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andyhb

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    Moisture is mixing out too much, temperatures getting too warm.
  2. andyhb
    Pretty much a no-brainer on the 21z RAP. There's enough columnar CAPE for robust updrafts as well.
  3. andyhb
    The LCLs on the 15z RAP and 18z HRRR are plenty workable for some tornadoes should the thermodynamics verify this way.
  4. andyhb
    Another EF4 tornado confirmed near Tylertown MS on 3/15. First outbreak to have 3+ violent tornadoes since 4/12-13/2020.
  5. andyhb
    High end EF4 tornado confirmed in Diaz AR from 3/14 with 190 mph winds. First violent tornado of the year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#LZK/202503150423/202503150423/111010
  6. andyhb
    Heavy damage reported from the earlier tornado near Plantersville and Maplesville AL, with deaths. Large tornado currently in progress north of Jackson's Gap in Tallapoosa Co. AL.
  7. andyhb
    3 fatalities near Tylertown MS with that earlier large tornado that went through there.
  8. andyhb
    Extensive damage near Poplar Bluff with possible fatalities, trailer park hit.
  9. andyhb
    At least 4 separate large tornadoes in progress simultaneously right now. This is insane.
  10. andyhb
    Large tornado in progress near Des Arc, MO.
  11. andyhb
    Tornado emergency for Van Buren MO.
  12. andyhb
    This one is a monster.
  13. andyhb
    There are multiple large tornadoes in progress simultaneously currently.
  14. andyhb
    Strong to violent tornado in the W STL suburbs right now.
  15. andyhb
    Large, likely violent tornado in progress near the MO/AR stateline near Bakersfield.
  16. andyhb
    Tornado in progress E of Marshfield MO.
  17. andyhb
    Those storms were elevated and did not appreciably change the environment very much.
  18. andyhb
    D2 high risk, only the third ever issued in the modern era of SPC.
  19. andyhb
    Think you absolutely need to consider a high risk for MO and W IL. 12z HRRR is a major tornado outbreak with multiple long tracked supercells.
  20. andyhb
    The 06z HRRR is one of the most extreme solutions I've seen from a high res model, both for today and Saturday.
  21. andyhb
    \ 06z HRRR is even more dangerous around St. Louis into W IL. Extreme shear near these cells with more than enough instability to utilize it.
  22. andyhb
    15 hatched tor added in the D1 generally centered on St. Louis and I-55.
  23. andyhb
    Honestly think there should be a main board thread for tomorrow and Saturday, given their overall potential magnitude.
  24. andyhb
    Incredible 00z HRRR run for tomorrow night. Really leaning towards this becoming a high impact event.
  25. andyhb
    That FV3 (which is a bad model to begin with) is a tornado outbreak with a big cluster of supercells. The NAM 3 km is notorious for being too cold in WAA regimes, which will make it much less likely to generate open warm sector convection. With that said, the convective signature it is indicating there looks like the start of a significant event.
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