Hvward

Razor thin margin for rain/snow on Tuesday around WNC. We've seen this before. These type setups have been known to produce 1"-2" surprise events for portions of WNC. Short range models should provide a much more clear picture over the next 36 hours.

Models don't even have a handle of what will happen on Monday Night/Tuesday. This could still produce some snow showers. As far as the storm to end the week next week, there are a ton of moving pieces. Does the Northern stream dip all the way to the Gulf or does it pop a low in the middle of the US and phase with the PV or will it dip under the Appalachians? Models are cutting it now, but this could easily trend back to a Gulf Low. I am looking forward to seeing the 12z Euro and what it does with the LP.

GEFS also hinting at snowfall for the Monday night and Tuesday timeframe. The models don't have a total grip on this pattern change, I could see a few sneaky events. Flurries might not stop for a while after they begin in the high elevations sometime Saturday. Fun times ahead, doesn't feel like we have seen a pattern like this in quite some time.

Here you go! Looking forward to this pattern change. At the least NWF areas should get hammered next Friday and Saturday. .

Excited to kick the season off! Hope everyone had a good Summer & Fall, model tracking season is back in full action!

Got my garden ready for the freeze! Hopefully my blueberries still produce this year!

Models trending towards a decent even here. Some surprises in store for sure imo. Here is my map.

About to board the plane and head back from Maui! Looks like a decent NWF on Sunday and into Monday. Decent dynamics here with the piece of energy enhancing the stream.

Looks like one of the best NWF we have seen in quite some time setting up on radar. I bet even Brevard and Hendersonville see NWFS. Grab a cold one this is going to be a fun night!

Snowing hard in Leicester, the ground is covered.

Here is my projected accumulation map. .

Yep 4-5 hours of heavy snow for most per 18z hi res nam on Friday evening for many of us.

I am thinking this NWF/Deformation feature could be very interesting. Good dynamics for a couple hours of heavy snow Friday night.

Long way to go, but Tuesday needs to be watched. NAM wants to give SW WNC their best snow of the year. Really hoping that happens for places like Franklin, Bryson City, Andrews, ect. Winter weather tracking continues!

Leicester Highway. .

Roads are covered with a light dusting of snow here In Leicester. Looks like a dangerous commute around Asheville this morning.

Don't look now, but 12z HRRR begins snow in Haywood Co around noon.

The devil is in the details with this one. Pull up a sounding, any sounding around WNC over the next 3 days and tell me that's not borderline snow. Skew-T says freezing drizzle best guess estimated precipitation with a column of air completely below freezing? Does the model not think the precipitation will push up into the dendritic growth area? Those 6000' peaks to Asheville's SW certain could help... Just because the precip maps and accumulation maps aren't showing the colors, doesn't mean that the atmosphere isn't ripe. Hell the 6z GFS has a snow sounding for tomorrow morning for most of you. The main takeaway is that the models are really struggling. They struggled like this in Dec 2017. That northern periphery of moisture was never really correctly modeled and finally it was assumed to be a nowcast event. I remember the GFS and Euro showing small stripes of snow over WNC and E TN a couple days out from the event and thinking they were warning shot. I think we are seeing something similar here, maybe on a less intense scale but today should be the day we see some type of movement in the models. I feel like we sit in a pretty good position.

Indeed and if you remember it speed up, that models shows Friday evening and we got hammered starting at 9am Friday morning.

12z GFS showing a saturated dendritic growth zone around WNC Thursday evening with temps in the upper 20's at the surface. I know its not showing up on the precipitation maps but that is very close to a snow sounding. Lets see if the Euro holds it ground, I bet it does.

Indeed. Someone has to say it, EE rule.

Euro ensemble has 23 members with a 6"+ event for KAVL. Looking for that to move a little higher over the next run or two.

Baroclinic zone sets up over WNC late Thursday night per NAM & RDPS. Thats a snow sounding to me. 1040mb+ high moves out of Plains with high pressure building in the South Atlantic will squeeze a moisture stream together over the South. Don't expect models to handle this one well.

This Friday/Saturday system/systems is sneaky, but I have seen us cash in from overrunning events i.e. Dec 2017. Waiting on the Euro but ill have a new update here in a little while.

Tracking snow with snow on the ground vibes this morning. Haven't felt that in a while.