ErinInTheSky

There are 102 motor vehicle deaths every day in the US. COVID-19 killed 2,000 yesterday WHILE UNDER LOCKDOWN.

Granny dying is not the concern. The concern is having absolutely no medical system in the country. The loss of a medical system would be catastrophic. It's one of the most absolute basic things society needs to function.

This is what people keep not understanding. We don't control the economy, the virus does. They act like "opening up the economy" is as simple as flipping a light switch and that everyone will be fine with going about their day engaging in economic activity.

They haven't started yet but they are about to do so.

Also, right now the mortality rate is going up in the US. It is currently at 3.6% CFR. Of course it's likely lower than that, but some of the studies like that one study based on iceland are now out of date as their CFR is raising. The mortality rate numbers for this disease are off because it takes a really, really long time to die from this disease and people are often on ventilators for 2 weeks+ after going critical. But lets just imagine a world where this is like the flu. Only 8% of the US population is susceptible to the flu each year. We have no immunities to this, so around 80% are (technically 100% but the virus burns itself out when you get to 70-80% immunity). So even if this did have a mortality rate like the flu, unrestrained it would be like 10 flu seasons happening at once.

The comparison to the flu has become pretty laughable. It's killed as much as the Flu in the US in the span of a single month while locked down. It should become pretty clear we're dealing with something way, way worse than a flu.

Fact of the matter is, we are fully locked down right now and this virus is the leading cause of death in the United States while locked down. It's folly to think we'll be able to go back to normal. We might try, because we're dumb like that sometimes, but it'll be pretty quickly realized if we do that trying to do that isn't going to work.

It was pretty neat and entirely unexpected.

So ok it’s really more like graupel but there are definitely flakes in there.

No seriously. https://imgur.com/Ae6FDL1

WTF it's snowing in Germantown.

If this is indeed my calculus, I need to plan to buckle down for a long time. Probably need to add to my supplies stockpile so that I have more than a couple months.

The more I read the more I’m convinced we just pressed pause. We need to wait til we have the testing infrastructure and mask/glove/disinfectant supply chain Before we can open back up but it seems like a portion of the country egged on by the president doesn’t want to wait that long. We will be right back here times in a few months if they open early. I don’t have any answers. I think we are just screwed regardless.

Yeah, it's going to be very challenging for a lot of people. Honestly the biggest challenge that I see is our hospital systems. I have an elective surgery (that I really do need) and it's delayed indefinitely. That's with lockdowns. If we ease lockdowns, the hospital system goes to even more crap. What happens next time my dad needs a stent? What happens when my friend's diabetic kid experiences a crisis? People are dying right now not only because of COVID but because they can't get medical care. A 4-5 year delay on my surgery would destroy me.

It's not going to be "we will need to be locked down for 4-5 years" But I've been reading a lot of public health experts, economists, etc... and it's likely the disease will be with us for a long time, and it's going to completely change how we interact as a society. I don't doubt we will find ways to engage on socialization and economic activity again in the relatively near future once we get it rather under control. But it's going to wreck anything requiring the gathering of a significant number of people in one place for a while. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/ This is the best article I've read on how this probably looks longterm issues. It's likely going to be multiple, repeated lockdowns. School closures will be a regular part of life and we should plan to get resources available for distance learning. Things like national availability of broadband internet and chromebooks for kids, for instance, could become very important. Mass gatherings may be able to happen in the periods where there are no reported cases, but cases will pop up repeatedly and threaten to reignite the blaze. It's going to be a very tough next few years.

(This is one of the people working on a vaccine)

Even though this is for Louisiana, this is basically the case for everyone.

I don't see any chance Maryland returns to school. All it takes is one kid to start another infection chain and hit a ton of families quarantining and make us all start this whole ultra social distancing all over again.

It'll probably be fixed in an hour.

I believe that is an error. They've made errors like this before on Worldometers.

1,400 deaths this morning and we haven't gotten to evening updates yet. We may very well pass 2k/day today.

Right now, bodies are not piling up and we aren't even at peak death. Unrestricted spread of coronavirus is magnitudes worse than we are currently experiencing.

I'm kinda doing this right now haha.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, we really have no choice. We either lock down and it's bad, or we open up and it's worse both economically and death toll wise. Things shut down when the hospital system fails and bodies start piling up. The only 3rd way is a South Korea/Japan/China/Singapore/Israel solution: - Test EVERYONE. You have a slight cough, you get tested. Drive throughs everywhere. - Temperature checks at all public buildings - Massive state surveillance that way all who an infected person comes into contact with are notified - Massive adoption of face masks, mandatory any time you're outdoors. - Massive disinfection efforts in all public spaces. So I mean... we're left with 3 options that suck.

It's OK to be realistic. I'm with you. I'm perfectly fine shut in for a while until our country develops a strong, robust, South Korea like plan with extreme testing, contact tracing, plans for reignition of quarantines. Basically we need a real public health system. Right now we have a patchwork of different states doing different things with no centralized guidance.