I still would feel much more comfortable with the Euro coming on board. I think the 6z Euro made steps in the right direction. We will find out soon! That being said I am tempering my own expectations just because we have 2 more full days before the event would start.
I think I am more uncertain of the eventually outcome after the 12z runs for this system. Sheared out mess? Trough digs too far the west? I’m hoping we find the happy medium somehow.
18z GFS brings the snow axis back to the south putting the whole state back in the game. Obviously this will go back and forth more than a tennis match.
The 12z ICON made a similar move as the CMC with moving the trough and cold air eastward at the very end of the run. -63 degrees show up in the model for 12z Jan 14th just north of the border of Montana.