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SBUWX23

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by SBUWX23

  1. SBUWX23
    not really, members look similar overall to previous runs. this is based on track and other fields, not 10:1 snow maps and mean snow map.
  2. SBUWX23
    weenies will be surprised at how it will struggle to snow when a 979mb low is 50 miles south of the coast.
  3. SBUWX23
    Snow may be a thing of the past for NYC and Long Island. Category 6 storms but no snow.
  4. SBUWX23
    Not sure what's going on there but the point click ranges seem broader then the maps do.
  5. SBUWX23
    Their deterministic forecast on the snow forecast map is only around 1.5 near you. The ranges in the point and click seem broader than the maps.
  6. SBUWX23
    it looks like its for the NW interior not all of NE NJ
  7. SBUWX23
    it is suppressed with everything.
  8. SBUWX23
    Edit nvm I see it above!
  9. SBUWX23
    What's the surface look like?
  10. SBUWX23
    It's better to put out the worst case forecast 3.5 days out?
  11. SBUWX23
    vertically stacked lows are decaying and do not produce the same dynamics. you want the mid level loves to pass to your south.
  12. SBUWX23
    all you need is a slight shift north and it is 95 percent rain for the coast. Also its not gonna stick with temps above freezing during daytime Tuesday. Chances are very slim at the coast. Get out, enjoy life.
  13. SBUWX23
    This is usually a red flag because this can be very thread the needle when your airmass is marginal at best. Dynamics can only do so much. Case in point a few weeks back when even the interior struggled to get any snow.
  14. SBUWX23
    CMC is not north and is not anywhere near the GFS aloft.
  15. SBUWX23
    The 13th
  16. SBUWX23
    The GFS continues to show less phasing and less favorable northern and southern stream spacing to lift the low further north like earlier runs. We should not be looking at snow clown maps now as they are just not good but rather what is going on aloft. Will see what the other guidance has, but the GFS may not be completely wrong with the scraper for us. Again i would not put stock in its ptype or snow amount at all. It has a cold bias
  17. SBUWX23
    Not saying I think it's gonna snow. My point is more I don't trust anything coming out of the models right a week out. It still may end up dry or just a little rain.
  18. SBUWX23
    Euro is always right too
  19. SBUWX23
    Did see a robin on Saturday
  20. SBUWX23
    The new normal. Wet dry periods.
  21. SBUWX23
    Makes no sense in this pattern and it's too warm anyway at the surface.
  22. SBUWX23
    Not on Long Island at least
  23. SBUWX23
    Don't think we are getting that warm. Maybe 50?
  24. SBUWX23
    0.3 vs a trace is not a big dropoff.
  25. SBUWX23
    They had several hours of snowfall with visibility around 2 miles. 5 miles can be a big difference.
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