SBUWX23
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Everything posted by SBUWX23
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Are you really gonna argue between a trace and a few tenths? -
Thought there was 0.2 on January 7th
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So the park is up to 2.3 on the season and that would exceed last seasons total?
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It's almost as if the subsidence we were dealing with helped get whatever snow was in the atmosphere down to the ground.
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The limited accumulation is a direct result of the sun being clearly visible during the snow and the relatively low rates. If this were a heavier snow I don't think it would have been a problem. Sun angle really isn't an issue. There have been several events where it's in the 60s the day before a good snow here that continued through the daytime in February.
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Finally noticing some snow sticking on more than just old snow and cold surfaces out here now eastern LI. Sun finally not shining through the clouds.
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Trough axis is again to far west.
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the issue is unless you are under heavy rates, the thin cloud layer has allowed the suns energy to warm the blacktops.
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Way more convective on LI than I would have imagined.
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not that far. you can walk that to see the snow
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Do we ever see heat anomalies 40 to 50 above normal? We do seem to see those types of cold anomalies in the US in recent years...
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Models do not show flurries because that is not accumulated precip. Model soundings have had hints at flurries today for awhile.
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im sure you will be saying beautiful light snow tomorrow everything covered.
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It's better than it's previous runs but it's not to the level of the 12km nam.
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The nam looks more organized with the weak low associated with the shortwave as it reaches the coast Friday morning. 500mb also looks better.
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Always overdone. Arw members notoriously too high. They skew the mean.
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Still would like to see a bump north too
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Do you like snow? Seems like you are rooting for the drier models.
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You can see where there may be problems in CT, and any shift south that could reach LI too. It's a fine line. Never a fan of inverted troughs
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18z HRRR out through 48 hours looks decent, and yes I am aware of its unreliability beyond 18 hours.
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youll prob end up better there anyway as its colder up there.
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Yep, it was too dry with the last event too. I do believe the NAM was more on target and actually had the right idea overall as the even drew closer. I know there were some concerns that models were overdone qpf wife, but we had a good bit of rain out here and the NAM really handled the fact there was gonna be ZR well. Hopefully we can narrow down things on Thursday.
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doesnt mean its right. its not the gospel model when it comes to smaller details like what we are looking for with this event.
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The 12z NAM has about 0.3 liquid around the city. The nam is a bit noisy with the QPF owing likely to the localized banding potential with the inverted trough.
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thats nyc all the time
