > El Nino's but that doesn't mean El Nino's are bad either. For example, our snowiest Nov is an El Nino (1940), our snowiest Dec is an El Nino (1951) and our 2nd snowiest Jan is also an El Nino (1966). Our top 2 coldest winters ever (DJF) are also El Nino's (1976-77 and 1969-70). However, our top 3 snowiest winters on record are La Nina's (1937-38, 1949-50 and 2007-08). Records go back to 1937 at the airport. But believe it or not our least snowiest winter on record is a La Nina (2011-12). 2009-10, the golden winter for Mid Atl., ended up as the 2nd least snowiest winter on record here. Two different ENSOs but with the same outcome. We can do pretty good here sometimes regardless of ENSO state. Even 1995-96 we nickeled and dimed our way up to 59" (14" above avg).

Persistent cloud cover. With that -NAO block building up near Newfoundland were likely going to see some lake effect rain showers and constant clipper activity for the next week or so. The GFS stalls the low in Hudson Bay for a few days too. It'll be cool and wet regardless. Our best chance for widespread frost will likely be next weekend.

Perhaps because Chicago is a bigger city and it would experience more UHI than DTW? It was the same out here. Many of the areas outside the city got down below freezing last week whereas YYZ only bottomed out at 37.5F. UHI and the warmer lakes this year are playing a role in stabilizing nighttime temperatures in city areas.

Went north of the city this past weekend to see if there's any major foliage going on. Not sure if you can tell from the pic or not but there's some starting up. Note: Thats not my house.

We are running exactly avg here at YYZ which is 61.1F as of yesterday. But these next few days will put us at a slight + departure like ORD. Warm overnight lows seem to be killing us or else we'd be running below normal. Not sure what the avg overnight low for DTW is but our average on this date is 46.4F.

Having a really hard time cooling down esp in the city due to extensive cloud cover. That UHI really kicking in. YYZ been stuck at 52F for three hours now whereas most suburbs despite cloud cover are down into the low 40s. Primary reason why this month's avg temp is running above normal still.

Frost advisories up all over the province for tonight. Forecast low of 37F at the airport but many of the burbs, including my area, could get down to 33-35F. Looking back through history, it would seem this cold is far from unusual. In fact, sub-freezing lows in September were common pre 1985 at the airport. There have been no sub-freezing lows at YYZ since 1993. Don't know if it's because of UHI or climate change or a combination of both.

There was one on Lake Huron back in 1996. Nothing since then or before.

This was back on Sunday as I was with a friend at a private airport just outside the city. Little better today but yesterday and Monday were just bad.