Hvward

An interesting look going into Monday on both the ICON and GFS. Noticed several Euro ensemble members show that wave blossoming that moves in behind the NWF as well.

I didn’t feel it but I saw people commenting on his tweet that someone in Blowing Rock and someone in Franklin felt it.

HRRR with some nice upslope for the SW mountains early tomorrow morning. I am thinking Highlands could see 2-3” from this. This flow could also bring a dusting to an inch to the Asheville area tonight.

That flow from the ULL really creating some lift in the upper atmosphere. Models didn’t pick this up well at all. ICON was showing precip for tomorrow AM around Franklin and Highlands so I expect that to come to fruition as the ULL gets closer. Could have a surprise inch for many in the area.

GFS and Euro about 500 mile apart at 5h currently, So something has to give...

Looking at the threat for Friday night and into Saturday.. Several EPS members support the OP with the idea of a surface low cutting under the apps as a phase occurs in the upper levels. Where exactly that phase occurs is a big unknown. This past Euro run goes along with what the ICON has shown as well for the past several runs. Heavy precipitation falls into a close to frozen column, and in some areas dynamic cooling could keep the precip as snow. That might become a buzz word in the next couple of days if what the Euro shows is correct. Nonetheless glad to have a few things to track, its been a while..

I am still curious with the Tuesday threat. Would think that SW portions of a WNC could squeeze out a few flakes with this one.

That piece of energy continues to interest me as well.

Here is a shot of that shelf cloud as it came through Asheville from one of my live camera. I had a quick burst of sleet that coved my whole deck in Alexander. Also someone posted an awesome video of it to my Facebook page. https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2487781074825784&id=1376462082624361&_ft_=mf_story_key.2487781074825784%3Atop_level_post_id.2487781074825784%3Atl_objid.2487781074825784%3Acontent_owner_id_new.1376462082624361%3Aoriginal_content_id.2487614974842394%3Aoriginal_content_owner_id.1437009336%3Athrowback_story_fbid.2487781074825784%3Apage_id.1376462082624361%3Aphoto_id.10221954353514743%3Astory_location.4%3Aattached_story_attachment_style.video_inline%3Apage_insights.%7B%221376462082624361%22%3A%7B%22page_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22actor_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22dm%22%3A%7B%22isShare%22%3A1%2C%22originalPostOwnerID%22%3A2487614974842394%7D%2C%22psn%22%3A%22EntStatusCreationStory%22%2C%22post_context%22%3A%7B%22object_fbtype%22%3A266%2C%22publish_time%22%3A1578419424%2C%22story_name%22%3A%22EntStatusCreationStory%22%2C%22story_fbid%22%3A%5B2487781074825784%5D%7D%2C%22role%22%3A1%2C%22sl%22%3A4%2C%22targets%22%3A%5B%7B%22actor_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22page_id%22%3A1376462082624361%2C%22post_id%22%3A2487781074825784%2C%22role%22%3A1%2C%22share_id%22%3A0%7D%5D%7D%7D&__tn__=%2As%2As-R

Nam 3km shows that temps will be right Tuesday Morning for many around the area to see another shot of snow.

Several squall lines developing in ETN currently. Hopefully this one can give most of us at least snow showers. .

GFS & Euro both show some ULL action late Saturday night with snow showers around WNC.

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12z Euro with a good front end thump similar to yesterday. Let’s see how long it’s holds, I would much rather watch the long range Euro compared to the GFS. Anyways, I’ve been working on some topographic maps for the area for my website and figured I would share them with you guys to see if you had any corrections that I should make.

That would be 27” of snow for those counting all the inches we have missed..

Nam3km and Euro both showing a whole lot of rain for the Blue Ridge Escarpment through Tuesday AM. Wouldn’t be surprised to see flash flooding around the area. Euro shows 2.7” for Asheville! Then we go for a record high on Christmas!

Yeah not sure how you would fair, but the Balsams can get several inches from these type setups. Wish Mike was still around the board to give us some insight but I haven’t seen him post in a couple of years since he sold his piece of property that was at 6000’.

Sunday we might see a MikeGold special. Elevations above 5000’ could being as snow as precip moves in. Mike used to talk about these bombing lows and how they could produce some big totals on occasion in the SW Balsams. Would be interesting to see if this happens similar to how the Euro shows.

Wow things look different from yesterday.. we need that precip to move in quicker but doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. Such a waste of an amped up storm.

Umm so the 12z EPS has 4 members with 20”+ for KAVL... average is at 3” but that’s due to the big dogs skewing it.

Saturday and Sunday could have potential for WNC. Both ICON & CMC show at least a front end thump of snow.

12z CMC similar to the 12z ICON. Will be interesting to see which way the Euro moves.

12z ICON coming in cooler around WNC with some snow at the onset of precipitation. Several 0z Euro Ensemble members also had this idea. I think that this one is far from over.