Snowstorms

Looks decent for our area too. Might start as rain but could transition over rapidly.

1.6" today at YYZ putting us at 16.5" for the season now.

It was 6F this morning in Vancouver. Crazy cold.

YYZ reporting SN with visibility down to 0.5 miles. Not much accumulation, maybe an inch?

I think some Nina's are backloaded like 1949-50 or 1971-72 just to name a few. Hopefully that's the case this year.

Merry Christmas I didn't think so either especially in B.C. too. The warmest we ever got in Toronto was 104F and that was in 1936 too. Yeah it burned all down, a lot of bigger towns like Kamloops were evacuated too. They get crazy fires every year like California. I think Seattle and Vancouver have similar climo's. Look at Vancouver's forecast this week. 4"+ today. Can't believe it's more winter like there than here. https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/bc-74_metric_e.html

A lot of residential places in B.C. don't have a/c. Summer temps usually hover in the 70's and low 80's. So I can only imagine what 120 would've been like. My family said the air was choking because of all the wildfires. It was dry heat tho but if it happened here we would've been done.

Picked up 2.3" last night.

lmao went there last month, it was bone dry. They could use it.

That dual block (NPac Ridge + Greenland block) is shredding any system that tries to form and cut into our region. Not to forget that impressive Nina ridge in the south. Bummer. Pacific pattern is relentless, I don't see any major changes until at least January 10.

That's impressive. But January 1999 made up for that nicely I'm assuming.

The Nov 2020 storm was ~8" give or take. And the Jan 2020 storm came close too. But otherwise, I agree. Our climo just doesn't support big dogs. But I'm glad we crossed 100cm again.

Nice paste job this morning. Just over 2" at YYZ. Enough to put us slightly above average for the season. Another 9" more and we'll beat every winter since 2008-09.

Yeah, this storm really underperformed. Only 11cm at YYZ. Another one to add to our list. The November storm still reigns as our biggest storm this winter.

I agree, they are. It's going to be a nice storm for both of us. How's the current conditions in Buffalo right now? We'll need to monitor the mid-week event as well. Tonight's guidance trended weaker and further south. Wonder if we'll run into the same issue.

More heavier bands just about to cross over Lake Erie as per radar. That should tick up accumulations. 6-8"+ still looks like a good call atm.

More heavier bands moving into the GTA over the next hour. Should hopefully ramp up accumulations. At last OBS, YYZ recorded 0" unofficially. Not sure if that is correct.

Crazy LES event going on right now just south of Toronto towards Hamilton. Over 12" in some places already. Tomorrow's LES event will likely be south of Toronto too given the wind orientation. It sucks for us up this way.

SEMI and ON could use a winter storm now. My second thread since last winter, hopefully this is a success too. Let's see.

Latest HRRR has ~2-4" (5-10cm) for your area. But it'll be light snow over a period of 24 hours. Still though, adds to your snowpack.

The GFS has been advertising extreme cold all winter long beyond 300 hours but it’s never come to fruition. Although, this time around it could be legit but I'm thinking towards the Prairies. With the cold centered around SK and MB along with a weak SE ridge, February could be our biggest month if other things align. The key is blocking. It's putting a damper on the current storm track, need that to ease up.

I agree. Storm is legit for Illinois and Indiana and point east including Philly, NYC and D.C. Congrats to the Chicago crew. Although, potential is there for upwards of 2-4" for parts of SEMI with this storm but it'll likely be localized. Next weekends storm is worth our attention as of now. We need a true Detroit to Toronto special like old times.

Amazing analysis, great work. The 1980's and early 90's were just bad snow wise. Primary reason why the 40-year average is 108cm. But then you got the 1970’s that were exceptionally snowy. As per your analysis, moderate-strong El Nino's and strong La Nina's are usually snowless for us. Ideally, we'd want a weak-moderate La Nina. Weak Nino's aren't bad either as per your chart but it's a mix bag. I'd reckon the 80's and 90's Nino's were bad. Aside from 2006-07 and 2009-10, all other Nino's weren't bad since 2000. Excluding 2015-16 because it was a strong El Nino. Cold neutrals just seem bad but to be fair, I don't think we've had a neutral winter since 2013-14 and before that 2012-13 and 2003-04 no? The 1980's and early 90's just seem like anomalies in an otherwise consistent trend. However, we've seen a handful of warm winters in the last 15-20 years, more than any other decade. Do you think that's the new norm or just a cycle?

Not feeling very optimistic about this one for us. Strong blocking and lingering dry air basically shred this system as it tries to push north. Unless something drastically changes over the next 2 days, I wouldn't count on anything. Because of the block it literally moves N then E then N again. A NAO block is okay if its more towards Greenland and further east. Any block around Baffin Island is just bad all around. I’m hoping we can score something by mid Feb. The next storm is looking like a rainer for us. Congrats to the Chicago crew.

I agree. But there's still room for it to shift further north. A lot of moving parts for complete consensus. Like our recent storm which came surprisingly further north overtime. The two things we must monitor if we want a shift further north is the massive trough to our east and the piece of energy near Hudson Bay and its downstream impacts on our storm. The massive NAO block near Baffin Island will likely rip apart our storm, should it progress further north, limiting how much snow we can get. But I'd be okay with another 2-4" storm. Like how we nickeled and dimed our way to average last winter.