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SBUWX23

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by SBUWX23

  1. SBUWX23
    Makes no sense why N PA has more snow on this map then areas near the strongest frontogenesis
  2. SBUWX23
    Oh well. It's over then. Good night.
  3. SBUWX23
    Can you share what that means?
  4. SBUWX23
    This is just hysterical
  5. SBUWX23
    temps may be just above freezing initially but Tds in the teens that will drop down once steady snow begins.
  6. SBUWX23
  7. SBUWX23
    This isnt an IMBY post but I feel like there is room on the NAM for a bit more of a push north too.
  8. SBUWX23
    what happenened?
  9. SBUWX23
    rgem is not that far off though. euro is not completely on its own.
  10. SBUWX23
    10m winds really are not N though. they are very weak. The issue is the energy is more robust on previous RGEM, Euro runs leading to a more organized low and a bit further north. New NAMs and FV3 are weaker overall and less precip on N side.
  11. SBUWX23
    this is just one variation in CNJ, but NAM3k is showing it above the dendritic growth zone
  12. SBUWX23
    try to look where omega is located, and see if it lines up with the -12 to -18 zone in the profile and it is saturated. That is also one piece of the puzzle. Snow habit is diverse, but that is one way to get an idea.
  13. SBUWX23
    the big unknown is if snow growth isnt the best, if you are not dendrites the habit could lower your ratio even its cold. Temperature is only one part of the equation.
  14. SBUWX23
    The nam can easily shift back north. Rgem is and it's consistent with its previous run
  15. SBUWX23
    Wanna see this continue in next several runs. It's been back and forth but would be cool if we can get a bump in qpf too
  16. SBUWX23
    Seems like the type of system that would trend north down to the wire. Just speculating there though and by no means saying it will happen. Just feel like I've seen northern stream dominant lows shift north frequently.
  17. SBUWX23
    Yep snow habit plays a key role in ratio. Cold is just one factor.
  18. SBUWX23
    What do you expect them to do when guidance is spread
  19. SBUWX23
    I'm seeing a lot of 30-32. I'd wanna see temps in the 20s for higher ratio.
  20. SBUWX23
    Be careful with just expecting high ratio snow. Yes it's colder aloft but surface temps are still not as cold as I feel needed for higher ratio. Id temper it a bit and say more 10-12:1
  21. SBUWX23
    This obviously includes snow from tomorrow night north of our area
  22. SBUWX23
    I know people around Islip. 4.3 seems right.
  23. SBUWX23
    Gefs probs are not too shabby for greater than an inch. Temper expectations.
  24. SBUWX23
    If we had been in the 20s that would not have happened. It's impressive enough that we had the cooling we did without the nice high to our north.
  25. SBUWX23
    The liquid equivalent out here was impressive in the 12-18z timeframe. Even here where it was 32-33, the temps and compaction were real. Probably would have had closer to 10 if not more but I'll settle with the half foot. Still a nice event.
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