Solak

@CarolinaScanner 1m1 minute ago NC: Lee & Harnett Counties - Reported tornado touchdowns. Rescues being performed.

Nate Johnson‏Verified account @nsj 2m2 minutes ago 6:50pm: Debris signature on radar / suggests tornado was/is on the ground and enough to kick up debris. Would be rain-wrapped. Go inside and get low!

At 645 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southwest of Fuquay-Varina, or 10 miles northwest of Lillington, moving northeast at 30 mph.

After the current band of storms passes through... This HWO is for most of the RAH forecast area. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. There is a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through early evening. The primary severe weather threat will be locally strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail. A weak tornado cannot be ruled out. A cold front approaching from the west late Sunday into Sunday night will be accompanied by a band of thunderstorms, some of which may be severe. The main severe weather threats will be damaging wind gusts, large hail and possibly a weak tornado.

Under our first severe warning of the year. Hearing some boomers out there. Hard to believe that 6 days ago it was only 37 degrees out! 81/64 currently.

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 2m2 minutes ago Latest update from @NWSSPC has upgraded portions of our forecast area (including the #Triad of #NCwx) to an ENHANCED RISK (3 of 5) for Severe Weather this evening. The forecast on timing remains the same, but the risk for damaging straight-line winds is increasing.

RAH: 10:50AM Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus convection and enhance low level shear/helicity.

NWS Eastern Region‏Verified account @NWSEastern 53s54 seconds ago Potential for severe thunderstorms today & tonight across parts of the Southeast & southern mid Atlantic regions. Damaging wind gusts % large hail are the primary threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible, as well as torrential downpours producing localized flooding.

First Hummingbird of 2019 at the feeder today!

FWIW--- Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 16m16 minutes ago The new FV3-GFS is performing better than GFS-operational in general but both systems have had a rough last 10-days. These periods of poor skill are called "drop outs" or more plainly "busts" ECMWF dipped as well but that's relative to its higher level of skill.

Looks pretty dry in the SE for the next week.

Welcome to DST, that time of year when the models runs are an hour different for the next 7+ months

Interesting temperature outlook: NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 1m1 minute ago Late March and early April we anticipate increased odds of below-normal temperatures through much of the Great Plains and the Mississippi Valley, while most other parts of the U.S. are favored to be warmer than normal. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ …

Love all the current snow/sleet observations in the mid-long term thread.

RAH late morning update. At the same time, a low amplitude perturbation -- and saturation/ precipitation aloft-- will migrate through the base of an ern CONUS trough, and into the Carolinas overnight-early Tue. The foregoing lower level cloudiness may allow for more of that precipitation aloft, related to the upr perturbation, to reach the surface over SC and srn/sern NC; and we have introduced a larger area of light measurable precipitation from the srn Piedmont to the Sandhills and srn and cntl Coastal Plain for late tonight-early Tue to account for that increasing probability. A marginally above freezing boundary layer will likely cause any snow to melt as it falls, though if rates are high enough for 2-3 hrs, that shallow above freezing could be melted out and allow for a very light dusting to occur primarily along and southeast of a line from Fayetteville to Goldsboro (ie. mainly Sampson Co.). More on this potential this afternoon...

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 15m15 minutes ago 12z NAM-3km showing a period of snow Tuesday morning in interior SE NC. I dont expect any accumulation outside of MAYBE a dusting on elevated surface/grassy areas.

15 hours without a post in the SE Forum is pretty telling... unless everyone is on double secret probation or something.

RAH this afternoon: Our weather gets more interesting as the polar low drifts across S Ontario/S Quebec, with reloading energy plunging down into the Great Lakes region early next week. The surface cold front passage late Sat night into early Sun morning will bring in much colder air and set the stage for potential heavy and perhaps non-liquid precip as it hangs up just to our SE with low pressure tracking along it. Highest pops are most likely to occur late Sun through Mon morning, with passage of the surface low just to our S and SE, beneath a potent upper divergence maximum. It's too early to determine the precise frontal position and low track and how much cold air will get into the area, but models appear to be trending wetter and further N, suggesting that any potential for wintry precip will likely be confined to the NW Piedmont. That said, however, we could still see some light wraparound snow on the backside of the departing low late Mon, perhaps lingering into Mon night or Tue. Will have a chance of rain or snow in the far NW Sun night into Mon for now. Expect temps to be below normal Sun and much below normal (highs in the 40s) Mon and Tue. -GIH

Just saw that too. Here's the NWS memo. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-12gfsv15.pdf

RAH this morning: Late week, all major models tend to slide a backdoor cold front through the area initiating CAD type conditions late Thursday into Friday morning as a SFC coastal low begins to develop to our southeast. These features will be worth watching closely, as some sort of wintry mix may be possible assuming a strong enough CAD and a close tracking Miller-A or Miller A/B style pattern sets up. Temps should remain seasonable all week, with highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s while lows dip into the 30s/low 40s.

Well, the Daytona 500 is finally over. Now the NASCAR season can begin!

RAH Friday afternoon still hints at the slight possibility of a mix Tuesday night. In general, this pattern will favor high-chance and even likely PoPs during much of the long term period, with QPF estimates of 1-3 inches of rain from Sun through Fri. The best chance for any pause in this wet pattern may be late Monday into early Tuesday as we briefly see some drying in the wake of early Monday's cold fropa. Otherwise, temps should be warm enough this entire period to preclude any P-type concerns other than rain, except for a "very brief" period Tuesday night when forecast soundings over our western Piedmont counties suggest it may be barely cold enough for a "very brief" period of wintry mix with the rain. Of course we'll be evaluating that potential during the coming days, but for now, expecting most if not all rain as p-type during this time.

If you add up all the percentages of rain for the next week, we have like a 740% chance of rain!!!

RAH this afternoon - 2/12/19 Monday looks to be dry as strong continental high pressure moves across the upper Midwest and ridges in from the north with temperatures near normal. This high will slide into a better position for classic/hybrid damming by Tuesday morning as isentropic lift begins and a feed of moisture originating from the Gulf of Mexico advects into the western Piedmont. With the cold air in place, winter P-types could become a problem early Tuesday in the climatologically favored areas. Stay tuned.

That setup above reminds me of some of the great snowstorms/Nor'Easters we used to get on the Outer Banks in the 70's and 80's.