andyhb

Would be best to wait until we get better sampling. The upgraded GFS hasn't necessarily been stellar recently, nor has the Euro at times. I agree that the 12z Euro would have some pretty nasty potential, if we see a consolidation towards its solution, people in the Plains (over a large area) better be paying attention.

Might add that another thing that could screw this up is if the ULL closes off significantly before the trough ejects. This would cause problems with backing upper level winds and EML advection (shown by the 18z GFS verbatim and some previous Euro runs). Also worth mentioning that the 18z run appeared to suffer from some possible convective feedback in the 81-84 hr period.

I already handled it, no need to pile on at this point.

I actually disagree a bit here just on initial signal, especially from the 12z GFS/Euro. This looks to spread stronger flow over most of the warm sector and has a stronger low level response earlier than the most recent system.

I'll also add that in the areas that didn't see cold pool stabilization, the GFS and Euro were both underdoing instability values rather significantly on Thursday, Friday and the weekend.

You're asking for fairness now after your behaviour on Saturday while the event was going on? Sorry to disappoint you, but that's not exactly how things work. Brett and Jim absolutely did not conduct themselves the way you did both before and during this recent event, end of story. I think Saturday could be a significant day, large upper troughs like that in May will almost always will afford some kind of severe risk. Also, the GFS has been showing a fairly decent looking EML being advected over the Plain states (not extremely strong, but not negligible either). How is a negatively tilted trough bad for severe weather? It may cause problems in the wind profiles in some locations, but it also generally means a stronger surface low, with accordingly stronger low level flow and stronger mid/upper flow overspreading the warm sector. Positively tilted troughs generally cause a lot more problems in the setup in the Plains.

So we're already going to start with this? Fantastic.

Pretty major league setup on the 00z GFS for next Saturday.

12z Euro agrees with the GFS in general, i.e. things are probably going to get very interesting towards the end of next week and beyond.

Optimism should be had (and is, based on his and Victor G's material over the last week or so).

Allow me to describe the 00z GFS mid/long range with the appropriate emoticons:

Long range 12z GFS and now the latest CFS chiclet SCP chart are going bonkers in the latter half of May. 12z Euro also looked to be setting something up in the late goings.

This has been growing less prominent on the GFS runs today. The Euro might not be bad either in central Texas and the Red River Valley as the convection fires early further west and moves into the destabilizing warm sector and a strengthening low level jet with time.

Hmm, 00z GFS not lending too much confidence in Saturday.

Seems to be forecaster preference over anything.

Been awhile since we've seen a May pattern (I suppose you could argue second half in 2013, but I digress) like that. And I see some pretty volatile May analogs showing up here (not just single events either, a few of these were prolonged active stretches)...

Yeah Saturday aside from that almost looks like a prototypical bigger May day, might be the best looking synoptic system we've seen so far with a pretty decent chance of kicking at least neutral tilt if not slightly negative with the upper jet ejecting out the base. LLJ strength looks solid on pretty much every day in this upcoming stretch. Not only that, but something tells me (after looking at ensemble guidance) that we aren't done after this either, i.e. what Thundersnow is mentioning.

Not a huge fan of all the signs of early initiation on Saturday on the models, especially further south into Texas (although that is something that could change fairly easily).

00z GFS looking pretty darn solid all things considered for this upcoming weekend (Saturday 5/9 specifically). Edit: UK/GGEM looking favorable as well.

I really like the LLJ strength on Wednesday, leading to large low level hodographs with relatively typical Plains profiles. Obviously the less than stellar for the season lapse rates (although GFS/Euro still both have 2000+ J/kg SB/MLCAPE in spots), possible early convection and questionable upper level winds are your three biggest issues (a bit better once you approach the OK/KS border and then further south into western/central OK on the left exit region of stronger 300 mb flow), but at least storm initiation/LCL heights seem reasonable.

It has more western troughing developing after that too (as does the GEFS and GEPS). 5/1991 has been showing up a lot in the CPC analog composites over the past few days. I feel like that month gets overlooked a bit given the magnitude of 4/26, but it had 335+ tornadoes, including 5/16/91, which was nearly as good of a chase day as 4/26 (although there weren't any violent tornadoes during the month). Also had the Lazbuddie, TX tornado carousel on 5/10.

Nino doing its work.

I saw his latest ERTAF and he had the week from the 9th to the 16th as above average for activity.

Most ensemble guidance indicates some form of western troughing developing towards the end of the first week of May (possibly with periodic shortwave ejections in advance), looks fairly promising at this time.

Might want to look at the 12z GFS/Euro for Friday. The Euro is particularly impressive.