andyhb

Tomorrow could be a very serious severe weather event across KS and southward into OK, particularly in the evening. Incredible shear profiles will overlap with rapidly returning moisture along a 50-70 kt LLJ and weak CIN ahead of a rather potent dryline.

12z Euro is also a major event. Very volatile parameter space across a very large area with relatively subtle forcing for ascent and a weak cap is a recipe for trouble.

Really, really need a thread for 4/2-3 here soon. Major outbreak on the 12z GFS from IL/IN all the way southward to central MS.

Could be a pretty nasty nocturnal threat with this one especially closer to the Ohio River.

Volatile, potential widespread severe setup on the 12z Euro/EPS/AIFS next week around 4/2 @RCNYILWX. Have seen that synoptic pattern before and it's consistent with significant GL/Midwest/OV severe events. This has been showing up for several runs now while the GFS is off in la-la land.

Moisture is mixing out too much, temperatures getting too warm.

Pretty much a no-brainer on the 21z RAP. There's enough columnar CAPE for robust updrafts as well.

The LCLs on the 15z RAP and 18z HRRR are plenty workable for some tornadoes should the thermodynamics verify this way.

Another EF4 tornado confirmed near Tylertown MS on 3/15. First outbreak to have 3+ violent tornadoes since 4/12-13/2020.

High end EF4 tornado confirmed in Diaz AR from 3/14 with 190 mph winds. First violent tornado of the year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/#LZK/202503150423/202503150423/111010

Heavy damage reported from the earlier tornado near Plantersville and Maplesville AL, with deaths. Large tornado currently in progress north of Jackson's Gap in Tallapoosa Co. AL.

3 fatalities near Tylertown MS with that earlier large tornado that went through there.

Extensive damage near Poplar Bluff with possible fatalities, trailer park hit.

At least 4 separate large tornadoes in progress simultaneously right now. This is insane.

Large tornado in progress near Des Arc, MO.