Snowstorms

Definitely further NW than the RDPS but still SE and colder than the NAM.

Nam has the low over Lake Erie meanwhile RGEM is by the PA/OH border. A good 200 mile difference.

I prefer a healthy balance between the 3 (Nino, Nina, Neutral). Can't have one more than the other. That's why the pattern between 2000-2015 was good. PDO was negative 70% of the time and not super negative either and we had a healthy balance of 6 La Nina's, 4 neutral, and 5 El Nino's.

Haha took me almost 2 hours to shovel this morning. We had 2-3" on the ground before the weekend storm that dropped 6-8" and now this storm which puts us at 16" on the ground. Glad you got a snowpack again after the melting you guys experienced early Feb. What is DTW's seasonal average? YYZ is at 37" for the season now.

Last time we had this much on the ground was January 2022 after we got a massive storm that dumped 15-20". March 2023 came close with 12-14" but it melted quickly. We also did in Jan 2019 after a storm dumped 12-16" with a maximum snow cover of 16-18".

1966-67 was almost borderline La Nina on ONI and MEI. Late bloomer like this year (coldest anomalies were late winter and spring). It lead to another cold neutral-borderline La Nina the following winter. Ironically 66-67 came on the heels of a strong El Nino with a ONI peak at 2.0, much like last year. So from an ENSO perspective, 66-67 is a good analog to this year. Ironically the PDO was primarily negative for much of the 60's with few periods of positive phases here and there. Although the PDO wasn't deeply negative that decade as it has been since 2019-20. Yet ironically despite the -PDO, we saw 4 El Nino's and only one La Nina that entire decade. I certainly believe the -PDO, which is being enhanced by the extreme marine heatwave near Japan, has been amplifying the string of warm winters and to some degree the frequent La Nina's. This combined with the continuing +AMO and two strong/super El Nino's since 2015 has certainly played a role in all the warm winters. I believe a healthy balance between neutral, El Nino, and La Nina is optimal and we haven't had that since the early-mid 2010s. And ideally a weak or mod El Nino. However, statistically speaking a -PDO between -0.5 to -1.5 is more favorable for snow/cold for the NE, New England, and the Great Lakes. A deeply -PDO has to much uncertainty for all of us. A +PDO is more beneficial for the Mid-Atlantic. Though one could argue against that too. DC averaged 23" in the 1960s vs. 16" in the 80s. But they require more than just a PDO phase for snowy patterns, much more volatility down there. The 1960's were a good decade here. Featured nothing but cold winters with an average snowfall of 53". I believe Central Park averaged 30" from 1960-1970. Quite a snowy decade for you guys too. Far cry from the +PDO dominated 1980s where Central Park only averaged 20". The 2000s and early 2010's were eerily similar to the 1960's with a similar -PDO type pattern.

Wheres @michsnowfreak Surely his area got some snow last night.

Yeah I agree. That dry slot really put a damper on rates for most of us initially as the storm was beginning to form and phase.

Ukie has a 978mb low near Buffalo Sunday afternoon. A big hit from SE Michigan to Ontario.

Your area would've lucked out close to 6" if that dry slot didn't happen for 2 hours yesterday. I talked about it the other day about how models can sometimes miss the dynamic cooling thanks to the cold high pressure across Quebec.

What a storm. Definite overachiever. The warm tongue did not materialize as modeled. We've warmed up to 25 now but that's probably as warm as it'll get. Measured 10" this morning. 10.2" officially at YYZ. Snow depth at 16" now. Spent 2 hours this morning shovelling.

Heaviest snow on the way for Toronto. YYZ at 5.5" as of 1am. 8" seems like a lock now. Models busted with the warmup. Currently 19. Models had a forecast around 30 by 1am.

I'm at ~13cm so far. 20cm seems like a good bet now. Rates should start picking up again. EC updated warnings with 15-20cm (6-8") expected now.

I don't think so. We're running several degrees colder than what was modeled at this current time. Even by the lake its sitting at -4C. Models had downtown at 0C (32F) right now. Areas away from the lake might end up staying as snow.

Snowfalls rates should pick up for you between midnight and 6am now. Your area still looks good for 20-30cm.

Glad you finally cracked the 10" mark and got something decent. Hope you feel better.

What part of the city you in again?

Just measured 4". Heavy snow right now.

The differences are pretty stark at 500mb b/w RGEM and GFS. Still no consistency yet.

Damn that pesky warm air crept through to you before you could hit 4". That dry slot between 630-8pm wasn't modeled by the mesoscale models and that put a damper on amounts for you.

How much snow did you get so far?

Mixing line (ice pellets/frz rain) advancing north towards Hamilton now. We'll see how far north that little warm nose goes. For now temps are sitting at 23. 3.2" at YYZ so far. Heaviest rates to come soon.

Pouring snow now with visibility down to 0.4 miles.

Your area should do well. Upwards of 12" or 30cm is possible. A lot of blowing snow possible tomorrow too.

Light snow has commenced with trace accumulations so far. Temps holding steady at 19. Had a little compaction since the weekend, but current snowpack is 7".