ErinInTheSky

Hogan has been handling this like a champ.

Right, because we don't want to see 30 million infected in the span of a couple weeks, that would be a nightmare. Either way, honestly, a lot of this debate is for nothing. Public health officials have us locked down right now, 81% support being locked down, and a lot of us have no interest in playing with an unknown new virus. Even if things suddenly opened, which they won't, so it's a bit of an irrelevant point, we're not likely collectively to engage in high levels of economic activity until things are under control.

Smart and what I've been saying this entire time. Exactly what we need to do. Get PPE, get testing, get contact tracing.

Eventually yes, inflation will be a concern, but I think we have a long time until it becomes one.

Yup. And flu generally kills 150-200 or so a day, maybe 400 or 500 in the worst flu seasons on the worst days.

I think a lot of us are looking forward to the economy reopening. I do believe though that the reason we're still seeing extensions of shutdowns and lockdowns are because we don't want to risk wildfire like spread again rendering this lockdown useless. A second lockdown or slowdown because of rapid spread will be worse than a first. I really, really hope governments are working right now on securing as many supplies as possible for whenever they do end the lockdown.

Not necessarily, at least not to the degree you might be thinking, when all countries are doing it at the same time anyway. This is going to get political though (any discussion of economic theory ultimately does).

I am sure the public health experts and scientists are well aware at the differences between this and the flu, and are making decisions based on that as a result. I know there are theories out there that "everyone is already mostly immune" and "it's not that deadly" and "it's not that bad" but that's not what the sum evidence and public health experts are saying, and a lot of us personally know people suffering with this disease and nurses on the front lines struggling with PPE so....

Bandanas are the best right now. You can go post apocalyptic fashion in a great way.

Raw deaths give you a perfect picture of reality, it's literally what we are dealing with. Right now, if people are dying en masse while we've started to socially distance and quarantine and isolate, it shows how important it is, as many many many more will die without.

Deaths are a lagging indicator but it seems to lag case patterns by about 2 weeks. It's relevant to say while under lockdown. It looks like they're likely stabilized/plateaud at this 2k/day range. Judging from Italy, we'll likely be in the 1.5k+ range for quite a long time. It's relevant and shows how bad it could get with unrestrained spread.

I'm more saying, we're not willing to centralize our supply chains and response right now. I'm not talking about socialized medicine per se, which is a more charged political topic. Sorry - not trying to veer off into the other implications of it.

Agreed. And I think we CAN get enough collective willpower to do it. But we need some real leadership and centralized direction because right now we're being quite a bit haphazzard.

At no point in a flu season do 2k people die per day. Especially not under lockdown. Do the math on what that would be like with rampant spread, over a long period of time.

I don't believe mitigation is 18-24 months away, unless we seriously mess up the time we've bought... which I suppose is possible. Once we can have massive mask production + serology tests + contact tracing + effectively bring the numbers down to a point where we can effectively contact trace, we'll probably be able to start to move towards normalcy. True normalcy probably won't be here for 18 months though, that is true. But I don't think we'll be locked down like we are now for 18 months.

Flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

So here's the problem: We do not have a national health system, and we are not currently nationalizing our healthcare production, it's still privatized. Companies are VERY apt to not put a lot of investment into scaling up to meet a glut of demand when that demand will go away in a year or two. Multiple testing companies have already said this. Local labs with experience with scaling up for Swine Flu, for instance, saw huge revenue losses after it was over. That + massive supply chain problems in procuring testing swabs, chemical reagents, etc. means companies have very little willpower to significantly try to upscale their capacity.

We'll see. Pretty sure people being asked that question are keeping that in mind. It's not like people will just return to economic activity even if things are opened right now. Pandemics suck. They have sucked since the beginning of time. It's why when you think of "biblical", plagues and pandemics come up. We're going to have to all suffer together for a while to save lives and keep us as a society healthy. We'll rebuild.

New Jersey just reported 350 deaths... :-/ I have a feeling we're heading for another 2k+ day. Many states haven't reported yet.

We'll stay locked down until we can effectively mitigate, I wager. I trust public health and the scientists behind it.

The IFR of the flu is not 0.2%, and the IFR of this disease, for as well as we know, is well above 0.2%. The flu doesn't kill 2k people a day while under lockdown.

The vast majority of people support staying home for the time being, and it’s currently the law, and science and public health support it. I know you want to get out. We all do. But it’s not going to happen when there is a disease spreading that kills 2k a day while under lockdown. Not until we can mitigate.

This isn’t the flu.

Because public health dictates that this is a societal problem and not an individual one. The more people pack hospitals with coronavirus, the more it easily spreads among our healthcare workers, the less PPE we have, the more deaths we have, the more closures we need again in the future. We're in this together for better or worse.

I think some people feel like debating here and other places means they'll somehow be allowed to go outside and go to BBQs and movie theatres and restaurants again.