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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    Yeah the band slipped south of them last night and was too convective yesterday. Major bust for them.
  2. andyhb
    Easily the event with the highest potential since Nov/Dec 2022 here, and especially E of Lake Ontario. Those 2022 events were more Erie-focused.
  3. andyhb
    Tug/Watertown area is going to get some crazy stuff with this one. Excerpt from BUF AFD.
  4. andyhb
    65 kt VROT on that cell now, probably a strong tornado.
  5. andyhb
    More of this coming in the next 48 hours.
  6. andyhb
    Holy shit 70 dBZ debris ball west of Newalla moving towards Harrah in the E OKC suburbs!
  7. andyhb
    Strong/violent tornado east of Comanche OK moving NE! Also a tornado moving into Newcastle from Blanchard.
  8. andyhb
    Holy jesus, just had a meso go right over top of me that then produced a tornado on the E side of Moore moving up towards Midwest City. That was way too close.
  9. andyhb
    Less than ideal considering we have storms going near I-40 in W OK right now.
  10. andyhb
    We might have severe weather problems on Halloween around these parts into KS. Trough orientation has become increasingly favorable with time and good moisture available for the time of year (low-mid 60s dewpoints).
  11. andyhb
    Fatalities reported in a large trailer park in Lakewood Park FL from that large tornado that tracked from near Fort Pierce up to Vero Beach.
  12. andyhb
    Massive wedge tornado in Fort Pierce!
  13. andyhb
    Wellington tornado is lofting debris over 20k feet. Hitting densely populated subdivisions as well.
  14. andyhb
    Big cone tornado in progress near Wellington FL.
  15. andyhb
    Not in the Atlantic basin.
  16. andyhb
    902 mb with a 39 kt wind, this thing is sub 900 again likely.
  17. andyhb
    Dry air and shear.
  18. andyhb
    One thing that would be unideal would be Milton impacting the northern coast of the Yucatan from the west, which would be an extremely rare event and would put Merida (the largest city in the state) and several resort towns at high risk.
  19. andyhb
    Kind of leaning towards this one underperforming given the magnitude of dry air and shear that begins to influence it as it moves closer to landfall. Environment is going to become very hostile and we should see rapid weakening from whatever the peak is.
  20. andyhb
    Yes. Anything south of the bay would mean water gets pulled out to sea from offshore flow on the north side of the eye vs. the bad scenario where it gets piled up by onshore flow in the right front quad.
  21. andyhb
    New NHC forecast has the M prior to landfall...
  22. andyhb
    Really very not great...
  23. andyhb
    Big signal from the 12z EPS members...
  24. andyhb
    Going to be piling on ACE quite quickly here with both Kirk (already likely a mid-higher end Cat 4) and Leslie (forecast to become a major). I've also seen some rather concerning intensity estimates from the 18z intensity guidance with the remnants of TD 11 that will become the Gulf low that has been discussed in here, notably from the HAFS. Going to be dependent on whether it can organize its core or not.
  25. andyhb
    That 130 mph/954 mb estimate is probably underdone. Looks closer to the border between Cat4/Cat 5 vs Cat 3/Cat 4 right now on IR.
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