Snowstorms

Half that 5" came from the storm earlier this week that washed away a few hours later. Without any sustained cold, the snow can't stick around for more than a few hours. That'll likely change tomorrow but the pattern dries up too lol. That's the primary issue with some Nino's. You may have a juiced up STJ that may offer up bigger storm opportunities than Nina's, but the upper air pattern in Nino's sucks for our region which leads to either suppressed or upper great lakes storms. Some Nino's are great, some not.

been saving this one after i seen it on the road, for this message.

Actually the inverse is pretty bad too. Been a battle of extremes over the last 20-30 years. An actual feast vs famine. For example, Dec 2006, Dec 2015, and Dec 2018 are the 1st, 2nd, and 4th least snowiest December's on record at YYZ, respectively. 7/10 least snowiest December's on record have occurred since 1998. If expanded to top 13, then its more like 10/13 since 1998 lol.

Ain't been the winter for snow cover, so far. Hope things change. But after this storm, things dry out for the next 10 days lol.

Most of that 2-4"+ will fall within 3 hours with a robust leading frontal band. If it holds up and temperatures are cold enough, it'll be an intense 2-4" per hour rates for 2 hours before it switches to light snow and drizzle lol. Might also be some thunder.

Ya if we were above freezing up here, it would've been too warm for you down south then. And now we're both on the cusp of rain this year haha. It all started since that 2015-16 super nino. I wonder if this will become the new norm or it's just an anomaly and we are still dealing with it's effects (i.e., WPAC warm pool).

I can't lie though, apart from 21-22, every winter since 19-20 we've been extremely lucky. 90% of the major snow fell with marginal temps. For example, temperatures were around 31-33F with that March storm last year that dropped 10-12". And if we continue on this warming trend, it may just become feast or famine. And these two storms this week are exposing it nicely. 40+years ago if we had two sub 980 low's in a week, with a track like that, we'd be buried.

Rather impressive and dangerous cold out west. Red Deer, AB (in between Calgary/Edmonton) forecasted to drop to -50F over the next 2 nights which is only a degree or two away from the all-time Jan record low of -52F. Records go back to 1904 there. Let's see if they break it. Hoping it moves east and helps increase all of our snow chances. Two sub 980 low's cutting through the lakes this week, which in an ideal world would be amazing for us, but it's been way too warm. We got 2" with the first storm followed by an inch of rain and maybe another 4" tomorrow then rain showers lol. This pattern blows.

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@mississaugasnow I looked at the records to rank the snowiest month's on record in Toronto. I used North York since YYZ sucks. North York only has records going back to 1995 so the rankings are a combination of YYZ (pre 1997) and North York (post 1997). I filtered out any snowy month pre 1997 as I was only focused on the rankings for the last 20-30 years. So the rankings are from 1938-2023. Note: If we were to hypothetically include all Toronto records that go back to 1840, then Mar 1870 takes the cake for the snowiest month on record, by far. A staggering 62" in one month lol. We can appreciate the fact that we've experienced the snowiest Jan (x2), Feb (x2), and Mar (x2) on record. Dec up there as well with 3 top 6, but Dec 1951 takes the cake with 34.1" (which btw was a moderate Nino).

About 1.5-2" so far. Still snowing lightly but temperatures rising fast and up to 33 now. Stat pad lol.

Might be another thread the needle event. With the marginal temperatures, it won't be anything crazy but should push Toronto above 30cm for the season. Yeah last thing I want is bare ground and extreme cold like how Jan 2015 was. Here's a list of Toronto's biggest snowstorms since 1995. I used North York cause YYZ is a joke. It sucks Environment Canada has gotten rid of so many reporting stations over the years meanwhile our American counterparts have a station in every county lol. I didn't know how to make the image smaller, my bad lol.

Interesting. I think the rapid warming coincides well with the PDO phase. I believe the PDO plays a huge role in temperature variations across western NA. The 2015 super Nino may have been the tipping point that may have played a role in the WPAC warm pool. Time will tell if the current Nino or a strong Nina can reverse the warming. We haven't had a strong Nina since 2010-11 (as per ONI) despite experiencing a multi-year Nina. Although Mar 2012 was exceptional, I'm not too strung up about it. We've had exceptionally warm Marches before. Mar 1945 and 1946 are key examples that come to mind.

I think @michsnowfreak would go nuts if he experienced 4 of the top 5 least snowiest winters on record in a period of 10 years like we did in Toronto from 2006-2016. And if so, he can pull out any historic stat but I know there's nothing as unprecedented as experiencing 4 futility winters in 10 years. That being said, February's are not as favorable for snow for our region as January is in El Nino's, especially strong El Nino's. But thing's can always change. Like how rare it is to get two sub 980 Low's in 4 days that both end up being cutters in an El Nino.

Been snowing here since the morning. Almost an inch so far. Heavier rates moving in now with temperatures steady around the freezing mark. It'll likely remain as snow for the next few hours before a quick transition to heavy rain.

You're right. The last few winters, although they've been above normal, we haven't been able to keep a snowpack because it's been so warm. And this winter so far is no exception. Last winter and 2019-20 are prime candidates. 21-22 was a solid A winter in my opinion. Jan 22 storm dropped a good 40-60cm (16-24") across the entire GTA. The weekend storm has a lot of moving parts and variables so there's still time left for it to change. Should be a nice cold outbreak after the storm. But it may dry out for some time afterwards.

That explains why we had crazy wildfires over Canada this year and the numerous smoke days for us further south. I think at one point NYC was shrouded in smoke. That graph is pretty intriguing to me though. Obviously 2023 stands out like a sore thumb. But the downward trend in temperatures across Canada from 1942 to 1978 and the upward trend from 1978-1998 before it flatlined from 1998-present coincides well with the PDO phase. I'm surprised we didn't observe a similar downward trend in this current -PDO phase. I guess time will tell if the WPAC warm pool is transient or permanent. It's certainly been playing a role in the influx of warmer winters for us. When did it really start?

2 posts must be a troll or Alek's evil twin.

We still got lots of time left. YYZ at 6.9" as of yesterday. Below normal, yes, but that's to be expected in strong El Nino's. But not all strong El Nino's are the same. We've been on a good run since 2017-18 with every winter above average and 21-22 being a top 10 snowy winter. A good turnaround from the preceding 11 years where we experienced 4 of the least 5 snowiest winters on record. Those were some brutal years man.

For us bit further east especially eastern Ohio and further NE, some of our biggest storms are Gulf Lows or storms that track west of the Apps, i.e., Jan 22 or Mar 08.

Although temperatures will be marginal, the leading precip wave will be robust, which will keep thermals cool enough for 2-4" across the GTA, away from the lake, before it changes over to rain tomorrow.

That's a massive Aleutian ridge, wish it were a bit further east though. A 500mb pattern like that would probably mean a lot of clippers.

I agree. The biggest warming we've seen in winter is in December. It would be nice to get a string of cold Decembers (i.e., Dec 2007-Dec 2010) again but who knows. La Nina Decembers are typically cold and neither of the last 3 were cold lol. But just like you I'm a big winter enthusiast. However, I don't care much about Oct/Nov or mid-late March/April snow as much as I do about peak winter snow/cold. Anything outside of DJF until mid March is nothing more than a stat pad as it melts so quick because the climo doesn't support it. So to go an entire winter month without any snow/cold sucks. But you're right how we don't need frigid arctic air to get snow across our region. 2019-20 or even last winter are a good representation of that. We can still get snow with marginal temperatures. That's how we ended up getting 60" last winter here in Toronto.

Yes I agree, some El nino's can be warm in Canada and some exceptionally cold. But right now most major cities are devoid of any cold. Most places in our "source region" across the Prairies, Northern ON, etc. have been running near or above freezing for the entire month and forecasted to remain that way for the next 5-10 days too. Which is way above average. There's zero snow out there too. Not even 2015 was this warm. Dec 1997 is probably the most comparable month to this year out west and across Canada. No other year comes close.

Going to be tough to get any sustained cold/snow out east until Canada doesn't cool down and build up snow cover. December 2006, as an example, was much colder across the entire "source region". And that winter didn't really get started out east until mid-late January 2007. Even Dec 2015 got colder by mid December out west. But current forecast keeps the entire west near/above freezing until the end of the month which is not good. Let's see if we experience a potential pattern change by New years and beyond. But the models continue to pushback the cold and I suspect they will continue to do so until the west cools downs. I don't think any of us will see any sustained winter until mid/late Jan - at least.