Snowstorms

Most people have been working from home since March 2020, including me. Schools are all closed today. They say it's the busiest highway in the world.

Oh okay thank you for clarifying. Is there a reason why manual measurements stopped? Budget constraints? Would've been cool if they continued especially for a storm like today.

I think even London is scoring with this storm, no? Yeah my friend had to go into the office today to pick up some paper work. Normally takes him 15-20 minutes via 427 but he's still not there and it's been an hour.

Yeah no storm from 2007-08 was like this. But it's a hard bet with Feb 2013. 8 straight hours of heavy snow at YYZ with that storm.

Puking snow right now in Toronto. Rates of 3-4"/hr. YYZ has reported visibility near zero for the past 3 hours. I measured 11" about 15 minutes ago. Many areas will end up close to 16-20" once all is said and done.

Which explains why EC issued a blizzard warning. A near perfect set up and purely synoptic. Another 6-8" is definitely possible. Did the Toronto station (the one that went back to the 1800s) stopped reporting?

That's crazy! I just measured ~28.0cm (11.0").

Env Canada issued a blizzard warning for Toronto. I've only ever seen this once in my life (Feb 2011).

Puking snow right now. I haven't measured yet but >8" for sure.

2" reported at YYZ in the last 2 hours and were not even at the heaviest rates yet. Rates could reach 2-3"/hr by 3 AM. Models showing up to 18" possible by tomorrow afternoon.

YYZ reporting 0.5 miles visibility. Latest models have the entire city getting between 12-20". Excited all of us are getting a worthy storm!

RGEM's been pretty good over last 2-3 years. NAM's really gone down hill with its performance.

I feel winters in our region took a different path after the Super Nino in 2015-16. Think about it. 2014-14 was the last widespread cold and snowy winter. Since then we've barely managed to get a decent winter. 2015-16 and 2016-17 were warm. 17-18 had that mid-late Dec - early Jan and 2 week Feb period of winter. 2018-19 lasted 6 weeks (mid-Jan to late Feb) and then the last two including this winter have been crap. Prior to 2015-16 we had longer lasting winters with more phased storm potentials. For example, 2013-14, 2012-13, 2010-11, 2009-10, 2007-08 etc. Just a personal opinion.

18z NAM shifts further SE leaving Toronto closer to 5cm or less. Too many moving pieces right now.

That's awesome. I will have to check that film out then. This storm was powerful Nor'easter. It's not talked about enough but this storm is definitely a top 10. Ironically a few months later the March 1993 storm happened but was a bit too far east for us. I don't know where I can find a radar reanalysis of this storm but would be pretty cool to see.

I was born a couple months later to remember it . This storm at the surface level is similar to the Dec 10-11, 1992 storm. That storm packed a punch for us. Most places in Toronto saw 15-20" (38-50cm) with some close to 2 feet. I'm not sure if you can remember that?

@blizzardof96 Any preliminary thoughts on this storm for us? Subtle differences in the track could mean the difference between 5-10cm vs 15-20+cm. The 12z GFS trended west vs 00z GFS to be more aligned with RGEM. You can also put NAM in that bucket too. The RGEM at 54hrs is more pronounced with the main energy and digs the energy across the midwest more than the NAM. This plays a key role later on and the difference becomes more apparent at 66hrs. Still a lot to iron out. One thing that could really amp up totals for Toronto is where the defo band sets up. I remember it well during the Feb 13 storm. Many places saw 30+cm (12"). Not super confident yet. I think models could still flop flop through 00Z tom.

YYZ got down to -6F but felt closer to -26F with the wind. Coldest temperature since 2019 lol. Not a fan of extreme cold with no snow on the ground though.

I'm guessing that 1 was Dec 2000 too lol. Only one that came close enough since was Dec 2017. Decembers are typically cold in Nina's too.

The 2" we had the other day pretty much melted away today lol. Ready for the cold dry air. Arctic air + barren ground = best combo.

Our snow will likely melt with the two warmups and then we will all be cold and dry next 2 weeks in the "heart" of winter. How fun

The trend seems to be weaker and further south right now. A large portion of the energy gets wrapped up further south into a potential secondary low. We'll see what tonights runs yield. I agree with the bold, it is ridiculous. Any reason why you feel we are seeing such high volatility among the models? 5-10cm does seem like a good bet for now. At the very least it should bring us closer to 50cm (20") for the season. Edit: Must be tough for meteorologists like yourself to issue a proper forecast right now.

@blizzardof96 Not feeling confident yet on snowfall amounts across the GTA. RDPS is south and weak, NAM 3km is north while the GFS/HRRR are nudged in between. The difference is more notable on the vort maps and the trough orientation and dig. At least we can be certain it'll most likely end up as snow lol. I think 5-10cm as of now would be a reasonable call.

I agree. 18z runs were much cooler and much snowier for us (10-15cm). Let's hope that holds serve for 00z tonight. Nice overrunning event. The blocking doing a number on keeping this storm from amping up more but it'll do. I'd assume models are playing catch up with those cold NNE winds? Thermals should cool pretty quick so I'd imagine snow ratios would become better and better as the precip continues to fall.

@blizzardof96 Latest RDPS is cooler than 06z for the GTA. However, 850's and sfc temperatures are quite marginal. I agree it will start as rain though but how quickly it transitions over is the real question. Those cold NNE winds can be underestimated by models sometimes so perhaps we could cool down rapidly. Might be a long light snow event after the initial thump moves through. Still not overly optimistic yet. But I'm thinking 4" away from the Lake and <5cm (2") near the Lake.