Hvward

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

Like nrgeff said, thermals look good for mountain locations, below 1500’ could struggle. We just need the moisture.

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

A bit less of a positive tilt to the trough in 2017, also a much less expansive high. Models showed much less moisture leading up to the event but the GFS and Euro caught on within 36 hours. NAM had the storm pretty well but wavered with it some. Not exactly sure what to think with the less positive tilt to this look, but still thinking the precip shield expands north with more qpf. Reading back through the Mountain thread of 2017 and at one point in time we had the JMA, NAVGEM, & ICON? I think vs. the GFS, Euro, UKMET. Was a wild event to forecast.

Remember that time the NAVGEM nailed a winter storm from 4 days out that others weren’t really showing? Yep that was the overrunning event of Dec 10th, 2017.

Really liking the setup for Thursday, we have done ok in these type of overrunning events here in WNC. Think back to early Dec of 2017. Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.

0z EPS with a pretty decent signal for the 21st. Members average 3” of snowfall.

Euro showing a 1040 high dropping down in the LR. Thats something we haven’t seen all winter.

Waynesville seeing someone nice rates ATM. https://www.ashevillewx.com/affairs-of-the-heart-downtown-waynesville-nc-live-camera

Maggie getting a nice dose of NWF moisture. Like Met said moisture looks good upstream, flurries should move back into Downtown Asheville soon. https://www.ashevillewx.com/cabbage-rose-maggie-valley-live-camera

3km is amped again for the NWF tomorrow. Almost like a comma head develops on the backside as the low bombs out on the Delmarva. Then that secondary shortwave looks to be juicy. .

Looks to have lifted now.

CLT TDWR has been showing a couplet moving NE for the past 25 minutes. Could have a decent damage path from Lawdale towards Maiden.

ULL is going to amp up this NWF. Models are showing it catching the surface low quicker and quicker.

Beaverdam Creek is a river running down the fairways at Asheville Country Club currently.

That is a beast of a NWF setup on the 3km NAM for Friday. Low bombing out on the Delmarv and plenty of moisture on the backside to be strained out. Wicked winds should push snowflakes into many of the valleys if this comes to fruition.

12z EPS even more bullish with the trailing wave. This one could have some legitimacy. Let’s hope, just got my hot tub installed today!

Snowing In Brevard currently. https://www.ashevillewx.com/tj-hooper-nationwide-brevard-live-camera

0z NAM still seeing snow showers around WNC tomorrow. It hasn’t backed down.

So the 6z high res NAM has the Asheville Airport 4” of snow. The column is going to be very close to being frozen.

Dynamic cooling occurring, could be our only hope.

12z ICON not far off from what the 6z GFS showed.

Wow EPS really falling off over the past few runs. Several models today moving our weekend wave way out to sea. Hope that trend ceases. The Euro OP develops the Wednesday into Thursday wave though. Hard to trust any model with the various solutions they throw out each run.

12z Euro rolling out with a near perfect low track for snowfall in WNC next weekend.