ErinInTheSky

The fixation on rates, of which we do not know and will not know until the disease is well over, and if which is affected by population makeup (demographics, how many are overweight, how many have preexisting conditions), instead of on the ground reality of 2,400 dying daily, continues to baffle me. Even in this magical world where Covid is just a flu with a 0.1% mortality rate which basically no scientist making this decision agrees with, 6-7% are susceptible to the flu any given year but everyone is susceptible to coronavirus, so it would be like having 10 flu seasons all at once in a tiny little time period.

Aren’t you glad it’s in the hands of public health experts and not a few people bickering back and forth on AmericanWx?

Nah, just more invested in preventing people from falling into the stupidity of thinking they know better than the scientists making these decisions. I have get “this is all a hoax” messages from my mom and dad, both of whom have preexisting conditions, on the daily. We all hope the disease is not as bad as expected but right now, 2400 people a day are dying here and that doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. It’s discordant to see that and all the suffering then to come on here with you pulling the whole “it’s just a flu” type song and dance.

He’s not, but he makes some pretty strong assumptions and inferences on what he feels is the true to reality picture. We need more data, everyone knows that, but the whole dance from “We don’t have enough data” to “this is all overblown and this thing is not nearly as bad as the lying media makes it out to be” is a little much.

Right now raw case fatality rate is 4.4% in the United States, and that’s not counting the people who haven’t been added to the total that New York will be reporting separately as “probable covid”.

Who knows. The data is the data and the scientists working on advising on these decisions have access to all the right data. Neither you nor I is an epidemiologist and right now we have 2400 dying a day. 2400 deaths a day isn’t sustainable. Nor is however many it would be if we let it spread unimpeded.

Yeah. June 1 is kind of an ambitious “everything has to go right” thing in my mind.

I think June 1 is when we will begin to see a relaxing of some things but I don’t think I’d call what I envision on June 1 as a full fanfare opening, everything is hunky dory sort of affair.

You’re tripping. There’s no way on earth we are even close to anything resembling opening up.

I know. God... just shows how bad this would be without a quarantine/shelter in place. 2,400 dead two days in a row. Many days in a row of 2k dead. This disease is terrible.

2482 deaths. Most deaths so far in a single day for this disease. And New York just recorded, with the evening update, it's largest single day new cases ever at 11,525. I don't think we are at peak yet, or at best, we are at a bad plateau.

As someone else who works with data, you and me both!

I made sure to tell my daycare the only way I was paying for their 1/2 price distance learning curriculum was if they kept their employees and his teacher. They did, and his teacher zoom's with him and his class twice a day, which gives me a bit of a breather.

2,259 deaths right now and there are still several more states to report. May be the deadliest day of the pandemic yet again.

It's hard for sure. Honestly my heart hurts that my son is missing time from his friends.

I will add though that with extensive contact tracing, it's likely some will end up shut down for 14 days at a time left and right when a contact trace connects to a daycare.

Yeah.... That will depend pretty hardcore where we're at by then. If we have new case numbers of like 10 per day in Maryland, then yeah... they can probably reopen and contact trace. I think that's honestly possible if we stay good about our lockdown til then.

I actually agree that June 1 seems like a reasonable date. 45 more days of lockdown should be able to bring the cases down to a level we can contact trace and manage. There may be more smaller lockdowns in the future though if clusters emerge. But they should be local/regional.

Don't be so sure lol. I love getting out of the house as much as everyone else. I miss movies and restaurants and I'm a deacon in my church and it sucks so badly that we're not meeting in person anymore.

Sounds good. I've been working from home for 4 years so... TBH not a ton has changed. Although I'd love to get out of the house again.

I'm not that prepared. But regardless I think we are heading in that direction either way, but I also don't think we'll be in full lockdown for more than a couple more months. But yeah. We're going to be economically depressed for a while. No matter what we do really.

Non-essential work from home capable crew represent!

Yup. The essential goods economy isn't going anywhere. The rampant pointless consumerism though... I'm honestly OK with collectively taking a break from it.

I mean... I have, lol.

Hogan has been handling this like a champ.