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I don't know why he is worrying about the best case scenario

Dont be a wimp. Act like you've been there before. You're better than this.

persistence seasonal forecasting isn't the worst way for us lol. It pretty much works every summer to ignore all data and just go above normal. But I think sometimes we all forget it can snow here. I thought the back to back 4"ers in January were pretty cool. We just need to be able to be generate one other snowy period. A couple 1-3" events for me and one 4-8" and all the sudden I'm nearing a 20" winter. And you quite a bit more. getting a december snow would be nice, but it's just too elusive these days to expect anything

I was really tempted to just say it would be a hot winter lol and present no data. But I guess Jason wanted something more I use analogs pretty loosely. I will say they were grouped very close together for Feb. All 4 were below normal vs 91-2020 norms. Feb 2006 would be a -1.4 today but it was slightly above norm at the time. So I'm curious if I stumbled on to something there. as far as snow, maybe bullish vs conventional wisdom? I think I referenced 2018-19 (19" imby) and 2021-22 (15" imby) as benchmarks. It's not like we have to go back to the pleistocine era to find a half decent above median winter. Of course it could totally shit the bed and not a single person would be surprised lol, but doesn't look like a total dud to me

we all know the old saying - "as Ulon Bator goes so goes DCA"

Nov/Dec have been tough going lately here in UHI hell. They used to be more exciting. Here are my last five 1"+ events in Nov/Dec in reverse chron. That's right. Five early season 1" events in 14 years. Of course some of my 0.25"'s might have been 3-6" storms for Carroll/Jeff/Fred It would be nice to chase something even if it's just 1-3" for the city 12/16/20 - 1.0" 11/15/18 - 2.0" 12/9/17 - 2.25" 12/8/13 - 1.0" 12/16/10: 1.5"

BWI: 17.1" DCA: 12.2" IAD: 20.3" RIC: 9.8" Tiebreaker (LYH): 18.3"

my total uneducated guess - there are still some robust cyclical/decadal global patterns that are not as influenced by climate change as others and/or are more influenced by climate change but in a way that can occasionally correlate with potentially good winter patterns. eg, 80 degrees in anchorage and baffin island on January 15th with 594dm omega blocks and 113 degree ocean temps in the Atlantic (all hyperbole of course) - which is more likely to mix here and more likely to not be able to access siberian airmasses, but still have an elevated chance of something stupid happening like a cutoff over the TN valley that stalls and gives the burbs 18-24". tl;dr - I think DCA will have a 35"+ winter over the next 5 years and at least one -7 or colder winter month, and IAD will have an 18"+ event. Problem is the other 4 years lol. DCA 2024-25: +5, 3.1" 2025-26: +2, 6.3" 2026-27: -2, 38.4" 2027-28: +4, 1.8" 2028-29: +1, 8.7" I guess we take? Do we have a choice?

It is, but I'm trolling them. I know it isnt obvious looking at the post, but all the winters mentioned were awful for Boston. And in Nov-Dec 73 they were shut out. Silly inside jokey stuff that a handful of posters there will get. We've been on these forums for 25 years now. We have to keep it fun, especially now that it no longer snows in DC.

Bust

I remember 07-08 up there. SWFE for days and days I've been looking at specific Nov-Dec analogs, and I think I like Nov-Dec 1973 the best. Pretty decent in DC. Not sure how you all fared.

My top analogs for 2024-2025. Mixed bag for DC. I think Boston did pretty well during these winters. Good luck guys. 36-37, 79-80, 88-89, 01-02, 11-12

49/39 here at midnight, h*****. Love the chilly airmass. I still haven't turned my heat on. I did put on a hoodie this morning, but felt ashamed.

Looks like August will finish -0.1 so June +3.4 July +2.7 August -0.1 overall +2 3rd hottest summer on record behind 2010 and 2011

what did HM predict?