HRRR solutions later are likely going to be pretty nuts if the 3 km NAM is already this aggressive across the warm sector (with supercellular storm modes).
Think we're going to need a specific thread for 4/4 given the potential magnitude of Tuesday's threat, but we have a large D7 15% area outlined in the latest D4-8.
Somehow the 00z Euro came in and outdid last night's 00z run in terms of insanity. A 971 mb low with plenty of moisture access. Absolute bomb.
Will just report my tweet here for the ensemble means, which all indicate that Tuesday could be a big day.
00z models look nasty for Friday in portions of the sub-forum. A couple of them have what would probably be a significant severe weather outbreak from the Mid MS Valley to the western Lakes.
Some very high end solutions here in the GEFS.