Solak

This will be one of the things we want to keep an eye on (pardon the pun) Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10 Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W Moving: W at 13 mph Min pressure: 962 mb Max sustained: 115 mph

WeatherMatrix 1 min · Latest Hurricane #Florence storm surge forecast approaching 15 feet on shore, 10-13 feet up the rivers. This will change if track changes. http://cera.coastalrisk.live

@SamWalkerOBX 6m6 minutes ago BREAKING NEWS: Mandatory evacuation of Hatteras Island, visitors and residents, beginning at 12pm today. #Florence

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 17m17 minutes ago The 18z late dynamical models show SE NC as the highest threat with a track deep inland. #Florence

Possibly getting to 150mph??? FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 24.4N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.6N 58.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.1N 60.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.9N 63.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 30.3N 72.6W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 33.5N 77.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 35.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND

5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9 Location: 24.4°N 57.0°W Moving: W at 7 mph Min pressure: 975 mb Max sustained: 85 mph

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 12m12 minutes ago The risk of prolonged extremely heavy rainfall with #Florence is increasing. Remember that flooding is a major cause of inland deaths with tropical cyclones. Get prepared now for the potential for torrential rains! #ncwx

Full run of the Euro... That would make for a very long week of weather with the storm doubling back on it's track. Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago The 12z ECMWF track. #Florence

12z GFS gives this location (KJNX) 0.07" from Wednesday through the duration of the storm. Really hard to buy into that.

11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 Location: 24.4°N 56.3°W Moving: W at 6 mph Min pressure: 984 mb Max sustained: 75 mph

Sunday morning recon - first pass.

"Very windy" has been added to the local NWS forecast for Fri/Sat. Haven't seen that in a while. Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

That 96 over my house... that's the temp and not wind speed, right?

Another thing to keep in mind... with the incoming/stalling front dropping down from VA, there's a 30%-50% chance of showers/storms all week leading up to the potential landfall. Ground might be at least wet, possibly saturated before any effects of Florence show up.

Recon is in the outer fringes of Florence now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Or more recently, Dennis/Floyd in 99

Then there's this potential fly in the ointment. Brad Panovich‏Verified account @wxbrad 4m4 minutes ago I shouldn't have talked about that thing earlier. ughhh!

Oh well, it felt good on paper 360 Thu 09/20 12Z 74 ° 63 °

06z GFS long range tosses a bone... 348 Wed 09/19 18Z 72 ° 49 °

What are the chances of the event being over before the snow hole fills in?

Ditto!

Most of us have our location in our profile - under our avatar.

RAH Disco The next s/w projected to lift newd out of the l/w trough late Thursday, crossing our region by Fri morning. After the relative lull in precip Thursday, expect areas of precip to regenerate across our region, especially overnight Thu night into early Fri. Precip will initially start out as rain, but could see a transition to a rain/snow mix after midnight over the NW Piedmont as the column aloft continues to cool, and lift becomes stronger in the favored dendrite growth zone. Where heavier precip rates occur, could see a brief burst of snow, though warm ground temperatures will cause any snow that accumulates to quickly melt. Appears the rain/snow mix will remain confined primarily across the NW Piedmont through mid morning Friday, afterwhich the boundary layer may warm enough to cause the mixture to go back to all rain. As night approaches Friday, and the s/w begins to exit our region, another surge of low level cold air will overtake the region. This will lead to a rain/snow mix to overspread central NC Friday night, with the precip ending as a little light snow across the Piedmont. Precip rates at this time appear too light and the ground temperatures relatively too warm to support nothing more than a dusting, if that. Across the coastal plain, light rain may end as a rain/snow mix late Friday night. High temps Friday will only warm to near 40-lower 40s. It's possible some locations across the Piedmont may stay in the 30s.