andyhb

Poll is now closed for this. Most popular vote was 1200-1300. Tweeted about the new March seasonal forecast from ECMWF for AMJ and it looks active.

Paul Roundy was my OU advisor's phD advisor. This is another shot across the bow regarding this upcoming severe wx season.

2015 with more dry air aloft probably would’ve had at least two high risks in May.

@raindancewx I saw you post the TWC spring outlook elsewhere and am curious as to why you don’t agree with them for May/what your general thoughts for May are (for obvious reasons).

I will say that I’m willing to try my luck with an El Niño (contrary to Gensini’s tweet) given 2017 and 2018 were both Ninas and generally didn’t yield much chasing wise. 2015/2016 on the other hand...

Adding the new February run of the NMME to the growing signal for above normal precip in the Plains in peak season.

But one trough isn’t really a way to judge a whole season’s potential, especially one that requires phasing in order to reach any sort of potential. All you can really ask for at this range is a hint at a good large scale regime, hence my post. Obviously some of 2015’s setups didn’t reach their ceilings, but at least there were troughs/enhanced precip in peak season, which is more than can be said for last year in particular.

This is one of the stronger signals I've seen in recent years from the seasonal guidance (the other being 2015) for above normal precipitation in the Plains during the main severe/chasing season. There wasn't much reason for optimism last year given the near across the board signalling for dryness /well above normal temps heading into spring + the ENSO/tropical forcing regime we were in, but it definitely seems to be different at least on a larger scale. There is a lack of drought across most of the states east of the Continental Divide right now. California getting persistent stormy patterns with multiple heavy precip events is one of the changes from recent years too.

New CPC outlook hot off the presses for AMJ and MJJ looks very promising in terms of chasing.

Monstrous dendrites falling here along I-35 in North Norman. Deformation zone setting right up over the OKC metro.

Well I just picked a fantastic day to be flying back to OKC from vacation. Both the 00z and 12z OUN soundings showed a relatively classic ZR profile, although that should change later with dynamical cooling aloft associated with the cold core ULL. Could be the most significant snow accumulations in the region since Feb 1-2, 2011 (GHD storm). Saw a recent report of TSSN in Lawton as well.

That time of year for the annual thread as spring is less than three months away once more. Following another extremely quiet year with a record low for EF3+ tornadoes and zero violent tornadoes for the first time since at least 1900 (going back through Grazulis' records), we look to be coming out of a weak El Nino event with some potential for maintenance through the spring, along with a PDO that may hover from neutral through positive. Last spring saw an amazing lack of troughing activity through peak season in the western/central states, with winter essentially flipping to summer. Would not be terribly surprised if this season blooms (if it does) a bit later. Curious to hear general thoughts going into next season, hard to imagine one more quiet than this one for the Plains at least, although I thought 2014 took the cake in that department... Number of Tornadoes: 1170 First High Risk: April 23rd

Hey all, figured I'd drop my first post in here as a red tagger. ...now can we get an actual setup to talk about (who am I kidding, it's 2018 still)

Lol @ not being able to get 40 kts of flow at 500 mb in f*cking May.

I can sense the annoyance/boredom both in that and even in the SPC outlooks recently.

This year is very much reminding me of those insanely quiet periods between 1985 and 1988 where flow across the US just generally died in peak season. Poleward displaced Pacific jet is the main culprit of this, and that doesn't look to change anytime soon.

l'll take an order of the 12z Euro kplzthxbai. Out there from the 9th to the 14th.

Because the current run is the one that is running right now, not the displayed one necessarily. Since Wednesday is not in range yet, it defaults to the previous run when you try to display the data for that particular day.

The Euro data comes out from ~12:45 to 2 PM CDT during daylight savings. There's no way that site would have the 12z run in that far already.

....what are you talking about? That's the 00z run. Look: FH 168 hrs. 168 from last night's run was Thursday 00z. FH 156 from the 12z run today will be Thursday 00z.

00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive.

One main thing that really leans me away from the "oh no the season is over" scenario (beyond the fact that it isn't May yet) is the persistent troughing showing up across the Bering Sea and Alaska in the mid range guidance. There is a fairly strong Pacific jet with that. With the lack of a death ridge signal (more of just a knell in the flow over the next week and a half), one would think that some degree of equatorward amplification will take place in the west given this large scale setup. That cutoff/closed low off the SW coast, provided it does eventually get picked up and doesn't retrograde, could serve to clear the way for that eventual amplification.

Lol everyone is kind of watching time go by and seeing the uncertainty/anxiousness rise. This is nothing new. There is no need to be bullheaded about it either.

With a pitiful pattern it looks like heading towards May I might add. Upper flow over the CONUS dies with the unfavorable +dAAM/dt tendency. A lot of bad in the CPC analogs too with 2006 and 1987 showing up at/near the top (easily two of the worst Mays for chasing).

On the other hand, the CMC and UK have basically nothing because they aren't nearly as amplified with Friday's trough. Thing more or less just slides through the large scale flow as opposed to really digging.