Snowstorms

I got 7" as well. But to be honest, what made this storm seem better than it actually was aside from the fact that it was a frustrating winter, was the massive rain storm a week before lol. A rain storm of that caliber is unheard of in January at our latitudes. We got 3" of rain.

I got 2.2". It sucks it'll melt by tomorrow lol. Another rainer on tap for us this weekend.

Track is still up in the air, but I wouldn't be surprised if areas north of Barrie end up with 10-20cm (4-8") this weekend. Then again Parry Sound, Muskoka, etc average ~320cm (125") every winter. Their proximity to Georgian Bay helps them considerably. We in Toronto rarely get lake effect snow from Lake Ontario because an east to west wind is extremely rare due to the Coriolis effect. It sucks I know lol. That's why we only average 110-120cm (43-47") every winter. But I'll take what we get.

12z Nam is further north. Looks like a decent hit for Iowa with widespread 4-8". A bit too far north for Milwaukee though. However, with a strong HP across Quebec, I suspect models are downplaying surface temperatures. Wouldn't be surprised to see freezing rain in some areas.

Well-deserved for Toronto after experiencing 4 futility winters since 2006 lol. Temperatures were marginal even for us. It's been a weird start I agree. Quite a lot of disparity in amounts and precip types even just 20km apart. I had a hunch we'd get maybe an inch as I was looking at last night's HRRR but did not expect to see 2-4" across the GTA with the shortwave. Haha. I'm sure many people near the Lakeshore and south probably think it's another snowless start to winter. YYZ has missing snowfall data since Dec 1 so I’m not exactly sure what the YTD amount is officially but I’d suspect its between 35-40cm (14-16”). I'm at 43.4cm (17.1") on the season as of today. Just for laughs, YYZ recorded 42.8cm (16.8”) back in 2011-12.

Got a surprise 2.2" last night. Looks like a winter wonderland.

In a month you'll get over the weenieness. Trust the process.

It's similar here as well but as me and @40/70 Benchmark discussed it's very subjective. We average ~7-8" in March so going back to 96 here it is for us in terms of average for each ENSO state. I used the ONI data. ENSO 2 Strong Nino : 9.8" 2 Mod Nino: 5.2" (We got Trace in 2010 and 10.4" in 2003 so the avg of 2 is below) 5 Weak Nino including 2014-15: 5.8" 5 La Nada: 9.5" 5 Weak Nina: 4.5" 2 Mod Nina: 8.1" 4 Strong Nina: 11.5"

My point was that Nina Marches are generally colder than Nino Marches due to the background ENSO state or at least they have been of late. That's all I was trying to say from the start. Snowfall is subjective because it depends on geographic location especially by March. There are exceptions but ideally you want a colder month than a warmer month. I’m not familiar with everyone’s snowfall records/averages in March. Edit: Anyhow, didn't mean to create this allusive argument.

That whole winter was a furnace for all of us. You can say the exact same thing for last winter since the two winters had similar patterns. March 2020 was warm for all of us. You can run the exact same graph for the last 10 Nino's (2020, 2019, 2016, 2015, 2010, 2007, 2005, 2003, 1998 and 1995) and Nina's (2018, 2017, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 2006, 2001, 2000, 1999) and tell me what you get.

You need some sort of ridging in the Pacific especially for you guys before Atlantic blocking. +EPO is bad for all of us. It's 43F in Winnipeg today, more than 20 degrees above average. That's the last thing any of us need for snow.

I'm not comparing the two. March 2012 was historic and remains in a league of its own. But March 2010 was warm too except for the southern states. Two different ENSO states. The only difference is once the blocking weakened in 2009-10, the Nino forcing took over the pattern leading to a warm March. The blocking in 2010-11, a strong Nina, weakened by late February too. But once the Nina took over most of us in the NE ended up cooler or near average. But I'm 100% sure anyone south of NYC would take a Nino over a Nina.

Well you can apply the exact same logic for 2012 then. 2012 was garbage for everyone. So, I don't see how March 2010 was a fluke, the blocking weakened, and Nino took over. The last two Nina Marches were better for areas further south like NYC. Due to stronger ENSO forcing as winter wears on, Nina Marches generally tend to be colder than Nino Marches due to Alaskan ridging. There are exceptions, you're right.

How were some of the 60's and 70s Nina's/Nino's in NYC/Long Island? Everybody seems to refer to these decades as some sort of golden age for winter lovers. There were a couple good winters up here in that time frame.

No, I definitely agree. I meant to say of late. Nino Marches are great up here for the most part too. I would gladly take a repeat of March 2007, 2005, or 2003 just to name a few. The past couple Nino Marches have been trash, i.e. 2020, 2019, 2016, 2010, etc.

Which led to a massive cold outbreak across Europe in February. We got the short end of the stick though.

It depends. I'll take a Nina March over a Nino March. March 2008 was golden here with 22" as was March 2001 with 16" and March 2011 with 12". There are exceptions like Morch 2012 or March 2006.

You can thank the frequent Nino's from 2014-2019 for that. 2016 was near average and only 2017 was below. Both Nina's. This years Nina is behaving like a Nino this month.

1881-82 was a warm winter in Toronto but the severity of the warmth was nowhere near Dec 2015 or Feb 2017. And surprisingly Jan 1882 finished slightly below average. But we only saw 30" that winter. There was a super El Nino that occurred from 1876-1878. They say it may have been the strongest El Nino ever recorded. It could've created a lag effect in the atmosphere leading to a couple warm winters in that time frame, i.e. 1877-78, 1879-1880 and 1881-82. 1931-32 on the other hand was warm here too. From Dec 1 to Feb 29, Toronto only recorded 14 days below freezing. Only one in January. In comparison, we recorded 18 days below freezing in 2011-12, 21 days in 2001-02, 26 days in 2015-16 and and 28 days last winter from Dec 1 - Feb 28/29. I think 2013-14 was 50+. So, 1931-32 was super warm. Despite that the frequency of mild winters has increased over the last 20-25 years as you mentioned. Interestingly enough, Feb 2015 reigns as Toronto's coldest month ever recorded going back to 1840.

Extended MEI data in the link below. MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index. Slightly different than ONI but I find it more transparent. 1931-32 was a warm neutral. 1930-31 was a strong El Nino. La Nina didn't happen till 1933-34. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

Nothing but rainers on the GFS lol. Have your umbrellas ready boys.

I'm assuming that's the La Nina fighting to take control of the current pattern? Looks like a hybrid Aleutian ridge. Aleutian ridges are a bit too far west to allow us in the East to cash in on true arctic air as opposed to the EPO but it'll at least get the source region cold. It's way above average across Western Canada this week. It's 40F in Winnipeg today and their average high is supposed to be 18F. That block across the Ural region looks intriguing too. Didn’t Dec 08 feature a prominent North Pacific ridge?

Nice to see you folks getting some snow even if it's not a whole lot. Been tough for the Mid-Atlantic lately. Hope you guys can cash in on some storms this winter which I understand can be difficult in a La Nina.

I agree. East to West winds are rare. You guys in Upstate NY get all the fun when winds are out of the NW or WNW. This year sucks for lake effect so far. Yeah check it out. Two 20" storms and one 16". Truly epic. https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2008&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&timeframe=2&Month=3&Day=1&Year=1870

That Blizzard of 99 was epic. I was a little kid so I don't recall but it dumped 16-24" across Toronto. We finished Jan 1999 with 46". They called the army to help shovel the snow. I believe its in our top 5. March 1870 takes the cake with 62". Big storms are rare here but 12-16" storms can happen every 1-3 years. 07-08 had 3 of them and another 3 8-12" storms.