Snowstorms

Latest HRRR has ~2-4" (5-10cm) for your area. But it'll be light snow over a period of 24 hours. Still though, adds to your snowpack.

The GFS has been advertising extreme cold all winter long beyond 300 hours but it’s never come to fruition. Although, this time around it could be legit but I'm thinking towards the Prairies. With the cold centered around SK and MB along with a weak SE ridge, February could be our biggest month if other things align. The key is blocking. It's putting a damper on the current storm track, need that to ease up.

I agree. Storm is legit for Illinois and Indiana and point east including Philly, NYC and D.C. Congrats to the Chicago crew. Although, potential is there for upwards of 2-4" for parts of SEMI with this storm but it'll likely be localized. Next weekends storm is worth our attention as of now. We need a true Detroit to Toronto special like old times.

Not feeling very optimistic about this one for us. Strong blocking and lingering dry air basically shred this system as it tries to push north. Unless something drastically changes over the next 2 days, I wouldn't count on anything. Because of the block it literally moves N then E then N again. A NAO block is okay if its more towards Greenland and further east. Any block around Baffin Island is just bad all around. I’m hoping we can score something by mid Feb. The next storm is looking like a rainer for us. Congrats to the Chicago crew.

I agree. But there's still room for it to shift further north. A lot of moving parts for complete consensus. Like our recent storm which came surprisingly further north overtime. The two things we must monitor if we want a shift further north is the massive trough to our east and the piece of energy near Hudson Bay and its downstream impacts on our storm. The massive NAO block near Baffin Island will likely rip apart our storm, should it progress further north, limiting how much snow we can get. But I'd be okay with another 2-4" storm. Like how we nickeled and dimed our way to average last winter.

Should be from someone who's done good this season. That's the real good luck. So, anyone from parts of Michigan, NE Ohio, Iowa or Southern Ontario.

I was never good at biology in school haha. Perhaps I'll message you come spring when I do my spring gardening. I work in Finance and Accounting. I graduated from school back in 2017 and now I’m working towards my CFA designation. Though it’s been delayed right now because of Covid. I've always been interested in weather since I was a kid. It’s always been a passionate hobby for me. I just couldn't see myself working as a meteorologist though. However, I spend time learning more and more about weather every day because I find it interesting. I also find learning about space interesting too.

@StormfanaticInd + other Indy posters death band.

I agree. It's interesting to say the least. Only thing I’m concerned about is the progressive flow. The northern stream doesn’t really dig further south and like our current storm, it’s all southern stream. Nonetheless, it could be a decent overrunning event with some STJ influence too. We’ll know more as the week progresses and when it’s sampled come Thursday night.

Have yet to dip below 14F this season. We could tomorrow night which I believe would be the latest on record. Terrible. Even 2011-12 or 2001-02 dipped below 14F by this time.

Not the winter I expected. Endless cloudy days with zero precip on top of this stay at home order. You add them together and it equals boredom and depression. If we go all of Jan without a single snowstorm, I'm all in for Spring. It's Jan 15 and YYZ has yet to go below -10C lol. Just ridiculous at how warm it’s been.

Our avg high and low on March 31 is 45F and 28F, respectively. But I agree, it can be tough to get warm temperatures especially near the Lake when spring starts up. YYZ didn't even crack 60F last April which has never happened before since records began. To make it even worse we didn't even crack 70F till May 22 lol. Now that's rare but it goes to show you how hard it can be to get warmth to cross the escarpment in spring.

Unless we get a blizzard of 99 and/or Feb is historic, nothing and I mean nothing, can redeem this shitty month. About to be 2 weeks of literally nada in the heart of winter.

Mid Jan 2019 to early March 2019 was epic, at least locally. Nearly 50" in that 6-7 week stretch. How did your area fare?

Strong easterlies have dominated across the ENSO region primarily near the dateline and are expected to continue past mid-Jan which has driven the SOI to 2010-11 levels. So yes, for the moment it's expected to strengthen. Subsurface anomalies continue to remain cold. Wouldn't be surprised to see a second peak. Thus far, the La Nina hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere but there's growing evidence the ridge building across the west will slowly retrograde towards the Aleutians come February, which is more typical of a Nina. Global AAM has finally gone negative so we’ll see if that holds over the next few weeks. February is certainly going to be a strong gradient month with the La Nina fighting to take control of the pattern and impressive polar blocking. Feeling optimistic about February, it could be our best month.

You're right. There have been many instances where you and I have cashed in where the rest of the sub didn't. The upcoming pattern doesn't look favorable for clippers with a relatively weak polar jet. Need more Nina influence on the pattern. It's mixed between Nino and Nina right now. But one thing is for sure, there's potential for phased storms in the upcoming pattern. Hopefully we get a redux of a classic great lakes winter storm.

Wow, nice picture. You're lucky. The last time we had a sunny clear day like that was Dec 18 and before that Dec 6 lol. Terrible climo.

If that PNA ridge in the west can stay off the coast rather than poking into AB, we can see storms across our region. Otherwise the pattern is more favorable for the east coast given the strong west based -NAO. Would be nice if we had typical Nina like ridging towards AK and the Aleutians. Most of Western Canada continues to torch and that's never good for winter storms or sustained cold. But until Jan 15, a pretty boring stretch inbound.

Went for a drive in the area and snapped this pic yesterday. Would've been nice if the small lake was frozen but without any sustained cold, that ain't happening.

Probably the only spread the wealth storm we've had in the last 25 years. Read an article that regarded the Blizzard of 99 as being one of Chicago's worst blizzards ever.

What an epic storm. We need a repeat. Over 20" locally and the first in a series of storms that plastered Toronto over the following 2 weeks with over 40" of snow. They had to call the army. I was a little kid so I don't remember but I do recall being home for a week from school lol.

YYZ finished with ~13.6" but there's some missing data at the beginning of the month so I suspect it's close to 14.6". We finished above average as well. YYZ is ~23" on the season. Snow wise, it was a great month with that Dec 1 storm and Christmas storm. Otherwise, it was mild and pretty boring overall I agree. Let's hope January is better. Happy New Years!

I agree. If anything, it may help snow weenies out in the Mid-Atlantic with such an impressive west based -NAO. But for us, I don't foresee any 2014 or 2015 type of cold if the vortex remains parked up in AK. However, it should help in increasing snowfall probabilities as we'll have more cold air to work with than now.

Just crazy. I wonder if it has to do with people gathering for Christmas pre lockdown. The positivity rate is 8% today too. Not impressed with our current vaccination program. I understand it's about being fair and ensuring all Canadian's have the right and access to the vaccine. However, most of Canada's cases have been confined to 4 provinces (AB, BC, ON and QC). More than 80% of our entire country lives in these 4 provinces and half that in ON alone. They should be prioritizing 75% of the vaccine to these provinces where cases are surging not the Yukon for example. Target the vulnerable, elderly, nurses, doctors, etc. in these 4 provinces and have them all vaccinated by mid-January before you distribute a portion to other provinces. But what can you do? It's all bureaucratic bs. You can’t expect society to adhere to lockdown protocols if politicians themselves refuse to do the same. You can’t expect changes in cases if you’re not implementing proper lockdown procedures and vaccination rollouts. Everything since this pandemic began has been a complete mess and now were at record levels and trapped in our homes. 10 months in and people are going crazy mentally sitting at home. That one-month Toronto and Peel lockdown was completely unnecessary unless they locked the entire province down. And these lockdowns are half-ass too. Cases are surging because factories, warehouses and these big stores like Walmart continue to operate as normal not because of our average small one stop clothing store. Sorry for the rant but this is ridiculous now.

I agree. It's not the greatest pattern ever but it has the potential to produce under the right circumstances. Also to add to what you said, we've got a somewhat active STJ as well. If we can have the storms digging a bit more, we can certainly see some decent storms. It's like a hybrid Nino/Nina pattern mix. On the Pacific side we see the Nina trying to fight and take control of the pattern with a flat NP ridge just north of Hawaii, whereas we have a strong Aleutian low near Alaska, a common Nino feature. Do you think the forecasted trade wind burst coming this week will allow the Nina to have greater influence on our pattern? Specifically in helping to build an Aleutian ridge to cool down Canada. There's other reasons to be optimistic about, one specifically being a potential SSW by mid January.