Solak

Stronger, and slowing down. 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W Moving: W at 8 mph Min pressure: 945 mb Max sustained: 150 mph

CAT 4, 130mph at 8:30PM

Interesting to see Brad step out of his usual conservative approach... Brad Panovich @wxbrad · 1m This morning the guidance is really coming into consensus and honestly the last several runs for a significant impact on Florida from #Dorian. Rapid intensification is possible to Cat 4.

Have a great trip!

5PM update keeps Dorian a high end TS after the islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

There's official forecasts, spaghetti models, and then, there's this nonsense... (A previous tweet, since deleted, compared Dorian to the track of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane) This one isn't much better. Rep. Pete Olson @RepPeteOlson START WATCHING & PLANNING NOW!!!Tropical Storm Dorian has formed with 60mph winds. Hurricane in 4 days. Following similar path as some of our worst hurricanes - Florida Straits & long run over strengthening warm Gulf water. Changes in path HIGHLY likely. @NWSNHC @NWSHouston

1.16" Saturday.

Dorian SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.7N 49.1W ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF BARBADOS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

85 in Franklin, NC. Crazy cold pocket to the East of there. https://climate.ncsu.edu/map/

I'd say last night was a major forecast bust around here. Picked up a just a trace overnight. Got nothing from that once impressive line of storms. They've already lowered today's chances from 70% (7AM) to 50% (9AM).

I was skeptical of the 1"-2" they were calling for overnight. I think the updated 3/4" to 1" now predicted is still being overly generous. Time will tell.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT National Weather Service RALEIGH NC 416 PM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 ...Supplemental Low Elevation Angle to be Implemented on the KRAX WSR-88D Radar on or about August 26, 2019... The Raleigh NC Weather Forecast Office will implement a supplemental low elevation angle of +0.2 degrees to its KRAX WSR-88D Radar on or about August 26, 2019. This angle is in addition to the standard +0.5 degree angle and will be included in all Volume Coverage Patterns (VCPs). https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSRAH&e=201908232016

Some models want to ramp it up pretty quickly!

One more round of possible severe before the cooldown.

And the crazy 06zNAM 3.83" and afternoon highs in the 60's on Saturday with a dry Sunday. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

For RAH... 00z GFS 0.76" --- dry Sunday 06z GFS 2.32" --- wet Sunday. 00z rebounds in to the low 80's on Sunday 06z keeps it in the low 70's.

Was watching that line of storms last night as it approached the area. Like most strong clusters moving out of the Piedmont, the line weakened considerably, and radar returns made it look like we'd either get nothing, or maybe a couple light showers. As it moved through the Wake/JoCo line, it exploded and slowed down considerably. Kudos to the SPC for suggesting exactly what could happen in an evening update. " Multicell storms are expected to continue through central NC next couple hours and might eventually interact with the seabreeze which could support brief intensification, before subsequently diminishing as they continue into eastern NC." We ended up with exactly 1 inch of much needed rain.

0.00" yesterday. Started the morning off at 77 degrees at 6:00AM today.

Meanwhile - rinse and repeat

The NHC upgraded it to TS Chantal last night. 40mph

Well, it's not the 70's, but it's also not the 90's. High temperatures should remain near normal on Friday before dropping considerably the remainder of the period thanks to a plethora of cloud cover and the presence of ongoing showers/storms. Expect afternoon temperatures to meander within the low to mid 80s, with lows dipping into the low to middle 60s during the overnight hours. Some hints at a temperature increase as the front attempts to return north early next week, plausibly allowing central NC to return back into the warm sector.