ErinInTheSky

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/us/coronavirus-updates.html 3,700 new deaths added from people who died at home of likely coronavirus in New York. One thing I’ve been worried about is that we may be seeing a false peak due to undertesting + an avoidance of hospital systems resulting in more at home deaths.

Hopefully the last week wasn’t a false peak.

2,214 deaths and climbing. More deaths than heart disease, vehicle accidents, and the flu combined. and that’s weeks under lockdown.

Agreed but unfortunately that discussion will bet political.

1,946 deaths and several states haven't reported yet. Today is going to be the deadliest day. :-/

I honestly do think, if we do everything right, June 1st is a good date to aim for: - Summer, which should lower transmissible some. Not a lot, it still easily seems to transmit in Southern States, but once we get real heat, it will help. - Gives us a long time to develop production of PPE, sanitizing chemicals, etc. - Gives us a long time to stockpile tests and hire people for contact tracing. - Schools are out anyway so no need to worry about schools. I don't think we'll see mass gatherings return until 2021 though. Sports with spectators in the stands are probably toast.

It doesn't help that we also staggered the shelter in places. The plateau, I anticipate, will last as long or longer than Italy's. And that's if we stay locked down. If we reopen, who knows. I think a second lockdown would hurt worse than a first.

Hopefully. I think we'll see a slow, gradual decline for a month or two. Italy has been declining though they are still at 60% of their peak. It takes a while of social distancing to keep the decline down. Doesn't take much for it to shoot back up though.

Yeah some pretty high death cases coming out today.

Also, I don’t get why these studies wouldn’t continue to follow these people for just 7-10 days afterwards given how we know it takes time to develop symptoms.

13.5% is 1 in 7 But I’m not sure pregnant women, who are likely seeing an increased exposure to hospital systems, are representative. Those numbers are more in line with EMS, healthcare workers, firemen, police. Basically people with increased exposure due to health care systems.

The point is... I think that people are going to practice social distancing by themselves now regardless of what governments do. We're seeing mass, behavioral change from people which is a good thing - it'll slow down the virus no matter what the heads of states declare. The unfortunate flipside of the coin to that though is that the economy is unlikely to react much to any sort of "opening."

Sweden's economy is tanking regardless. Swedish markets are down 17%, GDP decline forecast is -3.4% compared to the US's -2.8%, nursing homes are getting widespread virus. There's every indication that Sweden is seeing a restraint from economic activity even with their laxer lockdown. Ridership on their public transportation is 60% down, air travel is 85% down, events are being canceled, unemployment is rising and will be at 9% soon there. They registered more unemployment claims last week than during the 2008 crisis. It just goes to show that even "opening things up" a bit, people still aren't willing to engage in economic activity during a pandemic. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2020/0413/Sweden-broke-norms-with-low-scale-lockdown.-Is-it-working?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&cmpid=TW&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1586793414 "And while most businesses in Sweden are still operating, the economic cost of the pandemic is already being felt. Last week, 25,350 Swedes registered as unemployed, according to the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce – a larger increase than during the 2008 financial crisis." We're going to be in a global economic downturn no matter what. May as well restrict deaths while we're at it.

So uh. Was that it? Just blew through. It was 1 minute of intense wind. Mind you, the wind was VERY intense, easily could see trees down. But that was over in a heartbeat.

High positive rate means you're only testing people that are hospitalized or experiencing severe symptoms, meaning lots of people are just wandering about untested who likely have it.

Ideal world you want to aim for a 5-7% positive rate, that usually means you're catching all the cases because it means you are testing liberally. South Korea has a 2% positive rate, Canada 6%, Australia 2%, Norway 5%, Thailand 3.5%, Singapore 3.4%, Iceland 5%. All places that are basically testing everyone that even so much as has a chance of having the bug, all places with things fairly under control right now.

Yeah, Maryland is dramatically undertesting. That's WAY too high a positive rate.

In Fauci we trust.

I have no idea. I do plan to get the serology test when it comes out.

Oh awesome enhanced getting closer to us and wind warnings and thunderstorms spreading and.... and it's gone.

It’s an interesting study. It’s probably not representative of the country or even of Germany in the least. But it’s an interesting study that does support more widespread transmission. That said even in their study they found a 0.44% death rate so you could extrapolate to sort of figure out where we are at in the US. In the US we are at 22k deaths which would mean 5 million are infected or have been infected in the US. edit: that said their sample is still quite young (both demographically and the sample itself hasn’t been studied long) and there’s lots of time for that death rate to go up. Keep in mind German death rates exclude senior homes and such.

Yeah. It’s nasty lol. I’m staying away from it.

It would be far from the only virus that has a tendency to remain latent.

10% would be 30 million infected. Best case of 0.5% death rate means that we will know we are there when we hit 150k dead. I think right now we are looking at 60k dead so we are probably heading Realistically, best case, at 12 million infected (if you believe the best case 0.5% death rate). That would be about 4% infected in wave 1.

Yup. That would be terrifying and is one of the things we don’t know about the long term effects of the virus. This is why I’ve been practicing hardcore disinfection procedures in my home.