ErinInTheSky

We'll figure the rates out looking back after this is all said and done. Someone posted the Iceland study a few days ago but their CFR's are going up. Germany's have gone up too. Both of those countries have sentinel testing, which is awesome. Both will be able to have short lockdowns and come back to work early because they have a massive testing infrastructure. Good on them.

Oh I have a surgery that is delayed. It definitely sucks. I'm terrified for my dad should he need a heart stint. But I don't think that gets any better opening up the country again.

Right, of course. It all depends on how big that iceberg is. Either way though, at this point "rates" are kind of moot, real rates will be determined when this is all said and done. At this point it's raw numbers. The raw numbers are, a month into lockdown, 2k people a day are still dying. Imagine what those numbers would be with things opened back up for busines. So I am not seeing things open back up for at least another month, possibly longer, and it seems most of the general public is fine with that and supports it. Myself included. Thankfully.

I don't see how you or anyone can be confident in IFR numbers right now when Fauci and basically all scientists out there are saying that "we don't know."

It's because we are socially distancing and it's working. Even still we're getting 2k deaths in the country every day while socially distanced. Again, governments have the info to make these decisions.

It's directly from the CDC, and a number around 20% has been reported from many countries all over the world ever since China. 20% of people with this disease seem to develop a "severe form of illness" with the numbers we have available to us. It's not worth fighting over. You can work with whatever you want to work with, I'm working with what we can verify, and the state is taking all of this stuff into account when making lockdown decisions. They have scientists who I am sure know way more than you and I combined or so I hope.

Agreed.

It's the data the CDC has, it's what I've got to work with, and until there is increased testing, none of us know except for what we can see - that is, more people are dying daily from this disease even when we're under lockdown than heart disease, car accidents, and flu combined, and lots of people, including young people, are going to the hospital. So... I, like 81% of of people in that last poll, think continued lockdowns are important and personally, I'm staying as far away from this disease until it gets a bit more under control. Regardless of what you or I think though, we're all stuck inside right now and all agree this sucks and TBH, I'm not sure there's a whole lot you or I can do about it. This is nature, as people who follow weather we all know that well... mother nature will have her way sometimes. All we can do is hope to mitigate.

See above. The study I was working with shows a 20%-31% hospitalization rate. It's directly from the CDC. Even if it's 10%, I'm not risking anything. I've heard of many stories of people my age getting ridiculously sick, being in the hospital for 14 days, being on oxygen, being unable to walk up and down stairs for weeks afterwards. I'm having no part in it.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w#T1_down This was the CDC study I was working with: And yes, I do plan to stay inside. 81% of people right now support continued lockdowns. Not just for our own sake, but for the sake of the people we care about who are susceptible.

So... Not to get into the asymptomatic vs symptomatic and stuff, but 15-25% is what most studies show go asymptomatic, but even if the hospitalization rate is half of the 20%, it's still 10%. I don't want to go to the hospital and doing something that gives me a 10% chance of going to the hospital for 2 weeks... yeah. I'm going to avoid that. Also, something a lot of people aren't doing when it comes to these rates is dividing by two weeks ago. Most of the time for death rates and hospitalization rates you're seeing people divide today's hospitalizations or today's deaths by today's cases. But it takes 2 weeks to end up in the hospital, and then another two weeks after that to actually die.

This virus....

Yeah I saw that article posted about PG. Looks rough there.

New York giving 50 ventilators to Maryland. Apparently we are in need right now.

Yeah... 20% end up in the hospital, and with that comes lots of ugliness. For one, hospital bills, which a lot of us just can't afford. I have a 4 year old child and I'm in a custody battle, I can't deal with being away from him in a hospital for 2 weeks. Then if you progress to needing oxygen, the feeling of not being able to breathe. And like you said with the recovery. There are athletes and marathon runners who are finding it hard to walk up and down stairs recovering. To hell with all of that.

I've got all that stuff + my name change at the social security office. We'll see.

I am reading that you can add the direct deposit stuff Friday so that's a good sign. I'm more worried about my name change, as this is the first year I'm using my new name and I'm not sure the IRS will accept it.

" Payment Status Not Available According to information that we have on file, we cannot determine your eligibility for a payment at this time." Fun.

I have no idea how my check is going to go. My name changed and so lol. Who knows. I also don’t have my direct deposit on file, I pay by check.

Surprise surprise, people don’t want to die or kill the vulnerable around them. This is the main reason you can't just "restart" or "open" the economy. People's behaviour is changed and they won't return to normal unless they believe they are safe. People stopped going to restaurants before restaurants were officially closed by governments. People won't travel. They'll only reluctantly go to work if their office is open, but good luck generating business if no one is going out.

It's our highest by about 400.

2,400 deaths was the final total. A significant bump over yesterday.

Yeah. China had the benefit of a single point of origin. Unlike every other country where’s we had it blooming in multiple spots at once.

NY is only adding the deaths at home from respiratory disease consistent with COVID to the total, but they’re also reporting increases in deaths from heart attacks and strokes.

We have had a bit of a nationwide peak in numbers last week. Deaths and new cases have been fairly flat since then. Deaths went way up today though and that article about deaths at home increasing in major cities on top of the story someone just posted about hospitals seeing an uptick in critical cases... Bears watching to see how this evolves. It’s ugly that we are still getting 2k+ deaths a day and breaking records a month into quarantine.