Solak

2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 30.4°N 71.8°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

This was in the RAH mid-morning discussion. Latest upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than forecast. This strengthening ridge is separated from an even stronger sub-tropical ridge situated several hundred miles n of Bermuda, by a tropopause-level trough axis stretching from about 100 miles east of HSE sswwd to an embedded circulation 200 miles east of JAX, sswd to another circulation centered about 150 miles north of the Yucatan. The presence of both that trough axis, and the developing/expanding ridge over the sern US, will ultimately serve to slow/halt the nwwd progress of powerful Hurricane Florence, particularly by Thu, when the anomalously strong ridge n of Bermuda weakens and drifts swwd.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 29.4°N 70.7°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 943 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

Everything you need to know here. this is this morning's NWS Raleigh briefing. https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

The NHC doesn't change the track/cone on the intermediate advisories. The only thing different is the 8PM location and winds. New track will come out with the full advisory at 11PM.

From the 5:00PM disco: The 12Z GFS model made a significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east, and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72 hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and regional models are indicating that the steering currents will collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S. coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite uncertain.

5:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11 Location: 27.5°N 67.1°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 945 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Very possible scenario.

Wind field is expanding. Hurricane-force winds have expanded outward and now extend up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds have also expanded and now extend outward up to 170 miles (280 km) from the center.

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago 12z GFS rainfall through 8am, Saturday 32 inches just north of Cape Fear #Florence

NWS Newport/Morehead‏Verified account @NWSMoreheadCity 15m15 minutes ago Based on the current track of #Florence, devastating wind gusts well over 100 mph are possible across coastal sections of southern ENC. Florence will be a major hurricane at landfall, it is urgent that you make proper preparations and follow all evacuation orders. #ncwx

Well, it sure is different waking up under a Tropical Storm Watch this far inland. NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 47m47 minutes ago For the first time, NWS Raleigh has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of it's forecast area. Previously, we issued Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings. Now our Hurricane Watches and Tropical Storm Watches will match the same products issued at the coast. #ncwx

Hope this gets resolved real soon!!! ational Weather Service RALEIGH NC 730 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 ...NOAA Weather Radio stations off the air... The following NOAA Weather Radio stations serving portions of central North Carolina are currently off the air due to a communications line problem. WWF-60, located at Buck Mountain and serving the southern Piedmont on 162.425 MHZ. WNG-597, located in Ellerbe and serving the southern Piedmont, western Sandhills, and northeastern South Carolina on 162.400 MHZ. WNG-706, located in Garner and serving the eastern Piedmont and central coastal plain on 162.450 MHZ. WXL-59, located in Tarboro and serving the northern and central coastal plain on 162.475 MHZ. WXL-42, located in Greensboro and serving northwest North Carolina and adjacent Virginia counties on 162.400 MHZ. Technicians responsible for repair have been notified and are working to resolve the problem. We regret any inconvenience this may cause.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 25.4N 61.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 26.0N 63.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 27.0N 66.2W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 28.6N 69.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 30.4N 72.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 77.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 35.6N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 15/1800Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

Good answer, Downeast. I'm sure you've seen that from previous storms. I've seen it to some extent when I lived in KDH and had the sounds back up, then have to deal with the return flow with the backside winds.

One major takeaway from the 5PM discussion. None of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity, and this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment, and even warmer waters over the next 36 hours. Thus, the intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close to category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind shear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of eyewall cycles. While the intensity forecast shows some weakening of the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to grow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind threats. The bottom line is that there is high confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.

5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10 Location: 25.4°N 61.1°W Moving: WNW at 13 mph Min pressure: 939 mb Max sustained: 140 mph

Recon: 940mb

@wcnc 4m4 minutes ago HURRICANE FLORENCE: Flushing phase of lane reversal will begin at 8 a.m. tomorrow in Columbia as SCDOT prepares to reverse lanes of I-26 between Columbia and Charleston. They will flush from Columbia to the I-526 interchange in Charleston.

Pressure 942.8

NWS Newport/Morehead‏Verified account @NWSMoreheadCity 2m2 minutes ago #FlorencUpdate: Hurricane Florence is now a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph. Minimum pressure is 946 mb.

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago Well those of us hoping the GFS would come into agreement with the other guidance may have to wait another cycle. The 12z through 90 hours has it stalled just offshore of Hatteras #Florence Again just what the model shows.

Pressure was 962mb at 11:00. Recon just hit the eye... 945mb!

09.10.2018 Brunswick County has issued a mandatory evacuation for residents in unincorporated areas who live in low-lying and flood-prone areas or substandard or mobile homes, beginning at daylight (7 a.m.) Tuesday.