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andyhb

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Everything posted by andyhb

  1. andyhb
    Seems to me that some of this recent uptick in snowfall totals for those within the cold conveyor belt is an increase in coverage of the backside/deformation precipitation. One has to wonder if the general lack of convection further south may play a role in this. Ratios will no doubt be higher in this zone as temps crash behind the low.
  2. andyhb
    fatality
  3. andyhb
    18z NAM is a titanic bust for many lol. Have to think that the super warm December up north/lack of snow cover is contributing to all of these marginal temperature events. Basically a hangover from that. You essentially need a lobe of the PV to come down and bring the real cold like after this storm, but because the PV lobe is lagging behind this system, it doesn't contribute.
  4. andyhb
    Eh, historic would mean 18"+. The marginal temperatures are really putting a damper on what could be a top 5 storm.
  5. andyhb
    No other model has it that far north/pronounced despite many with similar SLP tracks. I have my doubts.
  6. andyhb
    NAM has this huge slug of warm air aloft at 850 mb + the surface temps are marginal. Cuts into snow totals significantly across the board.
  7. andyhb
    Eh? The Euro/EPS is stronger because the primary shortwave is deeper and more organized than on the GFS, not really due to phasing.
  8. andyhb
    Decided weaker/east shift on the GEFS. Historic storm off the table there.
  9. andyhb
  10. andyhb
    Lol main shortwave is too flat on the 12z GFS again.
  11. andyhb
    Those 00z runs were almost unanimous on a top 5 type snowstorm for Chicago and a wide swath of the Midwest. This thing is an absolute nuke when that shortwave kicks negative tilt and the mass evacuation really intensifies. The PV streamer into this thing is going to be a sight to behold on near-term guidance/satellite.
  12. andyhb
    Now with that said, there are a large number of members that are stronger/further north or west than the operational. Hell, the mean is nearly as deep as the operational at 108 hrs.
  13. andyhb
    12z Euro still has that slider/weaker look. Looks to track close to Cleveland.
  14. andyhb
    I'd imagine this one will be dubbed the MLK Blizzard if it comes to fruition.
  15. andyhb
    Widespread 50+ mph gusts pushing 60 at the lakeshore that run. Would be an upper echelon blizzard for a large chunk of the subforum.
  16. andyhb
    That is simply filthy at 500 mb.
  17. andyhb
    There are a lot of GEFS members with sub 970 mb solutions by the time the storm gets to the lakes this run. Definitely a majority.
  18. andyhb
    00z high res guidance is not painting a pretty picture for the central Gulf Coast tomorrow night. Incredible shear with 70-80 kt LL flow and the potential for embedded supercells. It’s going to be hard to keep that warm sector offshore with gale/storm force southerlies trying to advect moisture north.
  19. andyhb
    18z GFS is super weak and south, we’ve come full circle.
  20. andyhb
    …Euro is instead super dry, a bit too “slider-esque” still and too broad with the main shortwave.
  21. andyhb
    12z runs have been pretty stout thus far and the Euro is coming in shallower with the lead wave on Wed/Thurs. Seems to have better wave spacing between the two as well.
  22. andyhb
    I think it's more likely for the Friday system to get suppressed south/shift too weak than cut that severely. That -NAO block is stout.
  23. andyhb
    18z GFS is a higher end share the wealth solution. Ideal track for St. Louis, Chicago, and Detroit to get buried.
  24. andyhb
    Basically what it comes down to is that 1/11-13 shortwave needs to be the dominant one in the wave train for this potential with this to take off. In other words, it needs to be slower/amplify more in the west prior to ejecting into the Plains.
  25. andyhb
    If we see the ensembles start to emphasize that in-between shortwave more in the next few runs, then we’ll know it might be curtains for the high end. Going to be difficult to get 3 consecutive waves to amplify significantly regardless of your background regime. Edit: EPS mean still looks rather promising.
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