Snowstorms

I got 7" as well. But to be honest, what made this storm seem better than it actually was aside from the fact that it was a frustrating winter, was the massive rain storm a week before lol. A rain storm of that caliber is unheard of in January at our latitudes. We got 3" of rain.

Track is still up in the air, but I wouldn't be surprised if areas north of Barrie end up with 10-20cm (4-8") this weekend. Then again Parry Sound, Muskoka, etc average ~320cm (125") every winter. Their proximity to Georgian Bay helps them considerably. We in Toronto rarely get lake effect snow from Lake Ontario because an east to west wind is extremely rare due to the Coriolis effect. It sucks I know lol. That's why we only average 110-120cm (43-47") every winter. But I'll take what we get.

Well-deserved for Toronto after experiencing 4 futility winters since 2006 lol. Temperatures were marginal even for us. It's been a weird start I agree. Quite a lot of disparity in amounts and precip types even just 20km apart. I had a hunch we'd get maybe an inch as I was looking at last night's HRRR but did not expect to see 2-4" across the GTA with the shortwave. Haha. I'm sure many people near the Lakeshore and south probably think it's another snowless start to winter. YYZ has missing snowfall data since Dec 1 so I’m not exactly sure what the YTD amount is officially but I’d suspect its between 35-40cm (14-16”). I'm at 43.4cm (17.1") on the season as of today. Just for laughs, YYZ recorded 42.8cm (16.8”) back in 2011-12.

Got a surprise 2.2" last night. Looks like a winter wonderland.

In a month you'll get over the weenieness. Trust the process.

You need some sort of ridging in the Pacific especially for you guys before Atlantic blocking. +EPO is bad for all of us. It's 43F in Winnipeg today, more than 20 degrees above average. That's the last thing any of us need for snow.

How were some of the 60's and 70s Nina's/Nino's in NYC/Long Island? Everybody seems to refer to these decades as some sort of golden age for winter lovers. There were a couple good winters up here in that time frame.

Which led to a massive cold outbreak across Europe in February. We got the short end of the stick though.

You can thank the frequent Nino's from 2014-2019 for that. 2016 was near average and only 2017 was below. Both Nina's. This years Nina is behaving like a Nino this month.

1881-82 was a warm winter in Toronto but the severity of the warmth was nowhere near Dec 2015 or Feb 2017. And surprisingly Jan 1882 finished slightly below average. But we only saw 30" that winter. There was a super El Nino that occurred from 1876-1878. They say it may have been the strongest El Nino ever recorded. It could've created a lag effect in the atmosphere leading to a couple warm winters in that time frame, i.e. 1877-78, 1879-1880 and 1881-82. 1931-32 on the other hand was warm here too. From Dec 1 to Feb 29, Toronto only recorded 14 days below freezing. Only one in January. In comparison, we recorded 18 days below freezing in 2011-12, 21 days in 2001-02, 26 days in 2015-16 and and 28 days last winter from Dec 1 - Feb 28/29. I think 2013-14 was 50+. So, 1931-32 was super warm. Despite that the frequency of mild winters has increased over the last 20-25 years as you mentioned. Interestingly enough, Feb 2015 reigns as Toronto's coldest month ever recorded going back to 1840.

Extended MEI data in the link below. MEI stands for Multivariate ENSO Index. Slightly different than ONI but I find it more transparent. 1931-32 was a warm neutral. 1930-31 was a strong El Nino. La Nina didn't happen till 1933-34. https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei.ext/table.ext.html

Nothing but rainers on the GFS lol. Have your umbrellas ready boys.

I wonder if that record breaking -EPO in 2013-14 and 2014-15 is somehow connected towards what Anthony is alluding to in his tweet here. Because after 2014, SST's in the North Pacific skyrocketed and we haven't been able to shake it off since. Coincidentally, we haven't had a cold winter since then either. I wonder if there is an underlying relationship tied back to that warm pool. The PDO also flipped to positive in early 2014 as a result. Although we maybe in a -PDO right now, it's far from the -PDO phase we had from 2007-2014. The strong El Nino in 2015-16 may have further enhanced that warm pool and the lack of any strong La Nina configuration since 2010-2011 has prevented SST's in the Pacific from properly cooling off. Just my 2 cents.

Wonder what's the cause. Thing's just changed after that deep -EPO winter in 2013-14.

Yes it does look a bit stormier but nothing extraordinary. Overall look isn't great especially if you like snow cover. And not even a single fantasy snowstorm on the GFS. It's bad.

That winter literally started Jan 25th or something and ended March 7th. Barely 1.5 months. That's it. Better than 2011-12 though lol.

I don't like the word stormy and Nina in the same sentence. Just because it's a La Nina doesn't necessarily mean it'll be stormy for our sub-forum. The same logic can be applied with El Nino's. The reason I say that is because there have been a number of stormless Nina's in the past, i.e. 2011-12, 1999-00 and 1988-89 just to name a few. Is stormless even a word lol? La Nina's tend to enhance the polar jet which results in more periodic cold shots than El Nino's and more clippers. El Nino's enhance the subtropical jet because it intensifies the Hadley Circulation creating more Pacific Jet extensions and milder air for us and Canada and cooler weather across the SE due to constant cloud cover and dynamic cooling. So I'd take my chances with a La Nina over an El Nino any day. I mean out of our top 5 snowiest winters, 4 are La nina's in Toronto. But I wouldn't expect a plethora of storms just because we have one. Right now La Nina forcing is being shunted due to other forces like the EPO/NAO/AO hence the lack of cold and snow in typical Nina Decembers.

Yeah he actually did. And I naively believed him. I think it was cause of those 90's winters and 2001-02 which made him reach to such a preposterous conclusion. But then of course that 2002-2005 stretch was snowy and cold. Probably thought it would be winters last hurrah before it ceased to exist in 2010.

Emotions are running high here. It's only Dec 4 lol. We should be thankful it still snows. According to my grade 3 teacher back in 2002, snow was going to become a "distant memory" by 2010 due to global warming. Well we've proved him wrong.

Melted pretty quick here. I guess cause the snow was very powdery. Yes I agree. Very short attention spans. Winters like 2012-13 are perfect examples where it was fairly mild until mid January before winter finally started up. The general public as a result considered it a snowy and cold winter because of a few weeks lol. But we both know how mild it was.

This. Our November snow melted in 3 days and the snow we got 2 days ago melted too despite being 14" on the season. Down here and towards SE Michigan, snow cover really doesn't start to build and pack on until after mid-December. But regardless its only Dec 4 and winter just started as you stated. I've gotten accustomed to the gloomy dark days of winter since it's a common thing here and we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day right now.

Nah. The November storm was a nice treat after the many snowless Novembers we had from 2006-2017. I'll take that as a win and well deserved after that hideous run. YYZ is up ~14" for the season which is an amazing start and I hope we can continue that. Almost everyone around us since 2009 has had some sort of record-breaking winter (in a good way). While we keep perpetuating 2007-08 and 2008-09, where many in this sub forum did well on anyways. We deserve a record-breaking winter because neither 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 were as it was for others. 3/5 futility winters happened since 2006-07 for a broader perspective which is insane. And to make it worse, 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2016-17 are in the top 10 or top 15 as well. So no, I am not ready for Spring. You need to expand your checklist because this ain’t it, chief.

Parts of New England about to get another blizzard. Rinse and repeat. They stay winning.

Warm sfc temps have limited accumulations across Toronto today. Amazing radar returns but surface is too warm for any accumulation even away from the Lake.

He's just having a weenie moment. Must be those LR GFS fantasy maps.