hooralph

I'm tracking this like "ha ha.. wow... November hurricane." And then I remembered I'm supposed to be in Orlando Tue-Thu next week...

Been staring at this live cam in Punta Gorda. Per the Sea Level Rise Viewer, that location gets wet with about 4' of rise; looks like it's about 3' up the wall right now.

Not a surprise, but just seeing now that per the 11 AM update Port Charlotte is now ground zero for surge

I just checked. Of the more than 1400 posts in the main thread, there is one use of the word "biblical" and it was in reference to a model run. Otherwise, the thread is full of people assessing actual data and science and comparing to past circumstances and situations. You are processing this through a filter of relativist, denialist bullshit, the same shit that has people tuning out government warnings and staying in harms way. Can you name one storm that posed a greater surge threat to the stretch of coast from Tampa to Port Charlotte and explain why? Otherwise, what people are talking about is actual science.

Tornado warnings already on their doorstep. I think it's too late.

Oh they are squarely in A. Again, right on the water. This is the map of their location (red dot) with a 6' surge, which supports their experience that they are on "higher ground" as 4-5' surges have not reached them. At 7 feet their house is wet and it's off to the roof from there... "Best case" scenario is it's "only" an 8' surge and they only take on about a foot of water but damage to their entire area will be substantial. Obviously a 12' surge will render the entire area uninhabitable.

I can't speak to all the individual choices that go into not evacuating, but in the case of my in-laws (on a canal in Port Charlotte), it is a toxic stew of nihilism/fatalism, MAGA-disenchantment with "experts" and just bad info or rationalizing based on past experience. My MIL last night said "It's a wait and see game as to where it makes landfall. Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens." With Helene, the amount of people (at least per social media) in Appalachia who were "not expecting" to be impacted that way was an alarm bell that says how people are getting critical information is getting distorted by cord cutting and reliance on social media.

My in-laws at this red dot location in Charlotte Harbor have dug their heels in will not be leaving. The have a false sense of security because the slight elevation of their side of the street has kept them dry in 5-6" surges. At 7, the water is at their door. My last plea to move was met with this: "Actually it would be better if it lands closer to us because a lot less surge if that happens"

Charlotte Harbor up to 8-12'

I hate to go all IMBY (or specifically in-laws back yard), but given that the track is tucked in just S of TB, does the surge forecast seem shifted a little too far north here? Specifically I am wondering about Port Charlotte. With an expanding wind field, how far down would the max surge extend? (and again, wouldn't it extend further S than N?)

This is a fantastic tool. Using it to look at the surge impact in port charlotte, where my father in law who lives on a canal refuses to evacuate. Playing with the levels I can see how 4-5’ (seen in Ian and Helene) has not reached his house. But at 6 it reaches him. https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/6/-9139452.470242618/3119591.722667004/14/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

Amazing amount of information here. https://www.reddit.com/r/asheville/ - you can really see the community rallying to help, but yes, it is dire. But it's clear there is very little communication, so you can reasonably hope he simply doesn't have a way to call.

Charlotte Country (Port Charlotte) has already ordered evacuations. Overreaction? Proper reaction?

We're supposed to fly out of Halifax on Saturday afternoon (after a 3.5 hour drive from PEI). Safe to say this snuck up on us. Trying to figure out if we need to try to proactively change it.

Awesome lighting and thunder. A summer classic.