ErinInTheSky

Agreed

What study shows 8x? I haven’t seen anything reputable. I’ve seen musings but I’ve seen musings about all kinds of numbers. Until we get some pretty intense testing I find that highly unlikely. No study with any modicum of validation has verified that in the least as far as I have read and I’ve read several.

New study shows coronavirus transmission distance is 13 feet and spreads on shoes: https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-transmission-distance-13-feet-spreads-through-shoes-cdc-report-2957363

15-20% of the population would mean something like 96% of cases go untested. This isn’t even true in Iceland where they do sentinel testing. I think hoping for significant population immunity right now and for much much much larger numbers than what we see in the testing reports is wishful thinking. Side note - there’s another way you actually see what under testing looks like. It’s positive rate. It appears that when your positive rate approaches 5-7%, you are testing enough to capture the majority of infections. Generally we are at 10-15% in the US right now. It seems we are probably missing about 50% of infections by not testing. That still puts us way under 1% infected right now unfortunately. These cases aren’t asymptomatic, they are usually just family members of an infected person who can’t get tested because of shortages.

A number of countries have gotten this under control with testing and tracing. We waited too long with lockdowns (or really, we didn’t adequately test/trace early) so it’s going to take us a while until we can use test and trace as our mechanism of control.

There is no evidence that we have even gotten close to herd immunity and this is just speculation. Right now the CDC site estimates about 25% of cases are asymptomatic. Studies (believe them or don’t) show 15-25% asymptomatic). Even if 50% are asymptomatic (I do not believe this but just for sake of argument), then NYC is still less than 1% infected. Herd immunity isn’t happening anytime soon.

Watched that storm in Mississippi from when it started, and watched Brad Arnold chase it. What a storm. Beautiful velocity signature. Wondering if I'll get some decent storms up my way tomorrow. I need some thunder.

Instacart pro tip: If you are having trouble getting same day and live in a populated area, every time you click “checkout” on your app and see a 4-7 day wait period, close the app. Reopen 5 minutes later and try again. You will eventually get a “within 5 hours” option.

It's a perfect pitri dish because you know the input and the output perfectly. Models can adjust for age. 15-20% asymptomatic is, after reading the sum findings out there, probably the most realistic. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/32171192 Found 13.8% looking at family clusters. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.27.20043836v1 Found 21% among younger individuals in Tibet. https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(20)30169-5/fulltext Found 4% asymptomatic among 328 patients. There are more. Most of the academic sources are asymptomatic in the teens (in addition to that Diamond Princess one). Note: Many of the above are awaiting peer review and nothing is super verifiable right now as it takes a LONG time for cases to progress from infection to symptoms in many people.

Not an academic study and in fact many of the people who were “asymptomatic” in that sample ended up developing symptoms. Actually I remember when people were pointing to this finding and saying it meant the death rate was something super low and the death rate has since gone up a ton in Iceland because, again, the “asymptomatic” was really just people really early in their infection. Iceland is awesome though, they are doing the right thing by testing widely.

Yeah and either way they're likely getting a ton of cases from district commuters.

Looks like my area of Germantown has a fair number of cases but it's not as bad as down in the Silver Spring area.

The Diamond Princess is probably the best data we have because it was a perfect pitri dish and it showed an 18% asymptomatic rate. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/publication/32183930

It hasn't. There are so many different reports out there and I've seen everything from 10% to 95% lol. There's no peer reviewed journal that can conclusively say what the asymptomatic rate is yet.

Look at Italy. They have been under lockdown since the curve started going upward. They got their new cases under control but like... it's not fallen that dramatically since then. The only country to have gotten the outbreak fixed AFTER rapid spread has been China. They saw the same pattern. They saw that they could flatten the curve, but they could not eliminate it without their draconian lockdown measures. Countries that aren't willing to use draconian measures are probably going to be stuck in lockdown, or forced to exit lockdown and unrestrained spread commences.

Declines are probably real. We've been under social distancing measures for a long time. But a decline is not necessarily a crashing of the curve, looking at other countries like Italy and looking at places like Wuhan, we're probably going to be at the 500-750 cases/day for a long time while locked down.

Because it likely wasn't. There's no solid evidence of the virus existing in the US much longer before the first official cases. Most of the "reports" are to .cn sites, basically trying to pass off that they weren't responsible and that it emerged somewhere else. There's a lot of disinfo out there. There is a report of a doctor who had flu in January who recently tested serologically for COVID antibodies, but it's more likely that he was later exposed, being a doctor.

Relevant to what we were talking about earlier: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/charlotte-woman-hasnt-left-her-house-in-three-weeks-but-tested-positive-for-covid-19/ar-BB12sjy4?ocid=st She didn’t leave her house for 3 weeks and had groceries delivered and STILL caught COVID via grocery delivery. This is why I have an intense process for dealing with deliveries.

RIP to a legendary thinker.

We're not doing this evenly throughout the country so while some places go down (New York), others go up (Michigan, Massachusetts, Texas, Georgia), and others are just sort of flatlined and not going up or down. I mean... I guess this is life now? We open back up and we're going to be on our way to 5k-10k-20k etc deaths per day, we stay patchwork we are just frozen.

When scientists eventually save the world, I hope we come out of the other end of this valuing science more than we currently do.

When facts become political it’s hard to avoid politics unfortunately.

DCteacherman’s comment went pretty far into politics and @DCTeacherman it’s generally not allowed here. That said I’m not going to get in an uproar myself over it because tbh, we have been talking politics this entire time just with innuendo.

The funny thing is we are all dancing around the politics here but you can totally tell someone’s political affiliation by seeing how they are treating the pandemic. That... shouldn’t be the case when it comes to science.

Sigh Not going to lie. Being cloistered up for so long now hit me with a bit of a depression funk today. I can't wait til we can socialize again. I know why we have to hold back right now, but damn, the day we can all come back to normal will be so wonderful. I hope that there is a normal that we can return to one day.